Posted on 04/17/2015 11:02:08 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
If Jeb Bush doesn’t win any of the first four GOP contests — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — does that eliminate him from the Republican race? Or does he have the staying power to survive those losses?
If Texas Sen. Ted Cruz finishes first in the Iowa caucuses, does that all but eliminate hopefuls such as Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Ben Carson from the race?
If Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul finishes fourth in Iowa (which would be worse than his father’s third-place showing in the caucuses in 2012), can he come back in New Hampshire or Nevada? Are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in a mini-contest of their own, with only one able to survive the February contests?
We all love to “game out” crowded presidential contests, just like we do football games, the stock market and future episodes of “Homeland.” It’s fun, after all, and if we get things right we can smugly point to our great analysis and instincts.
But when I was speaking recently to a veteran Republican consultant (who will be deeply involved in the race) about various possible scenarios, he brought me back to reality with three short words: Don’t do it.
His point was equally simple — there are so many possible scenarios and so many uncertainties that gaming out the race for the GOP nomination is not only a waste of time, but an exercise in futility.
Every question about possible 2016 scenarios generates five other questions.
I have a pretty good idea about Jeb Bush’s future if he finishes fifth in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, or if one candidate wins all four and the former Florida governor doesn’t place in the top two in any of them.
But what if four different candidates win each of the February contests and Bush finishes second or third in each one? How close was Bush’s second place finish? Who came in second if he didn’t?
If Jindal wins Iowa, would that destroy Cruz’s prospects to emerge as the movement conservative standard-bearer or force Huckabee, or Santorum or Carson, out of the race? That depends, of course, on exactly how well each of the hopefuls did.
What if Bush and Rubio face off in Florida? Wouldn’t the loser be eliminated? The answer is “probably,” but even then I’d want to know how the two hopefuls had done to that point and what the margin was in the primary.
The point, of course, is that many things matter — who “wins” a contest, what the margin is, how others fare in each race and how early results effect the makeup of the field, which will have a role in the race. And obviously, expectations play a role in the entire contest.
This certainly doesn’t mean you can’t continue to game out the Republican race. If it’s fun, do it. It doesn’t hurt anyone. But if you play that game, you probably ought to acknowledge the innumerable scenarios and admit you really have no idea what the heck will happen.
I'm starting to think that the internal polls are somewhat different than ones that you and I are allowed to see, else why ask such a "ridiculous" question that goes against all conventional wisdom?
Perry, Rubio, Graham, Huckabee are all cheap labor importers. They are working for The Cheap Labor Express to prevent the GOP from nominating anyone who might stop the cheap labor importation/invasion they like to call immigration.
I think the tipping point for Jeb will be Florida, if he doesn’t come in first there, he drops out.
And there is a GOOD chance of that happening with Rubio in the race.
I haven’t seen an Iowa poll since Cruz’s announcement. Curious.
What if we had a real fair and balanced media that actually reports the news instead of manufacturing the news that tells the truth.
Well, that’s one sector of Obama’s economy that is working and healthy, the media’s manufacturing of Bull Crap.
What if they actually stopped voter fraud.
What if Democrats didn’t receive foreign campaign donations.
What if we had a public that was truly well informed instead of being indoctrinated though institutional government education or by a totally biased media.
Maybe they can’t get a hold of any Iowans to ask them who they support, because they are all out there chasing after Hillary’s van or standing around Chipotles in hopes she will show up.
Quickie Mart Cheap Labor Canadates... No body does it better..
Santorum and Carson are non-starters running on ego only. Jindal and Perry seem to have been pretty good governors, but have shown no ability to connect with voters outside their states. Time for them to give it up.
The only “what if” missing here is something akin to “what if pigs had wings”.
There were 3 polls released in February, none in March, and none in April. Are they not releasing them because they don’t like the results? Seems we get a Florida poll almost daily.
I always thought that the Island of Guam was the tipping point...
Anyyyyyyway...
I hope we are both right, but I am calling NH ( for Jeb , Northeast Liberals RINOs ) and South Carolina will be a weathervain to see how both will do in Florida..
Ted Cruz needs to campaign heavily in Florida months before their primary.
NH will be interesting, Jeb “should” win that, but if he doesn’t its not a do or die like losing Florida would be for him in my opinion.
Texas should be interesting too with THREE candidates from here. But that occurs much later ( or usually does )
Just the Dem-leaning Quinnipiac:
Should be several more due.
I agree that the possible permutations and ‘what ifs’ are far too many to make any reasonable predictions at this time.
HOWEVER, I believe the early entries have the smartest strategy. They will tend to overshadow their rivals with similar supporters and will suck all the money up, leaving late comers wondering where their erstwhile supporters are. Most will have to fold their tents. [possible exceptions are Carson and Fiorina who are running for Vice President in reality as ticket balancers.]
That will reduce the field to perhaps four or five serious candidates with the money to battle it out. I don’t believe in the ‘23 candidates debate battle’ theory.
Is Rothenberg writing from Mars? He seems to have forgotten that Walker is leading in most of the polls.
A good name for a chicken wings fast food carryout.
PIG WINGS CHICKEN WINGS
OUR WINGS DO FLY, THEY FLY OFF THE PLATE DELICIOUS :
PIG WINGS barbeque home cooking chicken wings...
I didn’t mean hypothetical general election polls, I meant republican caucus polls.
Maybe it’s a CHAD to early for polls to be released in Florida...... Just joking...
LOLOLOL.
BTTT
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