Pollster Admits the Dems 'Blue Wave' Prediction Could Suffer Death by a Thousand Cuts

Townhall ^ | 11-02-2026 | Matt Vespa

[Dan in Wichita]

Nate Silver is part of the polling corps that’s hedging their bets. He wrote on Sunday that a blue wave looks likely, because that’s what all his colleagues are saying. Some of these projections are wild this year, like predicting Florida will have a Democrat governor. Not going to happen.

In 2024, Silver infuriated Democrats with his Electoral College projections because Trump was winning; he swung to the other side slightly when Kamala Harris took over. Trump won. In 2026, he’s saying a blue wave will essentially happen only in blue states and, more importantly, that the GOP has a ton of winning combinations:

[Dan in Wichita]

The dean of Democrat pollsters, Nate Silver, is warning Democrats they may be disappointed on Tuesday night.

[Libloather]

A weather forecaster can be wrong 100% of the time yet have the exact same job the next morning.

[beef]

Republicans have made so many errors, crappy candidates being the biggest. We can only hope and pray.

[Red Badger]

Things I don’t believe in:

UFO’s

BIGFOOT

GHOSTS

MAGIC

POLITICAL POLLS...............

[Stingray51]

Bad Republican candidates? Ok but let’s not forget Talafreako and “Dr” Jihad

[drwoof]

It may just be my darker mood of late, but I suspect the democrats will be winning big. They are enthusiastic about their candidates, the more aberrant and destructive, in their minds, the better. Hence the current crop of communists and muslims. Meanwhile, the Republican Party is adrift. I, for example, am disgusted by our President publicly swooning over some skanky entertainer’s ass. That kind of conduct makes me less than proud of my party, to say the least.

[SMARTY]

“...Death by a Thousand (self inflicted) Cuts...”

[roving]

Just a few posts up, it says the complete opposite.

[No name given]

Here’s hoping the commies lose big time.

[beef]

You are not taking in account that the legacy media will obsess over every flaw in a Republican and ignore them in a democrat. We have to be much better.

[beef]

I agree with all of that. The dems want to burn it all down with no consideration of how that will affect them, and to the extent they have them, their friends and family. And yes, DJT has the right policies, but he shoots himself in the foot at every turn. I guess the best we can hope for is gridlock for 2 years. I just hope things don’t descend into the kind of violence w are seeing in Europe.

[TBP]

republicans have a shot at flipping Michigan and an outside shot at flipping Minnesota. If either of those happens, the Democrats have to flip fie seats to win the Senate. If both happen, the Dhimmicraps have to flip six.

One Democrat flip figures to be North Carolina.

Interestingly, the midterms could create two Senate vacancies (one Republican, one Democrat) that would be filled by the ones who vacate them. If, as expected, Senators Amy Klobuchar and Senator Marsha Blackburn win their races for Governor, they will appoint their own successors.

[MinorityRepublican]

I, for example, am disgusted by our President publicly swooning over some skanky entertainer’s @$$.

No one cares about that.

If we lose, it's due to the Iran War.

[Fledermaus]

Bull

[CheshireTheCat]

In the article, Vespa features two interesting recent polls that show:

Republicans are leading on the congressional ballot in GOP-held districts and in states Trump won in 2024 Per NBC Poll and Voters now trust Republicans more to handle the economy over democrats per NBC Poll and

Trust with the economy:
September: 🔵 Democrats +1
Now: 🔴 Republicans +2

If it is true what other polls featured in the same article and posted on FR in recent days seem to suggest regarding how Demonrats answer pollsters’ calls three times more frequently than Republicans and twice as frequently independents do, then who is answering the pollsters who are not polling about who one is going to vote for but are polling about general opinions on the R versus D party?

I do not think that Republicans and independents would for some reason be that significantly more likely to answer a poll about opinions on Congress and which party is better for the economy. If R’s and I’s just don’t like talking to or just do not trust political pollsters at a higher rate than D’s, they aren’t going to take any political poll.

Methinks a lot of D’s are not feeling too good about their own party because of its extremism and feel R’s are a safer better because they will not pursue wacky policies. A number of these D’s are answering the pollsters that are asking about more general sentiment toward the parties rather than who one is going to vote for and letting it be known they have some serious misgivings about the direction of the D party.

[Dan in Wichita]

The polls are all over the place. I just saw a poll reported on Newsmax showing voters view the Democrat party about 10 points less favorable than Republicans. And yet there are all these polls showing Democrat candidates winning? None of it makes sense.

[drwoof]

Political Schizophrenia. People, middle class people, are feeling desperate as inflation has continued to erode their quality of life while the President lusts after Nikki Minaj’s rump. That’s hard to reconcile. We need to have faith in our President, and to believe that he’s a decent man. Absent either, people are willing to go with the sleazy democrat who is at least ‘honest’ about their sleaziness, all the while knowing that the (at least claimed) principles of the Republican Party are the right ones and would save our nation.

[Dan in Wichita]

Interesting theory. There are enough stupid, ignorant, corrupt, and mentally ill people in this country who will vote Democrat to prove your theory correct.