Posted on 09/24/2015 11:36:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
MANCHESTER, N.H. —New Hampshire Primary Source covers breaking and behind-the-scenes news and analysis on the New Hampshire presidential primary and all things political in the Granite State. John DiStaso is the most experienced political writer in New Hampshire and has been writing a weekly column since 1982.
WHO’S NEXT? The first two casualties of the 2016 presidential campaign were predictable. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker began with high expectations, especially Walker.
Walker was viewed as a conservative champion following his battles against public employee labor unions and his ability to get elected twice and survive a recall election in a blue state.
As a governor and a former governor, Walker and Perry portrayed themselves as Washington outsiders, so it’s interesting that they were the first two to go. They were casualties of the rise of the “outsiders’ outsiders,” Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.
Will there be more culling of the field anytime soon? And if so, who’s next to become a former presidential candidate?
We asked nearly a dozen New Hampshire political observers, all uncommitted in the Republican race. The consensus was mixed.
Those named most often were Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul. But there were also “votes” for many other struggling Republicans.
Several experts said that low-budget candidates, such as former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, will be able, if they wish, to hang around longer than those with bigger campaigns.
They pointed out that Paul is on the ballot for re-election to the U.S. Senate next year and if he fails to improve his standing, he’ll have to decide which office he will pursue.
“The continued uncertainty around his Senate race complicates what otherwise would be a lay-up for Republicans,” one observer said. “The battle for control of the Senate is going to be fierce, and the GOP can’t afford to be spending any time or resources on Kentucky.”
This, of course, assumes that maverick Paul, even if he continues to struggle, will follow the directions of the party establishment, including Senate Majority Leader and fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell.
“Bobby Jindal,” emailed another Granite State observer. “He has no money, no poll numbers, no compelling reason to be in the race. “Gilmore, Pataki and (U.S. Sen.) Lindsey Graham are in similar shape, but they lose nothing staying in. Jindal, however, has nowhere to go. His term is about to end. No U.S. Senate seats are about to open up in Louisiana.”
Another observer said governors who are not performing well in the presidential race cannot afford to continue a presidential campaign without facing major backlashes in their home states.
“They have day jobs,” this observer said. ”My guess is that Jindal’s next, then (New Jersey Gov. Chris) Christie. But even though Rand Paul is not a governor, I’d put him in the top three as well.”
A longtime political expert sees only three Republicans surviving past the New Hampshire primary: U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, whom he called “the GOP’s Robert F. Kennedy”; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, because of his financial resources; and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, as the surviving conservative alternative to the establishment, “with enough money to hang around.”
“I know this much,” the expert told us. “Neither Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina nor Ben Carson will be the nominee. Bank on it.”
We’ll see.
Another uncommitted Republican predicted Carson is headed out of the top tier and wondered “why (former U.S. Sen.) Rick Santorum is still in. I love to listen to Lindsey Graham, but I think he is almost out of money, although I think he will hold on until the next debate.”
This observer concluded: “Good for all of them and for us that the culling has begun.”
A Granite Stater who has been involved in politics for decades, and is uncommitted in the current primary, put it this way: “No one will leave until after Iowa and maybe not until after New Hampshire. But if CNBC (which is broadcasting the next GOP debate, on Oct. 28) decides not to hold an early ("undercard") debate, then Jindal or Pataki could go.”
And still another Granite State political observer predicted that the GOP field will narrow dramatically. This expert had no particular order, but told us he saw “no path” for Christie, Pataki, Paul, Graham, Gilmore, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Santorum and Jindal.
Who’s your pick?
WHAT DOES LOU KNOW? Wednesday morning on Jack Heath’s "New Hampshire Today" program on WGIR-AM, Democratic state Sen. Lou D’Allesandro said that in his “personal opinion,” Gov. Maggie Hassan is gearing up for a run for the U.S. Senate.
“Yes,” he told Heath, “I do think that she’s moving in that direction.”
Later, D’Allesandro told us he was voicing his personal opinion “based on what I see happening” and insisted he had no inside information from the Hassan camp. He said he based his opinion on the interest expressed in running for governor by Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, state Sen. Andrew Hosmer, Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen and former state securities bureau chief Mark Connolly.
“It’s my best guess, based on everything I have seen,” he told us.
Earlier, he told Heath, “I’d be surprised if (Hassan) didn’t (run for the Senate), to be honest with you. That’s being honest and being frank.”
Hassan, of course, has said that she wants to make her decision “sooner rather than later” – an indication that she will announce her plans sometime next month.
