It's Over for Kerry in Louisiana; Are Other State Democrat Hopefuls Next?

PoliticsLA.com ^ | July 28, 2004 | Prof. Jeff Sadow

[AuH2ORepublican]

It's Over for Kerry in Louisiana; Are Other State Democrat Hopefuls Next?

PoliticsLA.com Commentary By Prof. Jeff Sadow July 28, 2004

It's now officially over in Louisiana but it was really over five months ago: President George W. Bush was assured of carrying the state as soon as Sen. John Kerry emerged as the presumptive Democrat nominee. Officially over because Democrats have pulled any organized ad campaign for Kerry and even Republicans have dispatched party workers from Louisiana to hotter campaign spots.

A recent poll confirmed this, with Bush having an almost insurmountable lead in the state. One must wonder what Democrat strategists were thinking as Bush never showed signs of vulnerability here and raises questions about how effective a campaign Kerry's staff runs.

Because for Kerry to win in November, pretty much everything must break right for him (or, perhaps another way of putting that is, break wrong for Bush). If preliminary numbers hold, as is predicted, this will be the best year of growth in the economy in two decades. Even if the media underreports this news (as a recent study shows), it still will help Bush and would tip the balance in Bush's favor in a close contest.

Other good omens for Bush include the fact that redistricting added electoral votes mostly to states that support him well, for a projected advantage of 7 more of these votes, and that on the other issue (besides the economy) polls show most important to voters, handling of terrorism, far more voters see him as more capable than Kerry. About the only empirical evidence in Kerry's favor is Bush's approval ratings have hovered recently in the 45-50 percent range, but they must dip to around 40 percent for Kerry to be able to win. Even an incumbent challenger's advantage among undecided voters (they tend to break against the incumbent) is reduced this year given the higher levels of voters who already have made up their minds.

In this environment, while a Kerry landslide is next to impossible, there's an increasing likelihood that Bush may score one. Kerry's writing off the state should minimally affect candidacies of lower-level national Democrats since most have tried to keep their distance from his candidacy. But what would the implications be for Louisiana candidates with a big Bush win nationwide?

This scenario could ensure that, by 2005, the only nationally-elected officials would come from New Orleans, Rep. Bill Jefferson and Sen. Mary Landrieu. The Democrat base will come out to support Kerry even if Bush is expected to do well in the state, but as the president's margin nationwide increases, more of them will stay home out of discouragement. The blanket primary and general (runoff) election date after the national date makes Democrats more competitive here than any in other state in the South, but it can't work miracles.

As of today, count Republicans Bobby Jindal, Jim McCrery, and Richard Baker as sure winners, along with Democrat Jefferson in the House. Republican Billy Tauzin III also is looking good and in a Bush landslide environment might well win without a runoff, but regardless is a likely winner. For this level, the place Democrats would be hurt most is where they currently hold seats, the Fifth (open) and Seventh (held by Rep. Rodney Alexander).

Polls currently place two Democrats slightly ahead in the Seventh. But if the Democrat base turns out in reduced numbers that increases the chances that state Sen. Don Cravins will make the runoff since more liberal black voters, especially goaded by political organizations, would be less likely to slough off. This would open the trap door for state Sen. Willie Mount to fall through and put either Charles Boustany or David Thibodeaux up against Cravins - and whoever runs against him will win in December.

Alexander has the incumbency advantage but also one of the most cross-wise districts in the entire country - the winning Democrat whose own vote was farthest behind his district's vote for Bush. Against former legislator Republican Jock Scott, he has a chance to retain this district only if Kerry stays competitive nationwide.

Perhaps most affected by a Kerry meltdown would be the Senate seat. Rep. David Vitter is in the runoff and, as of now, if there is one against either Rep. Chris John or state Treasurer John Kennedy, separated from other national trends by the late election date, it'll be close. But if enough discouraged Democrats stay home, Vitter can win it outright in November or, more remotely, state Rep. Arthur Morrell could sneak into the runoff for the same reasons Cravins would make it in the Seventh. Vitter would win that matchup handily.

So even if the presidential race seems over here, how it plays out nationwide may have a profound impact on other national elections in Louisiana.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Great news coming out of Lousiana. And the professor is correct that Kerry has to hope that everything works out perfectly for him to be able to win the presidency, while with only a little luck President Bush could win in a landslide.

[AuH2ORepublican]

*POSSIBLE BUSH LANDSLIDE PING*

[Clintonfatigued]

As usual, the Cajun vote in southern Louisiana west of New Orleans will decide the outcome. Chances are, they will stick with Bush. They are largely responsible for Bush's victory over Gore.

The third Congressional district is more complicated than is mentioned. Republicans have two first-tier candidates running. Billy Tauzin III has national fundraising support, but has no electoral record of his own. A number of local Republicans support state Senator Craig Romero, a former Iberia Parish President (equivilent to county executive). Meanwhile, the 'Rats have a strong candidate in Charles Melconcan, scion of a sugar-producing empire.

