Posted on 10/09/2015 10:34:55 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
I wouldn’t say literally every center-left pundit I know expects Marco Rubio to win the Republicans’ 2016 presidential nomination, but it’s awfully close to 100%. For most of the political observers I know, it’s practically a foregone conclusion – the pieces have already fallen into place for the far-right Floridian.
Nate Silver recently said, “I sometimes feel with Rubio like he’s the contestant on a reality show where it’s totally obvious that he’s eventually going to win, but the network needs to create dramatic subplots for 17 weeks before it happens.”
And all of these assumptions may very well be true. As I argued a month ago, if the Amateur Trio currently leading the GOP polls fades, the race for the Republican nomination is likely to come down to two governors (Jeb Bush and John Kasich) and two senators (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). The Florida senator has reason to be optimistic – Bush is struggling badly, and Kasich is fading.
But there’s still that Ted Cruz character out there, and his current standing in the race is largely under-valued....
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
Go Cruz!
Rubio??? I’ll never vote for him, and I don’t think any conservatives will.
He’s going to have to knock out the other moderates to have a chance, and so far, he hasn’t shown any killer instinct.
Short of saying ALL the right things, ALL the time from now until (and INCLUDING) the debates... Rubio is a NO for me!
I don’t see him doing that. He’s nowhere near firm enough on what matters and can’t stand up to Cruz. The debates will prove that.
I’ll never vote for the back-stabbing weasel, he burned his bridges to conservatism when he joined the Gang Of Eight and schemed with Schumer against the citizens.
The Cheap Labor Express has already paid the RNC for an amnesty candidate.
¡Yeb! has been honest that he’s a Democrat in an R jersey and his poll numbers reflect that.
Lying Rubio is still trying to bamboozle conservatives.
Anyone with any sense knows he cannot be trusted.
In order to keep his super pacs, Cruz has to do what his handlers tell him to do and when...if not, he looses...
Trump on the other hand, doesn’t have to worry about handlers, and has more money than Cruz...
I won’t vote for Cruz unless he is on a Trump/Cruz ticket, other than that, I think Cruz would be a good Supreme Court Judge...
Rubio is going nowhere . He is pro Amnesty “GANG OF 8”. There will be no Amnesty candidate that gets the nomination because this party will not ever support amnesty. He would have had a chance if he had not blown his own foot off with amnesty.
Cruz is great!! He explained yesterday how Obama is violating his own law in allowing his donors to trade with Iran. He is certainly the best Constitutional Lawyer I have ever heard speak.
Cruz is the best candidate in the bunch.
Yeah it just got to be one on the single digit guys. They, at least, are one of us DC insiders. It cannot possibly be one of those nasty outsiders leading in all the polls! /s
“MSNBC makes it move.”
You have to give credit where it is due.
The media is trying hard to pick our candidate.
“I wouldn’t say literally every center-left pundit I know expects Marco Rubio to win the Republicans’ 2016 presidential nomination, but it’s awfully close to 100%. For most of the political observers I know, it’s practically a foregone conclusion – the pieces have already fallen into place for the far-right Floridian.
Nate Silver recently said, “I sometimes feel with Rubio like he’s the contestant on a reality show where it’s totally obvious that he’s eventually going to win, but the network needs to create dramatic subplots for 17 weeks before it happens.”
Simply delusional. Makes the things Glenn Beck says sound sane.
Apparently Trump polling 1/3 of the Pub voters and everyone else being WAY behind isn’t actually happening on this Earth in this dimension in this galaxy, but is happening on some alternate Earth in some parallel dimension in some other galaxy.
Would be funny if after all this condemnation of the Republican party for hating Latinos puts up a Cruz/Rubio ticket.
I can see the rats heads exploding.
“I wouldn’t say literally every center-left pundit I know expects Marco Rubio to win the Republicans’ 2016 presidential nomination, but it’s awfully close to 100%. For most of the political observers I know, it’s practically a foregone conclusion – the pieces have already fallen into place for the far-right Floridian.”
