The South is key in the race for the White House

The Southern Political Report ^ | January 4, 2016 | Hastings Wyman

[2ndDivisionVet]

The South will play a crucial role in the 2016 presidential contest, both in the nominating process and in the General Election. For the Republicans, Dixie's plethora of primaries come quickly after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary and will probably determine the nominee. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's strong support among African Americans in the Southern primaries should cement her already commanding lead for her party's nomination. And in the General Election, at least three Southern states are likely to be competitive and may well determine the outcome of the race for the White House.

Until Iowa and New Hampshire vote, it is difficult to forecast a Republican winner in South Carolina or the rest of the SEC (for the Southeastern Conference). Donald Trump has polled well in almost all of the Southern states at one point or another; so has Ted Cruz. And if a more center-right candidate, such as Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, or John Kasich, gets anointed in the Granite State, he might make a run for it in the Palmetto State, where the Republican establishment often prevails.

On the Democratic side, African-American voters are a major component in most Southern Democratic primaries. In six of the Southern states, (AL, GA, LA, MS, SC and TX), black voters account for 50% or more of the Democratic Primary turnout. Polls show that Clinton is winning substantial majorities among non-white voters over Bernie Sanders, the Senator from Vermont, a state that is only about 1% black. Moreover, Clinton has been endorsed by 14 of the 18 Congressional Black Caucus members from the South, and all four Latino Representatives from Texas....

[brothers4thID]

An energized (aka: pissed off) white, evangelical, and suburban/rural electorate are key to recapturing Virginia and Florida in the general. Northern VA has turned into a liberal hell hole, and turnout was awful in the rest of Virginia for 2008 and 2012.

Expect Cruz to do well with Cubans in South Florida. Yes Hillary will do better with blacks voters, but she won’t incite groundswell of voter turnout among black voters— not like Obama did.

[datura]

The only place Cruz is leading Trump is Iowa, and only some of the polls. Not even leading Trump in Texas.

The SEC primaries will end the candidacies of nearly everyone.

Except Trump.

[brothers4thID]

Trump and Cruz are in a statistical tie in Texas.

[VRWC For Truth]

SHillary is DOA in the South. CA, NY, & MA give the witch 1/2 halff of the EV’s she needs..

[jsanders2001]

In other words the remaining sane part of the nation.

[political1]

If she wins Eleven key states she has the electoral votes. Remember that, 11 states beats 39.

[Wallace T.]

I don’t get your math. California has 55 electoral votes, New York 29, and Massachusetts 11. That is a total of 95. You need 270 electoral votes to win. More like 35%. However, it is a huge advantage, and even with Trump, I don’t see the GOP winning New York. However, he could well win New Jersey and Pennsylvania, pulling 34 usually sure Democrat electoral votes away. Trump would also have the finances and courage to take on the urban fraud that the Democrats have used since the days of Boss Tweed. Florida and Ohio, the two bellwether states, would likely go to Trump.

[SunkenCiv]

Poll FReep: If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for President of the United States?

[IronJack]

I don’t think you need to be a political analyst to know that

1) Hillary will get the communist ... er, I mean Democrat ... nomination;
2) The Republican nominee will be either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz;
3) Hillary and her Bolsheviks will carry the festering sewers of the urban Northeast and the open-air lunatic asylum that is the west coast, along with a few wannabe states in the Midwest (Minnesota anyone?);
4) The Republican will take the rest, including the South, the Midwest, and most of the mountain states.

It’s too early to start a state-by-state prediction, but Hillary will take the electoral votes from some pretty big states, which could very well put her over the top.

I would advise Mr. Trump and Sen. Cruz to chip away at her support in those big venues. The conservatives already own most of the land area. Now it’s a matter of numbers.