Mitt Romney 10 percent lead in unskewed data from ARG poll

The Examiner ^ | September 7, 2012 | Dean Chambers

[2ndDivisionVet]

The American Research Group (ARG) poll of the race between Mitt Romney and President Obama released today shows a 49 percent to 46 percent lead for the former governor of Massachusetts. The poll of 1200 likely voters, surveyed between September 4-6, has a margin of error of 3 percent. Over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, the survey sample included 38 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 28 percent independent voters.

The sampling of the ARG poll differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.

The ARG survey has Democrats favoring Obama by a 85 percent to 11 percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 92 percent to five percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 49 percent to 44 percent edge.

If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 53 percent to 43 percent margin over President Obama. That would be a lead of 10 percent, larger than any for Romney reported by any recent national poll...

[2ndDivisionVet]

Wow. You won't hear that on Hardball with Chris Matthews.

[GeronL]

DNC Fail was so bad I expect a Romney bounce. lol

[Perdogg]

ping

[Marathoner]

Honestly, this doesn't surprise me.

The economy sucks, and people know it. The big Zero doesn't have a whole lot of support outside his hardcore leftist base.

[Mountain Mary]

That’s what Laura Ingraham said. Bambi’s speech gave a bounce...to R and R!

[GeronL]

lol.

[Red Steel]

the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents.

In the last 2 months, Rasmussen polling shows about an increase of 2.5% for Rs and about 0.5% decrease for Dems along with 1% loss for Independents.

[2ndDivisionVet]

It was an all-clown circus with a freak show in the center ring. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.

[Sarah Barracuda]

Actually received my first phone call tonight from the Romney campaign asking for a contribution of 100 dollars. I told the lady on the phone that since Im unemployed I could not afford to give that kind of money but that my vote is more precious than any amount of money, she agreed :-) The fact that they are calling supporters in CA of all places is a very good sign. Dont believe the Gallop polls or other leftist polls Romney is doing very well

[Steely Tom]

Obama is doing fine; his people will tell you his polling results are right on the targets called for by his campaign strategists for this point in the election cycle. His experts are managing his popularity so he doesn't peak too soon.

Heh heh.

[Cruising For Freedom]

I was soooooooo sick and fed up with every speech being hailed as the turning point in which Obama was going to beat Romney for good.

[bigbob]

Someone on FNC tonight actually admitted that the thrust of the convention was to solidify the base. Now wait a minute...less than four years after the Immaculation they are worried about losing their base?? That says they don’t have a chance of attracting the center and undecideds. And after this past week, the one the base wants to support most is non-candidate Bill Clinton.

[American Constitutionalist]

His speech was lack of heart that it's almost as if Obama has given up and given the election to Romney.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Obama is only leading by 7% in NEW JERSEY!!
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1793

[Ingtar]

His speech was lack of heart that it's almost as if Obama has given up and given the election to Romney.

It felt like Bush I's speech for reelection (Or Carter's).

[bigbob]

I actually wondered if slacker Obama didn’t just say screw it, I’m not really up for this, I want to move to my new mansion in Hawaii in January - so I’ll just give my 2008 speech and let it go at that.

[Leto]

This guy was right and his spread sheet matched mine. This is from a post earlier today in another thread on the ARG poll:

Well this survey corresponds pretty with the economic projection from the Univ of Colorado.

They are projecting a D+4 turnout, less than the +7 in 2008. However in 2010 the turnout was even between the r’s and D’s. It that turnout model holds with the splits in this poll, assuming the 30% ind turnout from 2010, the race is

Romney 50.75%

Obama 44.70%
In this scenario ~4.5% undecided, if we assume 1.5% third party (consistent with other elections, that leaves 3% going to Romney & Obama assume a 2-1 split to the challenger (little lower than historical results), we end up at 53-46% Romney.

This tracks very closely to the results from the economic model.

If we plug in the +4 R-D split favoring R’s from Rasmussen the numbers become a huge blowout 54.8-43.9, seems almost too good to be true OTOH there are 23M unemployed and 89M of working age who don’t have a job.

[American Constitutionalist]

Actually ? Rush Limbaugh was comparing Obama's speech to Jimma Carter's speech in 1980.

Rush is right, a lot of words sounded a lot like the words Jimma used in his 1980 DNC speech.
How to lose a election for Dummies 101... copy what Jimma did.

[GeronL]

If NJ could be in play, this could be a landslide

[Leto]

Obama is only leading by 7% in NEW JERSEY!!

Good pickup, Quinnipiac usually leans left also. Hard to see Romney winning although i have seen a lot of Obama ads (I have directtv for NFL ticket) not sure if they are national buys or local.