Rasmussen: Obama 46, Perry 39

Two weeks ago, it was Perry 44, Obama 41. Today, this. What happened? Oh … right.

Perry trails Obama by 15 percentage points among women and barely leads among men. Perry trails among voters under 40, runs even among 40-somethings and leads among those 50 and older. It’s worth remembering that most voters over 40 voted against Obama in 2008.

Perry currently attracts just 71% of the Republican vote, while the president wins 85% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either party, the race is a toss-up.

His numbers among Republicans will soar if he’s the nominee, as they would for any other candidate in the field, but I’m not sure what to make of the fact that he leads O among the over-50 crowd. Like Ras says, that’s to be expected given Obama’s track record in 2008, but maybe it’s also anecdotal evidence that Social Security isn’t hurting Perry as badly as we think. Could be his numbers are down simply because his overall performance at the debates has been lackluster, especially given the high expectations that accompanied his “big hoss”/white knight persona when he jumped in. In fact, Rasmussen’s crosstabs reveal that Perry leads Obama 49/38 among voters aged 65 or over. In 2008, McCain won that demographic 53/45. Perry’s outperforming him — for the moment.

Worse than this, perhaps, is that pluralities of both Republicans (37 percent) and independents (40 percent) think Perry’s views on Social Security will hurt his election chances. That’s a potentially deadly liability, especially in a long primary race where electability may become more important the closer we get to the general campaign. If Romney and Perry are roughly even in delegates after two months and umpteen debates, undecideds may try to break the stalemate by looking to the most basic qualification of all — viability against Obama. And unless I’m missing something, there’s no obvious way for Perry to undo this perception that he’s less electable because of his Social Security views. Voters have heard for decades that it’s the “third rail of American politics”; they know Bush was routed when he tried to engage on privatization in 2005. Even if Perry comes up with his own reform plan — which may be in the works, as he’s now talking to Paul Ryan — the mere fact that this became a major issue early on may influence the public’s image of Perry going forward.

The unemployment rate in Texas rose a bit in August to 8.5%, its highest rate since 1987.

That leaves the Lone Star State in the middle of the pack nationally, but it’s jobless rate remains below the national rate of 9.1%. The uptick, reported Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is worth noting since Texas Gov. Rick Perry has based his presidential campaign on his state’s ability to create jobs while much of the country is stuck in the economic doldrums.

Mr. Perry’s campaign blamed President Barack Obama. “Texas is not immune to the effects of the national recession,” Mr. Perry’s spokesman, Mark Miner, said in an email. “And even during this national economic downturn, which the president’s misguided policies have only worsened, Texas remains the nation’s top economy.”

That’s neat spin, but Texas’s economic record is the pillar holding his entire campaign up. If it starts to crack as the race wears on, his chances could collapse. Especially given the other electability concerns. Late poll tonight, just out as I write this: Perry 23, Romney 16, Gingrich 7, Bachmann 7.

Update: Yet another liability: Did Perry support TARP? The AP covered the letter [dated October 1, 2008 and co-signed by the RGA and DGA] with the headline, “Governors, Business Up Pressure for Bailout Bill.” It’s very hard to read otherwise.

“We strongly urge Congress to leave partisanship at the door and pass an economic recovery package,” they wrote. “It is time for Washington, D.C. to step up, be responsible, an do what’s in the best interest of American taxpayers and our economy.”

Perry, later that day, released a statement that seemed aimed at countering the impression left by his letter without clarifying what he was calling for: “[G]overnment should not be in the business of using taxpayer dollars to bail out corporate America. Congress needs to take off its partisan gloves and work together to bring both short and long term stability to the credit markets….”

Perry maintained in the 2010 primary that he hadn’t supported the bailout, something his spokesman Mark Miner reiterated to me today.

He opposed a “bail out” but publicly supported an “economic recovery package” on the day Congress passed TARP. Essentially, he punted.

Perry's record on immigration will eventually kill his candidacy because he's a border/amnesty/LaRaza squish. Most Americans do not like this....and when conservatives discover Perry's record on illegals, they sour on Perry.

Could not agree more. Plus there's so many other Perry negatives inside Texas that will kill his ambitions outside Texas.

