Posted on 10/09/2015 10:34:55 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
I wouldn’t say literally every center-left pundit I know expects Marco Rubio to win the Republicans’ 2016 presidential nomination, but it’s awfully close to 100%. For most of the political observers I know, it’s practically a foregone conclusion – the pieces have already fallen into place for the far-right Floridian.
Nate Silver recently said, “I sometimes feel with Rubio like he’s the contestant on a reality show where it’s totally obvious that he’s eventually going to win, but the network needs to create dramatic subplots for 17 weeks before it happens.”
And all of these assumptions may very well be true. As I argued a month ago, if the Amateur Trio currently leading the GOP polls fades, the race for the Republican nomination is likely to come down to two governors (Jeb Bush and John Kasich) and two senators (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). The Florida senator has reason to be optimistic – Bush is struggling badly, and Kasich is fading.
But there’s still that Ted Cruz character out there, and his current standing in the race is largely under-valued....
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
This guy must not know the same Marco Rubio the rest of us do.
I agree with everything you’re saying there. The GOP absolutely are prepping for Rubio. He’s their only shot against Hillary, and he might even beat her by a fraction. All bets are off there with Biden in though.
Even if Rubio inherits Jeb and Kasich support he’s dwarfed the combined poll percentage of Trump and Cruz. That’s probably why we are seeing attempts to divide this block. Cruz has been spared so far thanks to Trump making himself an irresistible target for the left and GOP-e. Without Trump in the race, I have doubts he’d overcome the level of attack ads sure to come his way.
I stopped reading after this:
“the pieces have already fallen into place for the far-right Floridian. “
I understand the process is long but when the actual voting begins it happens quickly.
As candidates get delegates and others drop out it becomes a sprint to the finish line.
Basically the month of March is the delegate selection time. Money money money is the
key to exposure in this type situation. We’ll see but I don’t see Cruz being in the mix
if he stays in the single digits polling wise. He’ll do good in Iowa a caucus state.
We’ll see in less than five months how it most likely will turn out.
The thing about Trump leading with 1/3 of the voters means that 2/3 don’t support him.
LOL!!! I guess we’ll have to consider the source on that one.
This big consensus that Marco Rubio is the guy of choice is a big lie that the media wants to put out there.
There is no consensus in regards to Marco Rubio.
Ted Cruz is and still is the candidate of choice of among conservatives.
Rubio is hard right? Really? Only a socialist would think that a pro-Amnesty big government liberal is even slightly right of center in this country. Rubio is unacceptably far to the left.
I believe Trump and Carson both will be most vulnerable and most powerful when Jeb and Kasich are finally pushed from the race. Many people are supporting Trump and Carson as placeholders for exactly the reason you point out but even Cruz I believe has to win Texas to be viable and I currently support Cruz as my number one pick.
Whatever the GOP-E does they have a very small window to dump Jeb and shift to Rubio and they have to do it before Super Tuesday otherwise I don’t see how they fight the narrative of both Rubio and Jeb losing Florida. If Trump or Carson starts clearing the primary board I don’t see how any other candidate stops them let alone the GOP-E. They have both managed to make themselves immune to attacks that normally would be fatal to other candidates.
“The thing about Trump leading with 1/3 of the voters means that 2/3 don’t support him.”
Which ALSO means (based on RCP poll averages):
92% don’t support Bush.
94% don’t support Cruz
90% don’t support Rubio
83% don’t support Carson
90% don’t support Fiorna
Which means WHAT exactly, anyway?
It means we’re both good at arithmetic. That’s all. These numbers will change as the herd gets thinned and there will be some big swings. Trump will not carry a large lead into the elections, if he even still has a lead by then. Might be a good idea to not open the bubbly just yet.
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