Posted on 11/02/2026 6:37:19 AM PST by oldskoolwargamer2
I'll show you mine if you show me yours...
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Going by RCP Senate Map...
Likely Dem: NC, NM, GA - I think all these go blue, would require a monumental polling miss for any of these to go our way.
Leans Dem: NH - I had some hope for this race early but Pappas appears to be pulling away. Goes D. MN - Real interesting race. Tafoya has done a nice job for a first time candidate, has been hanging around and Flanagan seems stuck below 50%. Unfortunately I think the environment is just too tough to predict a victory for a first timer in a state that has not elected a Republican senator in almost a quarter of a century. Stays D.
Toss Ups: AK: The Sullivan kerfluffle is clouding the picture here. I think Sullivan (the real one) takes it based on some backlash from Peltola's dirty tricks. Goes R. IA: It's Iowa. Not seeing an upset in a Trump +13 state despite the close polling. Goes R. KS: See above except it was a Trump +16 state. Goes R. MN: Collin's last stand. She always outperforms her polling. It will be tight but she pulls it out. Goes R. MI: This one will be painful. The thought of Abdul El Sayed in the Senate turns my stomach. It will be close. Apparently he is struggling with the black vote but he has not trailed in a poll for months and has been getting over 50%. Goes D. OH: This one also turns my stomach, an idiot like Sherrod Brown winning a Trump +11 state is brutal. But he has led in the last dozen or so polls and has been over 50%. Goes D. SC: Close polling but Graham Nardone should take this one. Andrews will peel off some Trump voters but not enough. Goes R. TX: The marquee race of the cycle. Talarico is a clown but he is charismatic and Texas D's have been waiting for this for a long time. Paxton is not a strong candidate and I think some of Trump's policies will cost him Latino votes here. Pains me to say it but goes D.
Leans GOP: FL: Not gonna happen for the Dems here. Nixon is a flake and has never sniffed a lead in any poll. Stays R. NE: Not much polling here but it's Nebraska. Osborn led in September in some sketchy polls but NYT had Ricketts +6. If this goes D it will have to be a massive upset, not seeing it. Stays R.
Likely GOP: MS, MT - It would take a blue tsunami the likes of which we haven't seen since FDR or LBJ to flip either of these. These stay R.
So Dems win 3 of the 8 RCP tossup states, which gets them to 50. Close but no cigar, we hang on by the skin of our teeth. Collins will wield immense power for the last two years of Trump's term, he owes her a lot for hanging in there for one more cycle.
If the Senate is 50-50 R, you are counting on Murkowski not switching parties like Jim Jeffords did to give the Dems the majority. Don’t bet against it.
I don’t predict anything because of fraud.
I really REALLY hope that Abbott can pull Paxton over the finish line. If Abbott can win by more than 3, I predict Paxton will eek out a close victory. But if Abbott wins by less than 3 or God forbid loses, Paxton will also.
I hope I’m wrong but I worry about South Carolina. Darlene Graham does not present as a strong general election campaigner and only won the primary due to Trump’s endorsement. I guess we’ll see tomorrow night.
Despite this being a mid-term election, which historically go against the President, I am not thrilled by this outlook.
The fact that James Talarico could be a Senator is mind-numbing on its own. Chances are good if he wins this, he will likely be a Senator for a long, long time.
The fact that we could elect a Muslim as a Senator is even more ludicrous than a panty-waist like Talarico winning Texas. I mean, do people actually have a world view of what Muslims do to countries they infiltrate? Their goal is to make the WHOLE WORLD A CALIPHATE. Its in their book.
I truly hope the polling is incorrect and somehow the House and Senate are held. But, I wouldn’t bet on it. Republicans don’t historically show up at midterms for some reason. The midterms are just as important as Presidential election years. Sometimes a divided government is a good thing. I think that Trump will have a huge VETO stamp ready for a Dem congress.
Final results: GOP + 2 in the Senate and we lose the House but it's close enough where gridlock will be the preference for the next two years.
Yeah, that’s an ugly possibility too.
I hope so too. Losing TX Senate seat would be devastating.
Would love to see a Tafoya win. I thought she was a solid upset candidate. But I think the headwinds are just a little too much this cycle. I hope she continues in politics even if she loses this race.
I think the polls are radically skewed and we possibly hold on to 52.
Talarico will piss off the wrong people in Texas. And Cornyn’s political career is over.
I think the Graham loyalists will step to the plate...she’ll be a copycat.
That’s what a lot of people thought in 2008 with Barack HUSSEIN Obama in 2008. I mean it was only seven years after 9/11.
I hope so. Of all the D wins I predicted I feel the least sure about this one. Polling doesn’t have to be off by much for an R win in this one.
Would take a pretty big miss but I could definitely see Talarico and El Sayed losing. That would keep it at 52. Would bode well for the House as well, keep D gains to a minimum.
As I recall, for of the five closest senate races in 2022 went D. NV was particularly troublesome. One wonders if results are managed now. Perhaps Trump won in 2024 because he made a deal. I am getting more and more cynical in my old age.
We will lose NC, may lose OH and AK. But we'll gain MI.
I’m pretty much where you are — maybe I’m wearing rose-colored glasses, but I think we land on 50-50 and Vance does a LOT of voting.
I do think we flip Michigan - happy to give Stevens a nice (but meaningless) ambassadorship somewhere. But lose NC, OH, and (gulp) TX. I think Collins hangs on in Maine.
I’d be absolutely thrilled to be wrong about OH and TX - and I might be.
Nail biters elsewhere, but stave off disaster in IA, KS, and AK... and I’m really not worried about SC (or MS or LA or FL). Closer than they should be, but still 5-10 point wins. Closer to 5 in SC, but closer to 10 in the mirages.
Had high hopes in NH and some hope for MN, but just not a good cycle to flip them.
I don’t have a lot of faith in any of these polls - as they have been so wrong recently - remember Kamala Harris up by three in Iowa - a state Trump took by 13 points?
Polls also - right before the 2024 election - had Kamala Harris in the lead in the so-called battle states:
“In a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey from late September 2024, Harris held a 3-point overall lead across the seven swing states, specifically leading in Nevada (52% to 45%) and Pennsylvania (51% to 46%), while trailing or tying in others like Georgia. A separate Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll published in early October 2024 found Harris ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with Donald Trump leading in Arizona and North Carolina.
Other surveys, such as a Cook Political Report poll in August 2024, indicated Harris led or tied Trump in six of the seven states.”
Trump took all of the battle ground states.
Republicans are difficult to poll.
I’m more concerned about Vote Fraud, and no thanks to John Thune, we should have plenty of it.
Thune has repeatedly blocked floor votes on the SAVE Act.
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