This guy was right and his spread sheet matched mine. This is from a post earlier today in another thread on the ARG poll:
Well this survey corresponds pretty with the economic projection from the Univ of Colorado.
They are projecting a D+4 turnout, less than the +7 in 2008. However in 2010 the turnout was even between the r’s and D’s. It that turnout model holds with the splits in this poll, assuming the 30% ind turnout from 2010, the race is
Romney 50.75%
Obama 44.70%
In this scenario ~4.5% undecided, if we assume 1.5% third party (consistent with other elections, that leaves 3% going to Romney & Obama assume a 2-1 split to the challenger (little lower than historical results), we end up at 53-46% Romney.
This tracks very closely to the results from the economic model.
If we plug in the +4 R-D split favoring R’s from Rasmussen the numbers become a huge blowout 54.8-43.9, seems almost too good to be true OTOH there are 23M unemployed and 89M of working age who don’t have a job.
Got to leave in there a margin for Democrat voter fraud in case the Democrats want to cheat instead of actually winning on their own merits.