TX governor Perry rapped for paving way for construction of Trans-Texas Corridor
One News Now | August 24, 2007 | Chad Groening
FR Posted on 08/25/2007 by Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Texas Governor Rick Perry is being called to task by an author and investigative journalist for vetoing bills that would have blocked construction of the controversial Trans-Texas Corridor--- which will be part of a superhighway -- purported to be four football fields wide -- that will allow Mexican trucks to enter the U.S. and traverse the core of the country all the way to Canada.

Governor Perry cleared the way for construction to begin in Texas when he vetoed several bills passed by the Legislature that would have stalled the project.

The Texas Legislature voted a two-year moratorium, and voted a redefinition of eminent domain -- Perry vetoed them. [On] at least one of those measures, he waited until the Texas Legislature was out of session so it couldn't even override his veto. The Federal Highway Administration's lawyer wrote letters threatening the Texas Legislature to cut off federal highway funds if they got in the way of this Trans-Texas Corridor.

NOTE Perry used eminent domain to take property from Texans to give to Cintra Concesiones de Infraestructuras de Transporte, S.A., a Spanish transportation company, in its successful bid to develop State Highway 121 into a toll road through Collin and Denton counties (the "trade road" is four football fields wide).

Approved by the Texas Transportation Commission, it is the first privatization of a Texas toll road. Bracewell & Giuliani LLP (Rudy Giuliani's Texas-based law firm with global connections) is acting as project counsel to Cintra with respect to the 50-year concession from the Texas Transportation Commission (ordered by Perry?)

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Toll Road Pardners----Perry endorses Giuliani's 2008 bid for president.

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March 1, 2007
REFERENCE Bracewell & Giuliani Firm Advises Spain's Cintra in First Privatization of Toll Road in Texas

DALLAS Bracewell & Giuliani LLP advised Cintra Concesiones de Infraestructuras de Transporte, S.A., a Spanish transportation company, in its successful bid to develop State Highway 121 into a toll road through Collin and Denton counties.

The award to Cintra, approved by the Texas Transportation Commission, is the first privatization of a Texas toll road. Bracewell is acting as project counsel to Cintra with respect to the 50-year concession from the Texas Department of Transportation. Cintra will pay a $2.1 billion upfront and annual lease payments totaling $700 million. "Cintra was awarded this project because of its proven expertise and competitive proposal," said Thomas O. Moore, partner with Bracewell & Giuliani. "This is the largest transportation deal of 2007. This is one of only five deals in the country."

Three firms have competed for the Comprehensive Development Agreement for State Highway 121 since last summer. The proposals were reviewed and scored based on selection criteria set forth by the Regional Transportation Council, the metropolitan planning agency for the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

This CDA is a public-private partnership that allows the provider to handle all facets of developing the toll road, including completing construction and operating and maintaining the corridor.

Cintra, a subsidiary of Grupo Ferrovial specialized in toll roads and car parks, is one of the world's leading private-sector developers of transport infrastructure.

FR POSTED http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1803916/posts

There are conflicting political winds blowing here. However, with Perry being touted as "the favorite," numbers like this are significant about HIS chances. In light of his calculated campaign strategy to date, Perry's downhill slide is not what he expected.

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READY FOR ANOTHER ANALYSIS (/snix)?

He has a curious string of unbroken wins in Texas that would be hard to achieve elsewhere....plus a mighty presidential war chest of million and millions of dollars, apparently accumulated when he said he WAS NOT running for president.

Watching him in action, I get the feeling Texans don't have much say in the matter of Perry being elected governor.

BACKSTORY Perry did not officially enter the Iowa straw poll......but he calculatedly timed throwing his hat in the ring on the same day Bachman won the Iowa straw poll----stomping all over Bachman's hard-won victory.

Perry cunningly manipulated the Iowa vote from Texas. That strategy was supposed to put him over the top. Instead he got a pathetic 700-800 write-ins ...while Iowa winners who did the right thing-—spending time and money there-—— got 4000 votes each.

The Perrydactyl's were cued to "say" Ricky won Iowa. And there Perry was----front and center---waving to Iowans, taking pics in front of prominent Iowa banners---manipulating the media to make it look like he was the winner.

The winner in his own mind.

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