Posted on 04/02/2009 3:09:44 PM PDT by BuckeyeTexan
Michael Barone analyzes what we know about the nearly 6,000 absentee ballots that were returned but not yet counted in the NY-20 special election.
"Of those 5,995 votes, 48 percent were cast by registered Republicans, 36 percent were cast by registered Democrats and 16 percent by others. That's a 12 percent Republican advantage, a little less than the 15 percent advantage Republicans have in total party identification. It suggests to me a pretty good Democratic absentee voter drive, since registered Democrats in an Upstate New York district are likelier to be behavioral Democrats than registered Republicans are to be behavioral Republicans... Thus this absentee electorate could be a little more Democratic than the voters who voted on election day."
"However, it's also possible that an effective Republican absentee voter drive targeted those registered Republicans who also indicate that they are behavioral Republicans; if I were setting up an absentee voter drive that's what I'd aim at doing. So this absentee electorate could be a little more Republican than the electorate as a whole. There's no real way to know until the votes are counted."
BREAKING... the Dem has won with a 7,200 vote margin, according to ACORN...
I read that and said - so why in the world did this guy even say anything?
Bwahaha! -- Thanks for the translation. That's kind of the message I was getting after suffering through the first few sentences of this article...
The good news is that after today’s recanvassing (just checking the machines for those votes cast Tuesday nite), Tedisco is now AHEAD by 12 votes, having trailed the Dem by 65 election night.
We will not stop this until we have prosecutions.
I think he wasted breath he could have used on his death bed one day, like tell the wife and kids how he feels.
If the match is EVEN prior to the absentee votes being counted:
If all Registered Republicans voted Republican on the absentee ballots
And
If all Registered Democrats voted Democrat on the absentee ballots
Then it looks like Murphy would need 57.14% of the independent voters, who cast absentee ballots, to win.
I still say it looks pretty good for Tedisco!
(Especially since, NOW, it looks like Tedisco is ahead PRIOR to the absentee vote count!)
Whoops let me check that again
48% GOP registered = 2878
36% Dem registered = 2158
16% Ind registered = 959
Murphy NEEDS 720 votes, if absentees stayed true to their party.
959
x75%
In other words, if the race was now EVEN (it is not, Tedisco is ahead)
And, if all the absentee GOP voters voted Tedisco (most will)
And, if all absentee Dem voters voted Murphy (most will)
Then, Murphy needs MORE than 75% of the Independent absentee ballots.
Anyone see anything wrong with my math?
How sad that we even have to worry about that little fact. That's not to say that a registered Republican shouldn't ever vote outside of party lines. It's just pathethic that the Democrats can pretty much count on registered Democrats to vote Democrat in very high percentages. (Reagan era excluded, of course.)
that 16% nonRat/Pub....probably the libertarians and they can't be liking what is going on if the DC area....
we need to take back our country one seat at a time....
this is why we need more conservative judges and prosecutors.....if Rats keep getting the benefit of those third party dolts stealing elections from legitimate Pubs, then the judges will stay Rat bought and paid for....
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