Posted on 09/22/2010 2:28:09 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Peter Beinart says the GOP is "her party now". Robert Lane Greene at the Economist says "she has to be considered the front-runner." Jon Chait and David Frum agree. So does Paul Mirengoff. Andrew Sullivan, unsurprisingly, asks "who can beat her?" Standing athwart this tide of pessimism - for none of those cited here want Palin to be the Republican nominee - are Ross Douthat and Daniel Larison.
I agree with Douthat and Larison. The case for presidential-nominee Palin rests upon the weakness of the field putatively lined up against her. (Assuming she runs herself, as I think she will.) It ignores the weaknesses of her own candidacy. Her support is deep but narrow and it is hard to see where she can win new supporters and those that she has already are not, probably, sufficiently numerous to win the nomination. How many currently undecided voters will break for Palin - the one candidate about whom almost everyone has already made up their mind? She is, if this is true, close to her maximum level of support already. Where do her extra votes come from?
Secondly, while there are plenty of conservatives who like the idea, at some level, of President Palin many of these sympathisers also suspect that, however regrettably, it's unlikely she can win the Presidency. Even though 66% of Republicans have a favourable view of the lapsed-Governor, just 24% of those conservatives say they plan on voting for Palin.
Or, look at it another way: despite doing everything she can to appeal to the conservative base Palin is polling no better, and often worse, than Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich. She came fifth in the Values Voters Summit straw poll, winning just 7% of the votes cast. If Palin really were the undisputed front-runner we'd expect her to enjoy a lead in the polls right now. At this stage of the cycle one thing is clear: she's no Hillary Clinton.
Nor does the current success of the Tea Party movement (and of Palin-endorsed candidates) necessarily prove much. There's all the difference in the world between off-year primaries and the Presidential campaign season. In one voters are free to endorse their favourites; in the other they consider who might actually win in the general election. There will be a lot of "I like Sarah but I don't think she can win..."
Relatively few nominees in recent times have been chosen with any great measure of enthusiasm. Dole? Meh. Gore? Meh McCain? Meh. Kerry? Super-meh. Granted, they all lost against opponents who did arouse enthusiasm from their supporters and this, I guess, may be Palin's best argument for her candidacy.
Nevertheless, practical considerations will play a part. Palin hasn't been put on the spot, far less had to defend herself under-pressure since the 2008 election. But she won't be able to duck the rigours of a Presidential campaign. The hustings and debates will matter and will help decide which candidates are deemed "viable" not just by the media but by the voters too. And there will be many more of those voters in a Presidential primary than there are in off-year contests.
Whatever her merits Sarah Palin is a minority taste within the GOP right now. What evidence is there to support the notion that, if the field were narrowed to two candidates, she would take home more than half the votes? She's going to have to run a "This is my sensibility" campaign, not a "This is my record" race. That too makes her task more difficult. At some point candidates have to have credible answers to that "What would you do?" question. Does Palin have those answers?
One final thought: things can change very quickly. In October and even November 2007 Howard Dean was the "inevitable" Democratic nominee. We remember how that turned-out don't we?
So while the temper of the conservative movement right now seems to favour Palin the limits of her appeal are also apparent. And since the GOP has decided to award delegates on a proportional rather than winner-takes-all basis also suggests the party establishment (damn them!) is hedging against any candidate romping to victory on the basis of the enthusiasm of a relatively small number of enthusiasts in small, early-voting states.
Sure, if the United States is still in an economic slump in 2011 then perhaps Palin's chances improve. But slogans and bromides and the rest of it aren't usually enough. If America decides it's tiref of Obama it will want a candidate with answers and plans. And that, at present, does not seem to be Palin's long suit.
In other words, she ain't gonna be the nominee. Probably...
What are the chances tghe we won't still be in a "slump" as he calls it? And did Alex somehow miss that Gov. Palin won the even bigger Right Nation straw poll with almost 20% of the vote in a large field?
Nabobs gettin’ busy earlier and earlier each presidential election cycle! I think these stories beat the last time around by 6 months at least!
The more of these ‘they’ put out the better it is.
The writer is an establishment republican [small ‘r’, sic]. Note there is no discussion of Sarah Palin’s policies or platform jsut the same old mumbo-jumbo about who likes her, how they like her and whether she can “win”.
Sorry, that is one of the reason the Tea Party came aboutand why Sarah Palin identifies with it. We don’t “a win”, we want constitutional governance.
Long day at work...time to go home.
I think it will be Christie.
LLS
I hate the so called ‘straw polls’. It’s very clear that Romney and others put strawmen into vote for them at these functions. It’s all bogus.
Hey I hope they keep writing stories like this. It give Sarah more ammo to prove them wrong.
I really wish you folks would find a real man to be cheerleaders for. A time like this, when we need to get this asshole out of the White House, you’re going to play social experiment and put a not so popular woman as a choice AGAINST oboma...
I don’t think it’s to smart. A lot of folks I knew voted for Oboma because they did not like Palin...and unfortunately, her gender...
I think we should keep the glass ceiling in place for now, and get our country back first. then we can start the social experimenting again...
(kevlar and asbestos donned...)
I think he’s just dealing in political reality... it has nothing to with ideology or whether or not you like Palin. I like her on a personal level as well but I have major doubts about her as a candidate (not as a barnstormer mind you).
I just don’t think (and I haven’t seen any evidence to prove otherwise) she has been able to engage substantively in any interview, debate, etc. that leads one to believe she can intellectually hold her own. One-liners and clever facebook posts and tweets are not going to endure an entire presidential campaign, nor will simply being able to give good speeches. I think she will be killed by any mainstream journalist one-on-one and I think Obama or Hillary would make mincemeat out of her.
Now, understand, these are just my initial impressions. But I can’t pretend that the 2008 campaign didn’t happen and somehow Steve Schmidt is to blame for her not being able to be articulate and knowledgeable even in what amounted to an “ambush” interview. The reason I say Christie would be a good nominee (if he can break past the establishment himself)is because it’s obvious he will kill those guys or Obama in a one-on-one, as any youtube video will attest.
Me too. Straw polls are stupid and meaningless whenever votes can be stacked, like at CPAC. Ron Paul and Romney always try to buy that straw poll.
take a look at the female and black vote... the margin narrows considerably...
it’s all hype of course.
Sarah Palin definitely has enough cred to run for the nomination. She will debate the other guys and develop more details in her plans. And IA, NH, SC etc will vote and we’ll find out.
Rudy G was frontrunner last time. Bob Dole was a frontrunner all along, it was hist “turn”, and he lost.
LOL. The female vote is all right, given that females are split on abortion, and the black votes speaks for itself. Obama is 1/2 Arab/African you know?
Now you look at the Independents, since Independents decide elections.
Oh, and please clean up your language the next time you post.
This all reminds me of the attacks on Goldwater and then Reagan.
The left is frightened :)
I’m for Palin but I think Chris Christie would be excellent and if he runs has one of the best shots. He’d likely win NJ if he continues doing a decent job. A Republican who wins NJ wins the WH.
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