[Dan from Michigan]

If this stays the case, great. Louisiana is never an easy state to win.

[Coop]

Very interesting reading. Thanks for the ping.

[fieldmarshaldj]

My concern isn't so much Dubya losing LA, but that we'll fall short on the Senate seat... because when it goes to a later-date runoff, we get killed by fraud or chicanery (Moore-Breaux '86; Jenkins-Landrieu '96; Jindal-Blanco '03).

[alnick]

I just saw a Kerry ad in Louisiana. It was on Fox News, so maybe it was run nationally.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Republicans have also fielded a candidate to take on first termer Rodney Alexander in LA-05, an Alexandria Republican named Jock Scott. I hear the national Republicans are taking this race seriously and will pump in money so Scott is competitive.

I'd like to see some progress in LA-07, Chris John's open seat. David Thibodaux is polling behind two Democrats for third place, but the Republican who is securing the major endorsements and who has the most cash of all the candidates, Charles Boustany, is stuck at 7%, way behind everyone else.

As far as the senate race goes, who knows. Chris John is currenly not a lock for the second place in the runoff, and he's spent the past few weeks sniping at Vitter over every issue from coastal restoration to homeland security. Frankly, he's acting like a bit of a snot.

And oh yes, Chris John still has not explained his vote against the House amendment to kill U.S. funding for UN observance of our presidential election, which brings me to this:



I'm keeping track of this and the LA senate race on Vitter Blog.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"David Thibodaux is polling behind two Democrats for third place"

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It's still early. I hope Thibodeaux doesn't get cheated out of the run-off like he was in 1996.

The most interesting scenarios in both the 7th CD and in the Senate race would occur if the white moderates split the white Democrat vote and allow a black liberal to sneak into the run-off against a Republican. I think this is a possibility in the Senate race, as I've written before (see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1095343/posts?page=4#4 ), although less likely in the 7th CD race, since the district's black population isn't all that high. But hopefully Vitter can get 50% on election day and forgo a run-off.

[deport]

Louisiana ping...... Maybe we can get a Senate seat here also....

[deport]

A little info on the Louisiana Races..... Not sure that President Bush was ever in trouble in LA but I know you think differently. Pulling the ads don't mean much from Kerry as he has stopped many for the next month so save his cash..... But pulling campaign workers out indicate that both campaigns must be reading it the same....

[PhiKapMom]

It is run nationally -- it runs here in OK as well and Kerry folded his tent here after the Feb OK primary when he came in 3rd.

[Impy]

I'm curious, do you know if there would be a runnoff for the state's electoral votes if no candidate wins a majority of the vote?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I'm curious, do you know if there would be a runnoff for the state's electoral votes if no candidate wins a majority of the vote?"

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No, there wouldn't. In fact, Clinton carried the state with only 45.6% in 1992, and there was no run-off.

[Theodore R.]

Is Jock Scott running for the Alexander House seat? I did not know that the Republicans were contesting that race. Scott's father, the late Nauman Scott, was the Nixon-appointed federal judge who ordered massive cross-parish school busing to achieve racial balance in the 1970s and 1980s.

[Theodore R.]

I believe that Scott ran unsuccessfully for this seat (in a reconfigured district) in 1985, when the popular Democrat Gillis W. Long died on the day of Reagan's second inaugural.

[Theodore R.]

Also, Scott was an early organizer for Jimmy Carter in Rapides Parish in 1976.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Is Jock Scott running for the Alexander House seat?"

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Yes, he's running. According to Politics1.com, Lee Fletcher, Kay Katz and Robert Barham are also possible candidates, but none of them have declared yet. I think Cooksey already said he wouldn't seek his old House seat.

Was it Jock Scott or his dad who ran for the House in 1985 and who organized Rapides Parish for Carter in 1976?

[Theodore R.]

It was Jock Scott, a former Democrat state legislator who ran for Congress in 1985. I don't recall if he ran as a Democrat or Republican that year. His late father, Nauman S. Scott, was a Republican who lost a race for local office in 1966. Nixon made him a federal judge; Scott was unpopular among conservatives, the epitome of the "big government" judge. By the middle or late 80s, Scott had also become Republicans. It was Jock Scott and now Alexandria Mayor Edward "Ned" Randoloph, then a state senator, who organized Rapides Parish for the Carter-Mondale forces.

[Theodore R.]

I believe that Lee Fletcher has also taken himself out of consideration in 2004 for the House. He narrowly lost to Alexander in 2002, when Mary Landrieu led the state Democrats to a big victory. Fletcher cannot take time from his new business to run.

Apparently, Clyde Holloway is not making his fifth or sixth losing race again this year.