This smacks so much of the bewildered NYC socialite who wailed that they couldn’t understand how Nixon had won, because no one the socialite knew had voted for Nixon. The left refuses to leave its echo chamber, and as a result comes out with utterly oblivious statements like Rubio (currently polling barely above the single digits) winning the Republican Primary.
Cruz is certainly a contender. He continues to raise impressive amounts of money as this article points out he also is best positioned to attract Trump and Carson voters if something deflates them though I’ve come to doubt that is really going to happen. Looking at the polling outside of a few limited outlier polls there’s no evidence that either Trump or Carson are going to give up the top two positions in this race at least not without a major re-shuffling due to candidates dropping out.
The only pathway to Rubio’s success is for Jeb Bush and Kasich to get out of the race. Kasich has cratered in Ohio and Trump and Carson lead there now just as they do every where else that has been polled. If the GOP-E want to remain relevant Rubio is their best shot. However Rubio is unlikely to attract all of Bush and Kasich voters which even when combined in most cases would only eke out a 3rd place in the polling by themselves. The latest national poll even if we combine all of the support for Rubio, Kasich, and Bush they still only manage a 2nd place behind Trump. Even throwing in Christie’s support for good measure Trump still leads them. So this idea that Rubio is some sure thing is naïve at best but honestly he is probably their best bet out of bad options(from their perspective).
I fully expect those candidates with money to remain in the race till the first primary at least. I don’t expect any of the other 1 percenters to break out and rise. They have no money and they have no unique appeal not already covered by the other candidates at the top. Paul and Christie are the most likely to drop out because they really don’t appear to have any steam left financially or politically. Paul will eventually have to make a decision whether he wants to waste his time running for President or keep his Senate seat. I think he will choose his Senate seat rather than waste his political remaining political capital on a Presidential run that is going no where.
The big problem most of the candidates have is they have not learned from Trump and Carson how to manipulate the media. Both Trump and Carson are using the media’s desire to attack them to make themselves stronger. Trump has benefited particularly from getting other candidates to attack him. When they attacked him demanding he be politically correct it hurt them considerably. Rubio is particularly vulnerable if his political capital rises because he will have to go head to head on issues of immigration and a wrong step on his part will doom him because he already has lost a lot of trust where the grassroots is concerned.
I’ll be truly surprised if both Trump and Carson don’t make it to the first primary not in the top 2 spots nationally. Jeb Bush will eventually be forced out of the race. He really has to win New Hampshire to remain credible. However If he insists on continuing on Florida will be his end and possibly for Rubio too. If they don’t win their home state its over for them. Which illustrates the conundrum that Bush supports face. If Bush stays in to Florida in a weakened state all three of the strongest “establishment friendly” candidates Rubio, Kasich, and Bush will be facing possible simultaneous losses in the states where they should be the strongest. If that happens there will not be much left for them to choose from and if Trump and Carson manage to win clear majorities in the Super Tuesday primaries the end result won’t be in doubt.
I guess that left of center includes Krauthammer and dozens of other "moderate" GOP types.
That was my reaction as well, what’s the impact of either a Cruz/Rubio ticket, or vice versa?
Would Conservatives vote Rubio/Cruz, like they did McCain/Palin in 08?
One factor tho is that both are of Cuban heritage. I’ve heard, with my own ears, Hispanics state that Cubans aren’t really Hispanic.
Always fun to read just how clueless the left is about GOP electorate.
The Left’s addiction to NLP is truly tedious. They can’t even convince their own followers of their crap anymore, so they don’t even try - it’s all compulsion programming now.
Cruz is the best candidate in the bunch.
****************
That is a statment with a lot of truth. However, Cruz has yet to find support in the groups polled
to the extent he can be a winning player. In four months the process begins with two caucuses states
(Iowa and Nevada) and two voting states (New Hampshire and South Carolina). Then Comes March 1,
with 10 voting states and two caucus states. Then during the rest of the month there will be 10 more
voting states and four more caucus states.
So it seems like a long time off but in reality it is fast approaching. I know Cruz has boots on
the ground in the early states but Trump has money to burn. Just how burnt money will impact the
race we’ll see I suppose.
It is a marathon, not a sprint. As the losers start to drop he will end up positioned to make a show in the primary.
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