Posted on 08/06/2012 5:10:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.
Why didn’t Morris name the polling organization? I might feel better if he did.
Real polling organizations, as opposed to outfits producing grist for the media mill, are very careful about how their data is used. Politicians and businesses pay a real premium to a trusted polling organization and these organizations do not let their data be used for free.
The polls that are published in newspapers and on TV are real junk, designed to drive up readership and viewer stats, nothing more.
Obama has the real polls and he knows that he has a problem.
An actual conservative candidate for ‘12 President would do much better, this November. Why be forced to choose between two leftist candidates, as the final MAJOR CHOICES for ‘12 President, when what is really needed the most, for the long-term, is a “small government conservative” candidate for ‘12 POTUS? How is the U.S. not “finished” with, either, Barack Obama, or Mitt Romney as president?
He’s most likely seeing internal polls that the public almost never has access to.
If Dick Morris said the sun would rise tomorrow, I would invest in candles.
Thanks for that information. I feel better now.
“It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias.”
I’m going with the latter...deliberate media propaganda and disinformation designed to manipulate single mom’s, illegal aliens, criminals, and minorities.
I agree. Nothing should be assumed about anything.
The Democrats are going to pull out every dirty trick they know and they could still pull it off.
Never before in the history of our nation have we had 8% unemployment for over forty months. We have it now.
It’s Obama’s economy.
Remember this!
Because Gov. Romney won the Republican nomination and Mr. Obama the Democratic. Here in Realityville, we have two choices. As you know, I wanted Governor Palin or Speaker Gingrich. That didn’t materialize. Anyone who tells me that Mitt is worse than Barack is blowing smoke up my posterior and unlike the Chick-fil-A protestors, I don’t enjoy that.
If Dick Morris said the sun would rise tomorrow, I would invest in candles.
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Your correct, he is always wrong. However, he is just repeating information from a polling firm, so they may have a better track record than he does.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado.
I’d be absolutely stunned if Obama repeated in Indiana and North Carolina.
That said, Morris has a long history of well, being wrong. I’m heartened by the numbers, but I’m not taking one single thing for granted until I see Obama giving his concession speech on Election Night.
Consider what you wrote.......... think on it. Consider how wrong it is.
There is no conservative candidate and the conservatives all together did not have the votes to beat Romney. There is no conservative with the statue and name recognition and fund raising ability on the scene.
Rush likes to say we are a conservative country but this year the conservatives chose to beat themselves to death while relying on false hopes for the miracle of Sarah that did not materialize.
It’s basic math that is often not used on these polls. You need to know from likely voters.
1. How people identify themselves: D/R/I and in what proportion for the last election in that state.
2. Get the current poll results and current D/R/I identification.
3. Adjust for proportion from last election.
The bad polling organizations just do 2.
Morris didn’t do the polling, so unless he’s lying or the pollster is deceiving him...
Great to see New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Nevada on that list. Nevada and New Hampshire are listed as “leans Democrat” by Rasmussen, while Wisconsin is a toss-up.
How Mitt Romney Mentally Castrated The Obama Campaign
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/07/31/white-house-insider-how-mitt-romney-mentally-castrated-the-obama-campaign/
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