Senate Race Won't Be That Crowded (LOUISIANA)

PoliticsLA.com ^ | January 7, 2004 | Jim Brown

[AuH2ORepublican]

SENATE RACE WON'T BE THAT CROWDED

by Jim Brown PoliticsLA.com columnist posted January 7, 2004

Following the intense interest in the recent gubernatorial election, the general assumption has been that there will be a number of major candidates vying to fill the U. S. Senate seat being vacated this fall by long time incumbent John Breaux. Not so! When qualification time comes around, you can count the number of major candidates on one hand.

Numerous newspaper columns have touted several unsuccessful gubernatorial candidates as sure qualifiers. The columns point to the 1996 race when Mary Landrieu bounced back from a gubernatorial loss and captured the seat from several other statewide elected officials.

But there was one factor that wasn't there in the '96 race; the presence of any members of congress. Invariably, a Louisiana congressman has a “leg up” on the competition. A congressman has the inside track to Washington PAC money. Go back to 1986 when democratic congressman John Breaux won a close victory over republican congressman Henson Moore. Both Congressman served in Washington for years, and had developed close relationships within their respective party structures as well as national PAC's that financed more that two-thirds of both candidates' campaigns.

The same will be true in 2004. Congressman David Vitter from Jefferson parish has been focusing in the race for the past year. He has approximately one and a half million dollars in his congressional campaign fund that can be used in a U.S. Senate race.

On the democratic side, Congressman Chris John from southwest Louisiana has some one million dollars in his congressional account. and is hoping to put together the Breaux organization statewide. With their congressional base and a lot of money in the bank, both of these candidates, on paper, are far out front.

There are other candidates being mentioned. Treasurer John Kennedy was on the phone looking for support after Breaux's announcement. So was Attorney General Richard Ieyoub. But the bottom line is money, and many potential givers in Louisiana are “tapped out” after the governor's race. In the U.S. senate race, look for more than two-thirds of the money spent by the two candidates who make the run-off to come in from outside the state. It shouldn't be this way. A Louisiana senator should be beholden only to Louisiana voters. When you take more than two-thirds of your money from out-of-state, that support comes with a price. There ought to be a law that all campaign funds have to come from within the state. But don't look for that to happen.

What you should look for is that John Kennedy will stay as state treasurer, be a little frustrated over his options, and “hang in there” in the coming years with the hopes that another opportunity will open up for him. As for Richard Ieyoub, he has a big family, and will take the opportunity to make a sizeable income after being in public life over the last 20 years. Expect him to announce a tie with a major law firm, probably Adams and Reese, within the next few weeks.

So is there any other candidate out there that can take on the two congressman? Republican oilman Bill Fenstermaker from Lafayette considered the governor's race, and his name has been floating around. But don't expect him to run.

There is one potential candidate that has both congressmen worried. He's never run for office before. If he does decide to make the race, he could be favored from day one. Baton Rouge businessman Jim Bernhard is receiving calls from a cross section of potential supporters to consider the race. Bernhard is the founder and CEO of The Shaw Group, one of the few Fortune 500 companies in Louisiana . He was Richard Ieyoub's finance chairman in the recent gubernatorial race and presently heads up Governor-elect Blanco's transition team. If he runs, Bernhard will have the best of both worlds. Because of his political relationships with a number of elected officials, he can quickly build a statewide organization. Both Congressmen are well-known in their district, but have little name recognition and organization in other parts of the state.

Besides his own political resources to put into the race, Bernhard is well-connected to the business community in Louisiana as well as having the ability to raise money through Shaw contacts throughout the country. He will also have the advantage of being able to lump both Congressman together and run against the Washington establishment. A lot of Louisiana‘s problems come from being short-changed in Washington, and Bernhard can lay the blame on those who are serving there now.

If he runs, Bernhard will have to make a fairly quick decision. John and Vitter are both actively working to put together their state organization, and courting money sources throughout the country. Look for the field to be pretty well set by the first of February.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Lousiana political columnist Jim Brown says that Chris John and David Vitter will likely be the only two candidates in the race to replace John Breaux in the Senate. That would help us, since a one-on-one race would allow Vitter to benefit from George W. Bush's coattails and win a majority in November (if no one gets 50%+1 in November, the top two finishers would go on to a Bushless December runoff).

Also of note is his mention of Republican oilman Bill Fenstermaker of Lafayette as someone whose name has been mentioned for the Senate race, but who probably won't run. I wonder if Fenstermaker can be convinced to run for Chris John's open House seat, which is centered in Lafayette? A Republican who can run as well as Bush in Lafayette Parish (the parish is heavily Republican in presidential elections but less so in state and congressional races) would have an excellent chance of winning the House seat.

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[AuH2ORepublican]

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[JohnnyZ]

Hmmm. I can still see Ieyoub or Kennedy running. After all, what do they have to lose? Nothing.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I agree. Kennedy doesn't have to give up his office to run, and Ieyoub is looking for new work.

[Impy]

I agree our best shot is winning it in November. OR runnof versus Ieyboub.

Kennedy running could suck conservative rats who would otherwise vote Vitter.

I read somewhere that a Lafayette State Senator (R) will probably run for John's seat.

[WFTR]

If a one-on-one race will help Republicans, I think we can guarantee that the Democrats will field at least two candidates. In spite of our hopes around dedicated Republican voters coming to the run-off elections, we've lost two consecutive run-offs. The Democrats will believe that they have an advantage there, and they'll field enough candidates to force a run-off. I'd look for at least one major black candidate and two or three geographical candidates.

Another Terri's Law
Bill