Posted on 08/27/2015 9:08:01 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The rise of Donald Trump is, in part, a function of a vacuum.
He is thriving in a Republican field that is large, talented and, so far, underwhelming. There’s 17 candidates and nothing on. Except Donald Trump.
Now, this has much to do with the media, and with Trump’s unique qualities as a showman. He has the advantage of not caring, about anything apparently — the facts, his reputation, or, ultimately, winning the presidency. In consequence, he is a free man.
The Jorge Ramos incident was Trump in microcosm. He did what no other Republican politician could get away with (having a security guy manhandle a Latino reporter) and displayed a cavalier disregard for reality by denying he was having Ramos removed, even as he had him removed. But the episode was mesmerizing, and Trump — in his madcap way — was commanding in how he handled it.
If any other candidate had done that or something similar, it would have been a signature event of his campaign, but for Trump it was just another day on the trail, to be eclipsed by some other memorable event tomorrow.
Trump has at least half a dozen such indelible moments — his bizarre announcement, the John McCain diss, the Lindsey Graham cellphone, the Megyn Kelly fight (x2), the Mobile rally — when the rest of the field has almost none. No speech, no policy proposal, no argument, nothing from the other candidates has come close to capturing the imagination of voters, giving Trump the space to loom all the larger.
The weakness starts at the top, or what was supposed to be the top. In the normal course of things, the establishment front-runner provides coherence to the field. Hence, the expectation that the field would have Jeb Bush and a not-Bush, or maybe two. For the moment, this assumption has collapsed, as the current shape of the field is Trump and everyone else.
This is quite the comedown for Bush. His “shock and awe” has turned into getting sand kicked on him at the beach by a loudmouth and bully. It’s not just that Bush is trailing Trump badly in the polls; he has acceded to the terms of the debate being set by the mogul. It wasn’t long ago that Bush swore off talking about Trump, as basically beneath him. Now, he is sniping with him daily.
Before he got in the race, Bush spoke of only wanting to do it if he could run joyfully. Little did he know that he would be joyously grappling with an ill-informed blowhard who takes it as his daily obligation to insult Bush and trample on the pieties he holds dear.
In the argument with Trump over mass deportation, clearly Bush is right. But the split screen with Trump doesn’t necessarily do him any favors. Trump is such a forceful communicator that he comes off as some sort of throwback alpha male, whereas Bush is such an earnest wonk he looks and sounds like a sensitive dad from a contemporary sitcom. It’s like watching a WWE wrestler get a stern talking to from Ned Flanders.
Bush is not a natural performer to begin with (he struggles with set speeches), and he believes his contribution to the race is to be the nonthreatening Republican, which is often indistinguishable from the uninteresting Republican. So while Bush has methodically built the superstructure of an impressive campaign — with fundraising, organization and policy proposals — he has so far barely warmed up an ember among voters.
Scott Walker, in contrast, had a surge early in the campaign. It dissipated over time when his limited preparation on national issues didn’t match his outsized early press exposure. A so-so debate performance and the rise of Trump have continued his long fade to middle of the pack in the latest early state polling (tied for fourth in New Hampshire and tied for seventh in South Carolina).
Walker’s ability to appeal to both the establishment and activist wings of the party had looked like a strength, but now it seems a precarious balancing act, made all the more difficult by a panicky reaction to Trump.
No sooner had Walker pronounced himself “aggressively normal” in the debate than he seemed to opt for just “aggressive” in an attempt to play to the passions tapped by Trump. Who could have predicted that the Midwestern candidate who tells stories about buying shirts for $1 at Kohl’s would have to play populist catch-up with the New York billionaire who travels by eponymous helicopter?
Walker had already changed his mind about immigration, shifting from support for a “comprehensive” approach to strong opposition to amnesty. Trump has pushed him further, and Walker has gotten tangled up on the issue of birthright citizenship.
Walker had already changed his mind about immigration, shifting from support for a “comprehensive” approach to strong opposition to amnesty. Trump has pushed him further, and Walker has gotten tangled up on the issue of birthright citizenship.
