If the match is EVEN prior to the absentee votes being counted:
If all Registered Republicans voted Republican on the absentee ballots
And
If all Registered Democrats voted Democrat on the absentee ballots
Then it looks like Murphy would need 57.14% of the independent voters, who cast absentee ballots, to win.
I still say it looks pretty good for Tedisco!
(Especially since, NOW, it looks like Tedisco is ahead PRIOR to the absentee vote count!)