Posted on 09/26/2011 10:18:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
When Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann finished dead last in the Florida straw poll Saturday, more than one onlooker wondered how many nails were left to seal her coffin. The poll, in a state that elected a tea party governor in 2010, seemed to be a devastating blow to the popular conservative.
Instead of warming to Bachmann, Sunshine State straw poll delegates split their vote for an alternative to Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, between Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businessman Herman Cain.
The big question now is how much air is left in Bachmann’s sails. Did she peak at the Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll in Iowa? Opinions are split, but most experts seem to agree that while she’s clearly in trouble, it’s too early to start the Bachmann campaign death clock.
“Michele Bachmann’s last-place finish was obviously not ideal,” media consultant Vincent Harris told The Daily Caller. “Florida is a critical state and one in which every candidate will need to actively participate.”
“But just as people wrote off Herman Cain after Bachmann’s Iowa straw poll victory, it’s far too soon to write her political obituary,” Harris added.
Opinion polls are beginning to suggest otherwise. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Monday had Bachmann at only four percent, behind former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Cain, Texas congressman Ron Paul, Perry, Romney and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. (RELATED: Romney catching up to Perry after Florida debate)
Perry’s late entry into the race, combined with negative press about his low fundraising and unflattering comments about his HPV controversy, haven’t boosted Bachmann’s numbers. And Perry and Cain may be taking over the anti-establishment vacuum Bachmann originally filled.
If there’s any bright side for the congresswoman, though, it’s that expectations for her were low in Florida.
That, along with the first rule of politics — that what goes up must come down — suggests it’s not yet over for Bachmann.
Florida-based consultant Tim Baker, for one, hasn’t written her off.
“I don’t know if it’s a matter of Floridians not being attracted to her as much as not knowing much about her,” he told TheDC. “She made clear that her strategy is Iowa-focused and also made a big show of not ‘contesting’ the [Florida straw] poll.”
“I think the results from this weekend made clear that you have to invest your time in Florida and offer specific solutions to the problems we are facing,” said Baker.
One Florida GOP insider, however, indicated to TheDC that there’s nowhere for Bachmann’s candidacy to go after Florida. With Paul to the right of her and Perry to the more mainstream conservative side, Bachmann is simply stuck with a disintegrating grassroots base.
“Until she takes care of Rick Perry or something else takes care of him, I don’t see her being a viable candidate,” said the Florida insider. “She won the [Iowa] straw poll, then two hours later Rick Perry got in and she was done.”
Some political gurus, as well as the Bachmann campaign itself, point to an Iowa-only strategy to downplay results in other early-primary states.
“We made the decision weeks ago to not to participate in the Florida P5 [Presidency 5] poll,” said Bachmann press secretary Alice Stewart. “We came into the race late and had to make a decision about what poll to participate in and we chose Iowa. We competed in Iowa with less time and resources and time than others, and we won.”
“Not only that, the Iowa straw poll was open to all Iowans with a valid ID, as opposed to a select group of delegates as in the P5 poll,” Stewart added. “Our plan is to continue doing retail politics — which is something Michele does better than any other candidate in this race.”
Harris agreed, telling TheDC that the Minnesota congresswoman “shares a similar appeal as Governor Huckabee in her appeal of evangelical Christians, and if she can tap into that audience [she] will be very successful both in Iowa and South Carolina. Bottom line is anything can happen.”
The Florida GOP insider, however, doesn’t buy it. “It’s hard to run a grassroots campaign with no grassroots. If she’s putting it all in Iowa we’ll see, but unless something starts changing I just don’t see it.”
Her campaign’s stamina will be put to the test later this week with the third-quarter financials deadline. So far, Bachmann has been relying heavily on small donors and direct mail, while Wall Street funders and bundlers have yet to sign on. Regardless, when Bachmann’s financials come out, the only thing that will really matter is whether her bottom line is in the black or in the red.
You are right about that. There is no way I can see her turning this thing around.
“We don’t promote House members to the presidency. It’s only happened once, in a freak 4-way election. She has zero executive experience.”
Still, it would’ve helped if she didn’t come across as unhinged.
Michelle shot herself in the foot. It’s not like we weren’t willing to give her a fair hearing.
At best, She is an anti Palin plant of the DNC.
After her getting so emotional and obsessive about Perry and the HPV vaccine, I could no longer visualize her speaking rationally, calmly and professionally to world leaders. (and Bachmann had been my first choice)
I agree with her positions and I believe she is conservative, but she isn’t presidential in my mind. She was standing on good ground attacking the EO but when she went into her telling of that sad, pitiful, woman and child— she lost me.
I also lost respect of how she made a vaccine that can save lives— political. That was WRONG, in my belief. She is right, she is NOT a doctor, she should have kept her mouth shut there.
There are the anti-vaccine folk and that’s fine but I have a great respect for vaccines and on that I won’t change.
Michelle is sounding like she is singing her “swan song”. She was just telling the party not to elect a moderate and go with a strong conservative. She didn’t say that the conservative had to be her.
I wish she hadn’t gone after Perry and help Mitt in that 2nd debate. Maybe she would be doing better.
I just saw her on BOR. She looked and sounded GREAT!
She’s going to hang in there and not leave until her book is released in Nov....
Absolutely right about Bachmann overplaying her hand during the debate. She broke Reagan’s rule about saying bad about a fellow Republican. I lost much confidence about her unfounded accusations against Perry.
BTW: I also lost much of my vigor for Perry during the last debate.
I could vote for Cain and feel comfortable that he would do right by America.
I am going down Saturday to see Cain.
I do not know why but Cain seems to be more solid in his thinking.
I hope she packs up her clown car and goes home to run for re-election. I like her but she jumped the shark on too many issues. Promising $2 gas? Gardisil causing mental retardation? You should keep 100% of your money?
Leaning towards Cain now.
LOL Some split, 37% for Cain and 14% for Perry. Ummm that's not a split and Cain should have been mentioned first since he WON.
If she drops out she should endorse Cain.
2ndDivisionVet: “She has zero executive experience.”
As much as I like her ideology and would like her to play an active role in a future Republican administration, I have to agree. Ideology is vitally important, but it’s not my only requirement. I also want to believe she has the necessary skill set to be the nation’s chief executive. I just don’t see that. Again, I think she’s a great person. I’m just not convinced she’s presidential material. Typically one proves their executive bona fides by actually serving in executive positions prior to running for the most powerful job in the world. She hasn’t done that.
How do you feel about the Federal Reserve Board, and Federal Reserve Currency?
She shouldn’t have kept up with the gardasil attack, but, there have been cases of death and paralysis.
Records Document 3,589 Adverse Reactions Related to Gardasil between May 2009 and September 2010, Including 213 Cases Resulting in Permanent Disability
I am going down Saturday to see Cain.
I do not know why but Cain seems to be more solid in his thinking.
**************
Cain was impressive on Greta tonight, I really like him. I am not quite on board with the 9-9-9.
I had been completely Bachmann, but I had started to doubt her before Perry.
After her spaz-out, I became Perry, Newt, Cain.
Now, I am Newt, Cain, Perry. I don’t trust Newt to stay where he is, I don’t really like 9-9-9 and Perry screwed up.
I don’t think perfection is on the horizon—damn the humanity! :)
Can you explain to me how the lack of executive experience disqualifies House members but not senators? Sometime we will start reverting to the mean.
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