At the Iowa State Fair, he seemed at one point to say that he was opposed to it. Then, he told John Harwood of CNBC he wouldn’t take a position on it. Finally, on “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,” he danced around a question on the 14th Amendment before saying that anything that goes beyond simply enforcing our immigration laws is a red herring.
Earlier this week, Walker blasted President Barack Obama for hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit, even though as governor he had been friendly to China and obligingly wore a Chinese-American flag pin in an appearance on Chinese state TV.
It’s one thing to play to the mood of voters; it’s another to give the appearance of not quite knowing who you are, which is much more deadly than an August dip in the polls.
As for Marco Rubio, for whom expectations have been so high, he has been the least reactive to Trump. His campaign is still betting on the long game. It believes his natural talent will tell over time, but he doesn’t have a natural geographic or ideological base, and his 21st-century economic agenda — although thoughtful — is not likely to stoke enthusiasm among primary voters.
Ted Cruz may be benefiting most from the Trump surge in his strategic positioning. He has a cogent theory of the case, which is that if he is nice to Trump — and the other outsider candidates — he eventually can inherent his supporters. This makes intuitive sense, although Cruz — exceedingly careful in crafting his words and in calculating his interest — is hardly a natural anti-politician.
It is still August, of course. The rules of gravity say Trump will come back down to earth. The media interest that is so intense now could burn out. His lack of seriousness should be a drag over time, and he will still have to weather more debates and presumably — should he stay strong — a barrage of negative ads.
Even if he fades, though, someone else will have to fill the screen. To this point, No one else has been big or vivid enough to do it.
All talk and no action leads to annihilation. The more they speak of Trump in sneering tones of condescension, the stronger he gets.
I kinda look at the flow in a piece before really getting down into the meet. Here, we have reportage of the Trump episodes this week, then Bush and then Walker and then Rubio (why?)......and finally Cruz.....
This tells me the thinking is skewed to start with.
I’m not a Trump voter in the vein as in I want him to win the nomination. For me, he is the focal point of all the anger, resentment, disappointment and disillusionment voters who trusted GOP for years and got stabbed in the back. He resurrected the word “illegal” into our national dialogue. All the other stuff? I don’t care. For me, right here, right now, he is the thumb in the collective eye of the GOP. On target.
Bush? Rubio? why even bother thinking about them. Throw their ballots in the trash and move on. Walker? Nice guy - some good prior work, but struggling. Cruz? My guy - I hope he gets stronger.
“The challengers to Hillary aren’t making much press either. Has that field ‘failed’?”
I would have to say yes but the rats do not have any good people to run. All of their candidates or potential candidates to date are very old and very white. I do not see where they are going to get anybody exciting to watch or listen to. The rats realistically only have a couple of months max to get somebody in if they are going to replace Hillary.
I think it is way too early to proclaim Trump victory as the republicans do have some good people already running and there is still a long time to go before the candidate is settled on. I am enjoying watching Trump a lot. It is very entertaining to hear the wails of the GOP establishment and pundits and the MSM. I intend to enjoy it and see what shakes out.
“His 21st century economic agenda”?
Rubio is a disaster. From his full support for anchor baby-dom to his credit-heavy tax plan. He’s just another Establishment property like Walker or Jeb or Kasich or most of them.
Lowry was a pretty tepid conservative at best.
A lot could happen, but it’s really too late for a GOP candidate to jump in with a hope in Iowa or NH, at least.
Even Biden is looking to skip them if he gets in.
Buckley in his prime, that is.
Yeah, they’d love a field that winnowed down to Bush or Kasich (the open “moderates”) vs. Rubio or Walker as the supposed “conservative”.
And so far Walker and Bush aren’t cutting it.
Yep, Lowry is smoother than the Williamson and Cooke idiots over at NR, but he’s no less vicious and slanted in trying to take down Trump. E.g., Trump “manhandled” Jorge?
Too early for such an analysis. He should try again next March.
Only a person of IMMENSE personality and presence can fill it.
Ergo, Trump.
A++
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.