Hogue's Blog Sites Bustamante Lead!

Hogue and KTKZ Radio ^ | August 15, 2005 | Eric Hogue

[Eric Hogue 1380 KTKZ]

Breaking: Cruz Bustamante leads the latest Field Poll, reported by Eric Hogue of KTKZ and confirmed by two sources tonight.

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

[ambrose]

Arnie peaked a week into the campaign, McClintock is coming on strong!

I'd like to see Arnie vs. McClintock in a one on one debate with only one topic "Are California's property taxes too low?"

[Paul8148]

Yes it is a turnout race right now and remember the Jesse factor in Minnsota. I think with are the campigns (Expect for Mclintock) come out of "Bunker mode" and into the campign mode in the next few days. We see if Peter jumps on this to get the pro-choice Repbulicans.

[ambrose]

Face it, Arnold is *FINISHED*!!

No use supporting that loser. Don't be the last one to jump off the bandwagon! Join McClintock's campaign!

[oceanview]

"Do you, Cruz Bustamente, promise to uphold the laws of the state of California..."

[spokeshave]

When were the poll dates....Buffetts bomshell is less than 24 hours old....?....did it have that much impact....is anyone watching apart from we few ....us band of FReepers this St Swithans day.....?

[dr_who_2]

So do I.

[dr_who_2]

...not that we're certain that Gov. Ahnold wouldn't raise taxes himself (having Buffett on his side isn't a good sign)

[07055]

I think this poll overestimates Bustamante's strength because Republicans will be turning in much larger numbers on Oct 7th than Democrats will.

I think illegal aliens will be the biggest voting block---and, of course, we know who they will vote for. Probably multiple times, in fact.

[breakem]

There's some criticism of the poll on this thread, but it makes sense to me. How can you have three fairly big name repubs and 1 dem and expect to beat the dems in the election.

I can't see dems abandoning Busta even if they're tired of Davis. Arnold has to show something more than good advisors. He will have to get out there and talk platform. And that still may not beat a lone dem.

[spokeshave]

Could be the dems congealing (nasty thought) on Bustamente since greyout davis tanked.

[Eric Hogue 1380 KTKZ]

I'm trying to find the dates. My sources are solid. I never go with just two, but the two individuals where sure about the rankings - look for it (poll) in the Saturday or Sunday papers...BTW, Tom McClintock on Fox News in the morning at 10:20AM...hand around until 11:05 and I'll say hello after Tom!

[The Old Hoosier]

There's still time for Arnold to get out...

[Walkingfeather]

Er... YEAH Right.... and I lead the entire field by 4 billion points...
Why even post this crap... it is made up. Davis just polled at 22%. This is a response dont you get it? THEY MADE IT UP!

[ElkGroveDan]

Everyone needs to remember that Field is a notoriously Dem-weighted poll. It asks people to self-identify their propensity to vote. It also gives weight to counties by population, rather than by the percentage that actually casts votes, so for example San Francisco gets consideration based on its high population not its low voter turnout. Conversely counties like Placer don't get enough weight, even though far more of them vote than anywhere else.

The gist of this is that Cruz and Liberal Arnold are probably over-ranked here, and Simon and McClintock are probably underranked.

It's almost time for Duf Sundheim to place a call to Liberal Arnold and ask him to not split the Republican vote and drop out for the good of the party.

Meanwhile (you heard it here first), I predict Bustamante comes in third behind 1) The conservative (of Tom or Bill whoever pulls ahead and holds it)
2) Liberal Arnold

[EternalVigilance]

I'm having a very hard time believing this. Seems in-credible.