WHAT ABOUT JEB? Jeb Bradley, that is. The state Senate Majority Leader and former congressman is very much a topic of conversation in state GOP circles as a potential candidate for governor, now that the state budget has been passed and the legislative session is finally history.
Will he run against Executive Councilor Chris Sununu in a GOP primary next year – not to mention state Rep. Frank Edelblut, who is exploring a run?
Maybe.
“I am considering what my options are,” Bradley told New Hampshire Primary Source this week. “But I want to spend a little bit of time now that the state budget has been resolved listening to what people think.”
Bradley made it clear that if he does run for a higher office, that office would be governor.
“I have no interest in the First Congressional District,” a seat he held for two terms in the early 2000s, he said. He also made it clear he is strongly supporting U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s re-election bid.
“I need to make some decisions on how I see the next two years unfolding,” Bradley said. “The budget took longer than it should have. But we’re done and we have an agreement that accomplishes the top priorities that people like me advocated for some time, primarily lower business taxes. I’ve made jobs my priority ever since I was in the New Hampshire House and the U.S. House, and, in particular, again in the state Senate.
“It’s not always easy to find common ground while maintaining your principles, but I think in the last two years, we’ve proven that under civil leadership, we were able to do that.”
As for a potential run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination against Sununu, Bradley said, “He is a good friend but I haven’t had a chance to sit and talk about it, yet.” He also called Edelblut, an “up-and-coming” player in state Republican politics.
NATIONAL RLC CONVENTION. In two weeks, hundreds of conservatives with gather at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Nashua for a national convention of the Republican Liberty Caucus.
The Oct. 8-11 event has so far confirmed appearances by GOP presidential candidates Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Mark Everson, a former IRS commissioner, program chairwoman Di Lothrop told us.
Lothrop said the RLC is waiting to hear from other candidates.
There is a long list of speakers. It includes Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, television talk show host Joe Scarborough, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele and author and entrepreneur Wayne Allyn Root.
The event will feature panel discussions on a wide range of issues, from the budget deficit and immigration to the Affordable Care Act, the Federal Reserve and the “Secession Movement in the United States.”
CARPENTERS BACK HILLARY. Hillary Clinton, after picking up the endorsement of the national United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America, was backed by the affiliated New England Regional Council of Carpenters on Wednesday.
The union said she “understands that economic recovery has to reach beyond the very wealthy, and the best way to do that is protecting workers rights to organize, fair wages, benefits, and equal pay for equal work.”
The Clinton campaign will open its ninth state campaign office Thursday evening. Former U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes and Lou D’Allesandro will attend to discuss Clinton’s plan for lowering prescription drug prices, her campaign said.
Wednesday, the campaign unveiled a 35-second video in which Clinton tells Granite Stater Mary Ann Lawton, whose daughter has a chronic illness, that she will work to lower prescription costs.
QUICK HITS:
NEW CRUZ STAFFERS. WMUR.com first reported on Twitter this week that Ted Cruz’s campaign added three field staffers, bringing its total number of paid staffers to five. Joining the campaign were state Rep. Josh Moore of Merrimack as field director and faith-based outreach director; Michelle Trant of Londonderry; and Chistian Andzel, who is relocating to Manchester from Buffalo, New York.
FPU FORUMS. Franklin Pierce University, the National Wildlife Federation and the New Hampshire Audubon Society will hold presidential forums on energy and the environment on Oct. 8 and 23 from 7 to 9 p.m. at the university’s Manchester campus. The Oct. 8 forum will be moderated by former U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg, while former state senator and Public Utilities Commissioner Clifton Below will moderate the Oct. 23 event.
CHRISTIE IN NH FRIDAY. Chris Christie will return to New Hampshire on Friday with his wife, Mary Pat. She’ll hold her first solo campaign event at 3:30 p.m. at the Village Bean in Windham, while the candidate will hold his 23rd New Hampshire town hall at 5 p.m. at the Boston Billiards Club in Nashua.
Saturday at 10 a.m. Christie will visit the New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the NASCAR UNOH 175 race. At noon, he’ll attend a rally at White Park in Concord hosted by Hope for New Hampshire Recovery, a nonprofit that supports substance-addiction recovery.
And at 1 p.m., Christie will attend a house party in Derry hosted by two supporters, Rockingham County commissioners Kevin Coyle and Tom Tombarello.
BERNIE’S BACK. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders will be in New Hampshire Friday at 6 p.m. to speak to the Portsmouth Democratic Committee’s annual banquet at the Portsmouth Harbor Events and Conference Center.
