Posted on 01/04/2015 1:00:59 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
There was a time when I thought that Mike Huckabee had a chance to win over enough “somewhat conservative” voters that, when added to his pre-existing base among conservative white evangelicals, would give him a good chance to win the 2016 Republican nomination. I don’t think that chance exists anymore (if it ever did). He hasn’t done any of the maneuvering he would need to do in order to expand his base of support. Thirteen months is not a long time and he has shown no inclination to make the moves he would need to make in order to expand his base. If he does run, I don’t see how his ceiling is higher than a strong second.
But hey, a strong second place finish would refresh his brand and strengthen his position as a powerbroker within the right. Not so fast. This isn’t going to be like 2008. Huckabee is probably the most likeable candidate in the field, but he isn’t going to sneak up on anyone this time. He enters with higher name recognition, but also with a target on his back.
No, I don’t mean from the Republican establishment. I mean from the candidates who will look to run as populist alternatives to the Republican establishment candidates. I don’t see any path for a Republican populist that does not include a very large share of the conservative evangelical vote. If Huckabee dominates among conservative evangelicals, there is no room for a Ted Cruz or a Rick Santorum and much less room for Rand Paul to improve on his father’s 2012 performance. In order for these alternative candidates to have a chance, they would have to break apart Huckabee as a viable candidate (Rand Paul has already started). If they can’t do that, they don’t have anything. Those are the incentives.
Huckabee can probably gain stature if he ends up the last man standing against the Republican establishment. But to get that far, he will have to survive being gang-tackled by the other anti-establishment candidates.
On another thread you said you voted for the Huckster before and will
vote for him again. So regardless of what Cruz does or does not do, you
will vote for the Huckster regardless.
Wonder how much Huck gets paid by the GOPe to do this every four years?
I’d love to see him run, just to split the Establishment vote.
Not if Jebbie, Etch A Sketch, Huckafeller, Fatso, and other libs are all running. Let’s do to them what Romney did to us.
And it won’t be the Huckster
Cruz will beat Huckster in SC.
“Let’s do to them what Romney did to us.”
What was that?
At first glance I thought the headline read: “Mike Huckabee and The Dinosaurs of 2016.”
That I know.
I’m thinking he may have been offered by Jeb or somebody to run interference.
Still being a sucker for the GOP-e, eh?
If you didn't figure it out after the 2012 election, the Mississippi Senate race, and Cromnibus, you'll never understand it.
Sadly, your analysis is right on point.
Sure he is.........all the way to the bank.
The ONLY reason Mike Huckabee would even consider throwing his hat in the ring, is so that he can draw votes away from Ted Cruz, and help elect a RINO.
My bet is that Team Jeb has put him up to this.
I was talking about the candidates, not the people. By having 5 or 6 Huckabees, even if they only draw away 3 or 4% of the vote each, they will be enough of a distraction that a real conservative candidate like Cruz, will not get enough support to win.
Remember Gingrich standing at the podium week after week saying, “Once again, Senator Santorum and I split almost two-thirds of the vote”? They would get 65 percent between them, and Romney would win week after week with 35 percent.
Let’s get multiple RINO candidates into the field, and we can split their vote so they can’t win.
Waaaaahhhhhhhh!!!
Sorry, but you have it backwards. If Huck runs, he'll split the conservative vote, which will help to elevate an establishment candidate.
And it begins again...the intentional insertion of a ‘conservative’ GOP establishment type to break about the large conservative vote. And they are right. There are a number of white, southern evangelicals who like Huckabee.
And it begins again...the intentional insertion of a ‘conservative’ GOP establishment type to break about the large conservative vote. And they are right. There are a number of white, southern evangelicals who like Huckabee.
What we really need to do is get rid of candidates altogether and vote only on electors in each congressional district + 2 state wide candidates. At the convention, the electors choose the presidential candidate. It would be a very republican thing to do.
So how you figure that "so called pure conservatives" will be responsible for that? You want them to all line up behind a 'candidate who can win', like Jeb?
More to my point, your singling out "so called pure conservatives' sounds like a typical ad hominem attack against those of us who intend to support the strongest conservative in the primary.
I was talking the candidates, not the voters. There are a lot of conservative candidates who are more, “so-called” than sincere. They come out of the woodwork during every election cycle to run interference. Once their mission is accomplished and the GOPe candidate is nominated, they disappear for another four years.
If you don’t see the problem with that, you might be part of the problem.
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