[Eric Hogue 1380 KTKZ]

The new Field Poll will be released in the morning. From two sources in the "Belly of the Beast", here is how the poll plays out:

Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante at 25%

Arnold Schwarzenegger at 22%

State Senator Tom McClintock at 10%

Bill Simon at 8%

What happened to Arnold? Seems like it's time for AS to start talking. The other revelation is McClintock's growth and Simon's fall. If you combine Simon's numbers with McClintcok you have the Senator at 17-18%, right behind AS with all of the boost he has had over the past two weeks. Impressive growth from Tom McClintock!

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

McClintock has my vote and probably that of my young daughter-her first vote!

[habs4ever]

Yup, he's picking up,barely, but he'll still lose by an enormous margin.McClintock can still get every purist vote in CA, but when he wakes up the next day, he'll still be trounced in a rout.Does the prospect of such a Democrat victory make you joyous?

[ambrose]

Arnold's All Rino All The Time campaign is beginning to implode.

[ladyinred]

We are doomed if Cruz Bustamante is our governor. I am worried enough that he will win with the usual democrat voter fraud.

[oceanview]

this goes against most of the other information. But in any case, CA is getting one last chance to save itself. If they choose not to, so be it. They have a large tax base there that can pay the bills at the state level, bring on the diaper tax and all the rest.

[ambrose]

Raise your property taxes, vote for Arnold!

Will they be printing this on a bumpersticker?

[Pubbie]

Look at this!

I think this poll overestimates Bustamante's strength because Republicans will be turning in much larger numbers on Oct 7th than Democrats will.

Hopefully Simon (the idiot) will drop out.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Buffett and the Prop 13 comment have just killed Arnold's candidacy. There is nothing that will get Dems and Republicans energized like that will.

My guess is that the Hispanic contingent which originally supported Arnold is shifting to Cruz. Simon's drop in the polls is no surprise. Most of his base has gone to McClintock. And why would anyone be surprised that McClintock is on the rise? He is getting more and more exposure. His numbers will continue to rise.

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

[breakem]

There's some criticism of the poll on this thread, but it makes sense to me. How can you have three fairly big name repubs and 1 dem and expect to beat the dems in the election.

I can't see dems abandoning Busta even if they're tired of Davis. Arnold has to show something more than good advisors. He will have to get out there and talk platform. And that still may not beat a lone dem.

[The Old Hoosier]

There's still time for Arnold to get out...

[Walkingfeather]

Er... YEAH Right.... and I lead the entire field by 4 billion points...
Why even post this crap... it is made up. Davis just polled at 22%. This is a response dont you get it? THEY MADE IT UP!

[ElkGroveDan]

Everyone needs to remember that Field is a notoriously Dem-weighted poll. It asks people to self-identify their propensity to vote. It also gives weight to counties by population, rather than by the percentage that actually casts votes, so for example San Francisco gets consideration based on its high population not its low voter turnout. Conversely counties like Placer don't get enough weight, even though far more of them vote than anywhere else.

The gist of this is that Cruz and Liberal Arnold are probably over-ranked here, and Simon and McClintock are probably underranked.

It's almost time for Duf Sundheim to place a call to Liberal Arnold and ask him to not split the Republican vote and drop out for the good of the party.

Meanwhile (you heard it here first), I predict Bustamante comes in third behind 1) The conservative (of Tom or Bill whoever pulls ahead and holds it)
2) Liberal Arnold

[EternalVigilance]

I'm having a very hard time believing this. Seems in-credible.

[IpaqMan]

I do not think it is reasonable to show growth or decline in polling numbers by comparing two different surveys.

It was not mentioned whether this poll is based upon registered voters or likely voters.

[IpaqMan]

Sorry, by two different surveys, I mean surveys from different polling organizations.

[Simmy2.5]

I'm taking a wait and see on this one. As someone pointed out, if this Field Poll had most of its polling done in say, San Francisco that is the ONLY places where Davis is leading...this poll would be very misleading.

But if anything, it goes to show people that to win the election, it will take more then a few one-liners and a bunch of top advisors to get someone elected. I'm confident that Arnold WILL hammer down on more concrete plans...but in the meantime...it won't help him get elected.