Posted on 10/10/2012 9:53:22 AM PDT by NY4Romney
So everyone, I'm new here. Hated Obama in 2008 but wasn't crazy about McCain and knew he would lose anyway. This year I was supporting Romney more as an Anti-Obama vote until the debate - which has fired me up and actually made me as much pro-Romney as Anti-Obama (which I suspect is the case around the country). I'm also a huge statistics wonk, and I watch polls, trends, demographics, etc. Until the debate, I figured the election would be close and Obama would squeak out a win. Right now, though, I think that Obama will probably lose and here's my analysis as to why:
1. Starting with 2008, due to redistricting, if Obama won the same states it would be Obama 359 to Romney 179.
2. Give back Nebraska's district, as well as Indiana. Romney: 191
3. NC and FL are no longer that competitive, Romney will win them: Romney 235
4. Obama will likely prevail in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (though maybe not, in which case Romney's path becomes even easier. Romney: 235
5. This leaves NH, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. I think Obama will likely take Iowa, NH, and Nevada (though again, recent polls show that possibly changing), but I think Romney will take Virginia and Colorado. Romney: 257, Obama 263.
6. This leaves one state, Ohio. Once again, I think the election will hinge on this state - Romney is unlikely to win PA, Wisconsin, or Michigan if he can't win Ohio, so I doubt if he loses it he can make up votes elsewhere. Looking at Ohio, it's almost like a miniature version of America, which is why it usually predicts the winner. The northeastern part is similar to the NE USA, the southern part is similar to Appalachia + The South, and the western part is similar to the Midwest. The demographics are similar to the US as a whole as well. Looking at 2008, Obama did worse (and McCain better) in Ohio than in the country as a whole, it was 2.6% closer than the election. As such, in order to win Ohio Obama would have to win the popular vote by more than 2.6%, which national polls have shown to not be the case - even if Obama wins the popular vote (unlikely) it would likely be a squeaker. Based on this, plus the increase in Republican early voting and Obama's dislike from coal country of southern ohio, I really think Romney will win Ohio and the election with AT LEAST 275 electoral votes, though more if the momentum continues.
this bottom lines it nicely. It has always been about Ohio. Same as in 2004, and when it went D in 06, it was clear that no Republican could win it in 2008. obama happened to need it less, b/c he cut into GOP terrain. But with the “normal” GOP map back where it belongs....it’s all about Ohio again.
Of course, if the national trend continues and pulls Romney up, then Romney will likely do pretty much what obama did in 2008, ie, he will pick up those normally D states such as PA. MI, NV and so on.
in almost every specific group, except Blacks, Obama is down at least 10% from 2008.
some groups, like Catholics and Jews,
are down closer to 20%.
...and, many who would vote for him...
won’t even bother going to the polls.
-
it was already a landslide against Obama.
post-debate, is simply bigger.
-
the ONLY concern i have, is the 92% drop in military votes.
it is mind-numbing, that Boehner and the GOP,
are doing nothing about the blatant fraud and law-breaking.
Hi Newbie!
I live in PA and I think the state is a toss-up. Suburbs and rural areas will go with Romney, but the larger urban areas may not. Democratically controlled and still heavily union. Very hard to vote in a Republican.
I live close to Pittsburgh which has a large senior population. All the Dems have to do is say Romney will take away SS and Medicare, and the older folks will flock to Obama. What may possibly change this is that my generation, the baby boomers, are now seniors. I’d like to think we know better than the still older generations.
Oh, and don’t forget all those free Obamaphones. You know there will be quite a few who will vote for Obama just because he gives them all that “free stuff.”
Pretty much what I am thinking.
I do think Romney will win a state like NH, Iowa or Wisc much like Obama surprised and won North Carolina...razor thin. I have a feeling Iowa or Wisc might be ready to flip GOP for a cycle at least. PA is alway a tease.
I’m agreed on state picks, that’s the breakdown.
“As such, in order to win Ohio Obama would have to win the popular vote by more than 2.6%”
This would suggest that if Obama wins the popular vote by 1.6% he would lose Ohio. I know you’re not drawing a hard line on that. I just think that the fundamental analysis of close states like Ohio does not come down to a comparison to 2008.
4 terrible years and the recent debate have changed the structural nature of people’s choice when it comes to the 10% or so that are actually making a choice.
Obama is an entirely different brand now. In Bush’s case in election 2 ... he was still the Bush everyone knew ... it was just a case of whether he was more popular or less popular after 4 years.
I think people are now making up their minds about whether Obama is the SAME man as the man (or illusion) selected in 2008. So I think this is more of a binary choice for the uncommitted. They are not saying ‘do I like him more or less now’ ... they are saying ‘fraud?’.
