Posted on 06/18/2012 2:39:03 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Something strange is going on in the election campaign.
Former president Bill Clinton seems to look for every opportunity to undermine the sitting president of his own party. His former political aides publish a memorandum saying the White House message strategy is failing. The morning reports have the press corps dismissing President Obama's supposedly major speech in Ohio Thursday as a windy nothing-burger.
Everyone agrees that the president has had one bad day after another, beginning more or less with Gov. Scott Walker's victory in the Wisconsin recall election, the first governor in American history to survive a recall effort. Did that Democratic recall loss throw the White House off its game? Did it prompt the Clinton people to sound Paul Revere-like alarms to the soldiers within their party's ranks that the GOP army was coming and everyone had better get out of bed and get cracking?
Here is what is strange. All this bad news comes as the Real Clear Politics average of all polls shows the president still ahead of former Gov. Mitt Romney. Usually politicians don't push the panic button when they lead in the polls.
True, the Democrats' margin has shrunk from something like seven points in late February to 1.2 percent today—a spread within the margin of error. But Mr. Obama has remained consistently ahead.
And yet….
The margin of the Walker victory surprised Democratic Party pros. They tried to cover how bad it was by blaming spending unleashed via the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision. But as many have already pointed out, if Citizens United had any impact (the Wisconsin election fell under state rather than federal law after all), it was to favor the Democrats. Walker's funds came from individuals, and individuals have long had no legal restrictions on what they could give in independent expenditures. His opponent, Tom Barrett, relied heavily on union money, which Citizens United did in fact legally unleash.
So you had to give the Democrats credit in those early hours after the polls closed for finger pointing. They were ready to say anything so as not to acknowledge that, despite a campaign of unprecedented volume and ferocity, the voters had rejected them and their positions. But for getting their message out, just those days last year of closing down the entire state government with demonstrations in the capitol building were worth ten of millions dollars in advertising. Adding everything up, they went into the election with the greater resources.
But that margin. Polls had shown a much tighter race.
All of a sudden, the ghost of elections past is haunting the president and his party. In 1980, in 1994, in 2004—in other words, in big Republican years over the past three-plus decades—the GOP has polled much weaker than its final vote.
Why? Late deciders may be part of the answer, but only part.
Something more is almost surely going on. Here's my guess as to what.
Particularly in big years when the party is pulling in or turning out occasional rather than reliable party voters, part of the GOP vote is invisible to pollsters. In Wisconsin—maybe everywhere—there may be reluctance among union members to acknowledge that they will cast their ballot for candidates and the party their leadership so virulently opposes.
Then, too, people tend to see pollsters as extensions of the media. Many conservatives distrust the media, seeing it (for good reason) as adversarial to all they support. So they may not want to be candid with questioners.
Whatever the reason, the big miss by pollsters in Wisconsin raises the question: Could there be a similarly invisible Romney vote in play this year? Almost alone among major pollsters, Scott Rasmussen is showing Romney ahead now. I have heard some pollsters suggest that his 100 percent automated questioning might skew the results away from the Democrats, whose minority supporters may not want to respond to machine calls.
But maybe it goes the other way. Maybe reticent Republican voters are more confident of their anonymity and the objectivity of questions coming from a machine voice and entered responses
But whatever the technical factors at play, the invisible-to-pollsters Walker support in Wisconsin suggests that President Obama is facing the same phenomenon nationally.
And why not?
Heart-stopping increases in government spending, dangerous-to-the-national-welfare run ups in deficits and national debt, plummeting labor force participation rates (thanks to almost invisible jobs growth), trampling rule of law including transparent attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court in the Obamacare case, fumbling foreign policy justified as "lead from behind" which appears to really mean "don't lead at all," and, oh, yes, a 40 percent drop in family net worth: Looked at objectively, shouldn't this record spell disaster at the polls for the party in power?
The real question is not "Why are Democrats and their friends hitting the panic button now?" It is "Why has it taken them so long?"
Can you clarify the math behind your reply?
Why don’t you go hide under your blankie until the election is over so we don’t have to constantly read your raving lunatic stupidity.
“Can you clarify the math behind your reply?”
4 yrs Obama = leftist agenda
4 yrs Romney = leftist agenda
4 more yrs Romney = leftist agenda
TOTAL
If Obama can’t get reelected with a leftist agenda, isn’t it an unsupportable assumption that Romney could?
>since Obama will be impeached
A Democratic senate will impeach Obama? Right.
Even if you mean after the election assuming the GOP takes the senate, that is truly delusional. It won’t happen.
I agree with you. I was just wondering if there was any value to pursuing the issue after he left office. I could be way off but I could almost see him in an in your face moment admit he was ineligible after he left office and feels he is untouchable on the issue.
Love to see your whine after Mitt wins. Bet you won’t be around to admit you were wrong.
“If Obama can’t get reelected with a leftist agenda, isn’t it an unsupportable assumption that Romney could?”
You’re voting for him regardless of his liberal record aren’t you? Apparently people are so full of fear that they’ll flush their conservative principals down the toilet in favor of “not as bad as (insert democrat here)”
Is this your first time voting? With the exception of Reagan, every vote I’ve cast for president in the last 40 years has been a compromise for the lesser of two evils. Do you think I looked forward to voting for Dole, Ford or McCain?
My first principles concern the survival of the republic. That’s at stake this time.
Most people just keep their mouths shut, they may even nod and seem to agree with you - I've seen that happen.
Constant ranting and calling others ‘evil’ because they don't agree with you just makes them more determined.
Unless their choice suddenly commits a new unsavory action, their mindset won't change.
So, Yes, a large number of the people keep their choice to themselves, to avoid the kind of conflict in real life that we see going on here.
I’ve been voting as long as I COULD vote. I pulled the trigger for Dole, then for Bush, then Bush again, then McCain.
NOW I’M DONE WITH THAT CRAP.
It’s time for the GOP to get a little “tough love” from their base. If we are truly worried about the state of this country, we need to first fix our party. Until then we will choose between faster decline and slower decline
“Do you think I looked forward to voting for Dole, Ford or McCain?”
where did that get you?
I live in Realville. The lesser of two evils is still the better choice. Should I wake up tomorrow as ruler of the universe I will change things for both of us but until that happens, I get to make the best choice of what’s in front of me.
A vote for a third party or a no-show is support for the Kenyan; no thanks.
Romney will lose. Voters will pick the socialist they know. There is no way Romney can explain his record.
“I live in Realville. The lesser of two evils is still the better choice. Should I wake up tomorrow as ruler of the universe I will change things for both of us but until that happens, I get to make the best choice of what’s in front of me.
A vote for a third party or a no-show is support for the Kenyan; no thanks.”
Well then that’s your opinion. My opinion is that the true ruler of the universe (GOD ALMIGHTY) has placed Obama into power for His own purposes. The same will be applicable to the next POTUS. If Obama wins it will be because God wanted him to. If Obama destroys the country it will be because God wanted it to be destroyed.
It’s because of this that I can feel free to vote for whomever I please. In this case I’m voting for the Constitution Party candidate because their views are closest to my own.
Good, we’ll defeat the Kenyan without you.
Romney not only will win, he’ll win bigger than Bush did in 04. Mark it down.
“Good, we’ll defeat the Kenyan without you”
Go for it! I sincerely wish you all luck.
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