BUSH RETURNS NEXT WEEK. Jeb Bush will be in New Hampshire on Tuesday for a dinner hosted by Portsmouth business executives Renee and Dan Plummer, and on Wednesday for an evening town hall in Bedford, with the time and venue to be announced.
BACK FROM JORDAN. D’Allesandro did not attend Saturday’s New Hampshire Democratic Party State convention. Why?
He was in Jordan, delivering the first-ever commencement address at the American University of Madaba, a nonprofit university that opened in 2011.
D’Allesandro said he addressed more than 1,500 people, including the bishops of Jerusalem, Nazareth and Bethlehem. He said the university was initially funded by the Vatican, but is nonsectarian.
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT. In other international news, former state Rep. George Katsiantonis of Manchester was elected to the Greek parliament this week. He is the younger brother of current alderman and state Rep. Tom Katsiantonis.
THIS WEEK ON CLOSE-UP. This week on “CloseUP,” WMUR political director Josh McElveen will interview former U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, University of New Hampshire political science professor Andrew Smith and Rich Ashooh, the newly named interim director of the Warren B. Rudman Center for Justice, Leadership and Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire Law School.
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY VAULT. In the latest New Hampshire Primary Vault, WMUR political reporter Adam Sexton discusses the 2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary from the perspective of Joel Maiola, who was the campaign manager for then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Bush lost that primary to U.S. Sen. John McCain but went on to win the Republican presidential nomination and, ultimately of course, the presidency. Click here to view the interview.
Please be Bush, Please be Bush, Please be Bush!!! Nobody wants to see another Bush or Clinton in that position ever again.
I will vote for Dez Nuts vefore I vote for another Bush.
Actually I don’t want too many to drop out including Yeb. A divided field helps Trump.
Bobby Jindal would be a good president, but he’s not a strong candidate at this point in his life. I’d like to see him quit as soon as he’s gained whatever national campaign experience he needs to better prepare for 2024, when President Cruz leaves office. For now though, he’s just splitting the conservative vote.
Similarly, I’d like to see Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum leave so they don’t split the conservative vote. They just aren’t national candidate material.
I don’t care if George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, John Kasich, and Jim Gilmore stay or not. They don’t have enough support to do any good or any harm.
As for Chris Christie and Marco Rubio, I hope they stay to split the pro-Amnesty big government liberal vote with Jeb.
I want Rand Paul to leave. He’s useful in the Senate but not going to win the White House. Like Jindal, he needs more experience to be effective on the national campaign trail.
That leaves Cruz, Trump, Carson, Carly Fiorina, a third-party candidate to be identified later, and then Rubio, Jeb, and Christie in that order.
Pretty clever analysis with many good and insightful points.
Good post.
I will agree with the devided field, I am a Cruz supporter over Trump ten fold, but I would vote for Trump in the main if it came down to it. However I am getting tired of how he always mentions how rich he is. Integrity is not what you have in your pants, or what you have in the bank, for him its more ego and arrogance that turns me away from him.
If he is your candidate then by all means support him. I would thing he would be a great leader, however I am not looking for a leader, I am looking for a representative, a representative of conservative values. Elected officials should never take the role as our overlord or wanna be overloard like 0bama. That is how he got elected, the slight majority wanted a leader of progressive ideals, others voted for him to be hip, and others to avoid being called racist.
In my opinion, Trump has yet to show signs of being humble, honestly this election cycle I hope he learns it.
I’ll disagree with you about Kasich. He’s a pro-amnesty big government liberal. He could easily be the elite backstabbers “plan B” if allowed to stay around and gain some traction before his record gets the scrutiny it deserves.
>> I’d like to see him quit as soon as he’s gained whatever national campaign experience he needs to better prepare for 2024, when President Cruz leaves office.
I like the way you think.
Kasich has 3% support, consistently below even Christie. Until I see something more interesting from him, I'm not worried about him as Plan B because he's not likable or effective on the campaign trail.
In Kasich's re-election as Governor of OH, he was quite vulnerable. He's all in for his deep pocket sponsors and doesn't do anything to stand up for conservative principles. There hasn't been much trickle down to communities or economic improvement for OH residents. There's a surplus of billions in the OH treasury, just waiting for the next annoying construction project.
The dems ran a poorly vetted, flawed to the point of being laughable candidate. And you know what? Kasich upped his game and ran a brilliant campaign with great timing and enthusiasm. He won areas where Romney refused to run.
I can't think of any issue where Kasich has stood by US citizens and lessening government's stranglehold over our lives.
Cute post.
Why it’s Hillary Clinton because she’ll be going to jail! Now... wouldn’t that be news?
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