Posted on 09/07/2012 9:00:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The American Research Group (ARG) poll of the race between Mitt Romney and President Obama released today shows a 49 percent to 46 percent lead for the former governor of Massachusetts. The poll of 1200 likely voters, surveyed between September 4-6, has a margin of error of 3 percent. Over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, the survey sample included 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 28 percent independent voters.
The sampling of the ARG poll differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.
The ARG survey has Democrats favoring Obama by a 85 percent to 11 percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 92 percent to five percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 49 percent to 44 percent edge.
If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 53 percent to 43 percent margin over President Obama. That would be a lead of 10 percent, larger than any for Romney reported by any recent national poll...
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
DNC Fail was so bad I expect a Romney bounce. lol
ping
The economy sucks, and people know it. The big Zero doesn't have a whole lot of support outside his hardcore leftist base.
That’s what Laura Ingraham said. Bambi’s speech gave a bounce...to R and R!
lol.
In the last 2 months, Rasmussen polling shows about an increase of 2.5% for Rs and about 0.5% decrease for Dems along with 1% loss for Independents.
It was an all-clown circus with a freak show in the center ring. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.
Actually received my first phone call tonight from the Romney campaign asking for a contribution of 100 dollars. I told the lady on the phone that since Im unemployed I could not afford to give that kind of money but that my vote is more precious than any amount of money, she agreed :-) The fact that they are calling supporters in CA of all places is a very good sign. Dont believe the Gallop polls or other leftist polls Romney is doing very well
Heh heh.
I was soooooooo sick and fed up with every speech being hailed as the turning point in which Obama was going to beat Romney for good.
Someone on FNC tonight actually admitted that the thrust of the convention was to solidify the base. Now wait a minute...less than four years after the Immaculation they are worried about losing their base?? That says they don’t have a chance of attracting the center and undecideds. And after this past week, the one the base wants to support most is non-candidate Bill Clinton.
Obama is only leading by 7% in NEW JERSEY!!
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1793
It felt like Bush I's speech for reelection (Or Carter's).
I actually wondered if slacker Obama didn’t just say screw it, I’m not really up for this, I want to move to my new mansion in Hawaii in January - so I’ll just give my 2008 speech and let it go at that.
This guy was right and his spread sheet matched mine. This is from a post earlier today in another thread on the ARG poll:
Well this survey corresponds pretty with the economic projection from the Univ of Colorado.
They are projecting a D+4 turnout, less than the +7 in 2008. However in 2010 the turnout was even between the rs and Ds. It that turnout model holds with the splits in this poll, assuming the 30% ind turnout from 2010, the race is
Romney 50.75%
Obama 44.70%
In this scenario ~4.5% undecided, if we assume 1.5% third party (consistent with other elections, that leaves 3% going to Romney & Obama assume a 2-1 split to the challenger (little lower than historical results), we end up at 53-46% Romney.
This tracks very closely to the results from the economic model.
If we plug in the +4 R-D split favoring Rs from Rasmussen the numbers become a huge blowout 54.8-43.9, seems almost too good to be true OTOH there are 23M unemployed and 89M of working age who dont have a job.
If NJ could be in play, this could be a landslide
Obama is only leading by 7% in NEW JERSEY!!
Good pickup, Quinnipiac usually leans left also. Hard to see Romney winning although i have seen a lot of Obama ads (I have directtv for NFL ticket) not sure if they are national buys or local.
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