I’m agreed on state picks, that’s the breakdown.
“As such, in order to win Ohio Obama would have to win the popular vote by more than 2.6%”
This would suggest that if Obama wins the popular vote by 1.6% he would lose Ohio. I know you’re not drawing a hard line on that. I just think that the fundamental analysis of close states like Ohio does not come down to a comparison to 2008.
4 terrible years and the recent debate have changed the structural nature of people’s choice when it comes to the 10% or so that are actually making a choice.
Obama is an entirely different brand now. In Bush’s case in election 2 ... he was still the Bush everyone knew ... it was just a case of whether he was more popular or less popular after 4 years.
I think people are now making up their minds about whether Obama is the SAME man as the man (or illusion) selected in 2008. So I think this is more of a binary choice for the uncommitted. They are not saying ‘do I like him more or less now’ ... they are saying ‘fraud?’.
That was the primary thing Mitt exposed. Then, in addition, Mitt was impressive, took care of a half billion in negative trash adds, and offered himself as a more than acceptable alternative to ‘fraud.’
So I think the choice for the as-yet-uncommitted, individually and as a group, is not an apples to apples, continuum style comparison to 2008. It’s “OK, who is this guy, and is he actually the same man I projected him to be in 2008, or is he the meek, semi intelligent petulant tongue tied arrogant teen ager I now see before me?”
That said - on state breakdowns I’m dead on with ya.
I do believe it is, theoretically, possible for Obama to win the popular vote (even if just by 1% or less) and lose the electoral votes. Unlikely, but possible - I don’t think it’s just like 2008, but I do think Obama would have to get at least 2% or so lead in the national vote to win Ohio, and I don’t see that happening.
ALSO, some food for thought:
Today, Romney’s RCP average of polls is Romney +0.5, 47.8 to 47.3 for Obama.
4 years ago on this exact date, it was OBAMA +7.6, 49.4 compared to only 42.8 for McCain. An 8 point swing, and a lead he never lost, staying between 7 and 8 points above McCain until election day. I don’t see that kind of switch happening now, at most they may be tied by election day, but I suspect Romney will be up in the polls (in 2008, the final RCP avg was Obama: 52 to McCain 44, so the Obamabots that think Obama will somehow pull this out while he’s being smashed in the polls just isn’t going to work out too well).