WOO-HOO!!! Everybody's doing the R & R Bounce!!!
Posted on 09/07/2012 9:00:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The American Research Group (ARG) poll of the race between Mitt Romney and President Obama released today shows a 49 percent to 46 percent lead for the former governor of Massachusetts. The poll of 1200 likely voters, surveyed between September 4-6, has a margin of error of 3 percent. Over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, the survey sample included 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 28 percent independent voters.
The sampling of the ARG poll differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.
The ARG survey has Democrats favoring Obama by a 85 percent to 11 percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 92 percent to five percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 49 percent to 44 percent edge.
If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 53 percent to 43 percent margin over President Obama. That would be a lead of 10 percent, larger than any for Romney reported by any recent national poll...
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
Even though I dont expect Romney to win New Jersey, if he does I will bust out laughing so hard, this will be a landslide of historic proportions for sure
Typically you see headlines saying how many millions of people watched the acceptance speech. I didn’t see any of those on Friday. Did I miss something, or is there a reason those numbers aren’t making their way to the surface?
Honey Boo Boo?
Got to leave in there a margin for Democrat voter fraud in case the Democrats want to cheat instead of actually winning on their own merits.
Yep.
Remember how in 2008 Obama was saying he was going to win all 50 states? The campaign was making efforts even in Alaska.
And now they’re consistently saying the race is going to be very, very tight and come down the wire.
In 2008 we clung to the hopes of a rumored poll showing Obama up by only 3 in MI. Now there are polls everywhere showing just that result and people (I’m looking at you, Nate Silver) are still acting like Obama is going to win by 300000%.
You can extrapolate from there...
overnight ratings, before adjustments
DNC was only on NBC at 9PM EST (the others waited till 10pm) and it came in second behind Big Brother on CBS. lol
good post, thanks
Yes, except it’s double counting to count how much Democrats are oversampled PLUS how much Republicans are undersampled. That’s really a four point swing.
There was talk earlier of Oregon and Maine maybe becoming toss-ups.
lol.
That sounds like a joke. The Soviet Socialist Republic of Oregon would never allow it, those mail ballots will have to be sifted.
Thanks and I am not suprised by this result. My parents saw 2016 today and called me up telling what a packed house they had. People know what must be done to this Manchurian Candidate.
Wow. Big Brother was a bigger draw than Big Sis / NannyState.
Looks like approximately 22 million?
Just a little more than the crowd that watched Paul Ryan, which was just over half the number who had watched Sarah Palin?
I’ll let someone else do the math, lol
I don’t see how Romney loses if he’s ahead with independents, assuming no fixing, etc. and of course this prediction would refer to the popular vote, not the electoral college.
Now, 4 pts is margin of error, or nearly, so according to this particular poll he could still lose.
But I don’t think anyone can win by just winning their base, they have to win the mushy-middlers to gain victory.
Last days of a failed regime.
“His speech was lack of heart that it’s almost as if Obama has given up...”
Yes, that’s pretty much what it sounded like when we heard the end of it.
And that’s pretty much how Jim Geraghty put it over at NRO: Obama has said all he has to say, he’s just out of ideas.
The guy really has a lot of nerve though, 4 years ago he was going to still the oceans, heal the sick and employ the idle, now he says: gee being president is hard....I need more time.
As the Rolling Stones sang: you’re obsolete my baby.....baby, baby, oh baby you’re out of time!
As a conservative northern Californian, I hope you’re right!! And, I love your name. ;)
That DNC Klan meeting in Charlotte was hard to ignore.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.