That was the primary thing Mitt exposed. Then, in addition, Mitt was impressive, took care of a half billion in negative trash adds, and offered himself as a more than acceptable alternative to ‘fraud.’
So I think the choice for the as-yet-uncommitted, individually and as a group, is not an apples to apples, continuum style comparison to 2008. It’s “OK, who is this guy, and is he actually the same man I projected him to be in 2008, or is he the meek, semi intelligent petulant tongue tied arrogant teen ager I now see before me?”
That said - on state breakdowns I’m dead on with ya.
A sound assessment at this point.
I vote in Pennsylvania so I’d really like to see Romney win here.
It’s possible, certainly more so than it was in 2008.
If it happens it could set off a wave election rolling West making the Romney victory nationwide a rout.
I’ve said this for a logn time, and I’ll say it again..
Obama will not win any state he got less than 55% of the popular vote in in 2008, with the exception of MN. And he will win states that he did get 55% of the vote in 2008, WI for example.
Obama is, was and ever will be DOA in the south, the idea that he is going to win any southern state was always a laughable proposition. So, NC,V and FL are off the table for him... and always were.
Obama too is DOA in the rust belt... IN, IA, OH, WI are GONE, he has and neve rhad any shot at winning any of them.
OHIO is only considered a “battleground” state because Obama knows he can’t win without it, even if he is down 20 in the polls there he will keep fighting for it.
The realy battleground states are MI & PA, and so far Romney has pretty much conceded the field in PA, but is fighting from what I can tell in MI. Obama may hold PA but if he does, its just because Romney didn’t fight for it, and Obama will only hold it by a few points.
MI Obama may hold, but if he does would only be a slim margin, I think post debate, Romney will easily win MI too.
Why is this? Simple... forget all the nonsense... forget the bogus polls, here is the simple reason why...
BLUE DOG DEMOCRATS. Blue Dog Democrats are NOT ideological liberals, they are just god fearing, blue collar workers who go to work and church and believe in a fair shake. They are tied to the Dem party over union and history than over radical leftist politics... and this administration has effectively pissed in their faces for 4 years and told them its rain.... And its coming home to roost.
Blue Dogs represent about 60% of the overall Democratic party, and roughly 20% of them are openly stating, they will vote for Romney, this was true before the debate, and I am sure that number is even higher now.
that 20% openly admitting they won’t vote for Obama, represents about 3.5-4% of the total overall vote or about 10% of the overall democratic BASE!!!
Obama cannot make up losing 10% of his base, but that’s exactly where he has always been. Last election he won the independents, and held the base, this time his base is gone, and he’s losing indies by a large margin.
Obama is DOA in the rust belt because that’s where the blue dogs live. They are not NY or LA or San Fran leftists.. they don’t agree with what Obama has been doing, they are the ones taking on the chin with this economy and they don’t believe government should be making churches pay for abortions or contraception etc etc etc.....
And guess what? THE RUST BELT and THE SOUTH are their home! Obama has ZERO chance of winning this election.
Now what I am curious about is this shift that is coming this cycle among the Blue Dogs, particularly in the rust belt, is.. is this just a cyclical shift due to the wretchedly bad president, or is this a long overdue shift, much as the south experienced away from the democratic party??? If its the prior, dems will be back next cycle or two... if however it is part of a longer, and long overdue re-alignment, exacerbated by such a horrible president... Then there will not be another Democrat in the White House for a very long time.
You give a solid prediction and pretty much just as I see it. If Romney has a strong finish he could pick up IA, NH, NV too. If Obama has a strong finish he could take OH and possibly others for a win. A close race.
New Ras poll on PA has Romney within 5 in a D+5 poll.
Do you know the particulars and internals in MI for Ras?
Based on this, it won't be close.
Comment on getting NE’s split vote back got me thinking.
In the event it does get down to a couple of electoral votes, is there any congressional district in Maine that could be carried by Romney? Or are all the rugged, individual Nor-Easterners drinking double lattes now?
So, you are new here.
So, we couldn't tell.
So, you begin your first post with so.
So, everything after that is suspect.
Can I ax you a question, ya know what I mean, when in the hell did "so" become the beginning of every NY comment?
SO?
I am not sure if this is true anymore.
If it is, then you are correct, this will be a blowout.
But I fear there are no more Blue Dogs. Or if there are, they swallowed the Obama Kool Aid that Romney = Bush.
I think Romney will take Iowa and New Hampshire. Nevada seems unlikely.
I have heard anecdotes along these lines but it would be great to see real data if it is available.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.