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Vivek Ramaswamy’s Betting Odds Crater After Blowback from Ad — Now Has Just 22% Chance to Win Ohio Gov’s Race
Mediaite ^ | October 21, 2026

Posted on 10/21/2026 8:13:14 AM PDT by Miami Rebel

Republican Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is doubling down on a controversial ad featuring his Democratic opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother, but it seems to be catastrophically backfiring on him as his odds of winning the election have cratered.

In the ad, Donna Arthur, the candidate’s estranged mother who lost custody of her and her younger brother when Acton was 12, lambasts her daughter as a “liar” and urges viewers not to vote for her. Acton has publicly spoken about her troubled childhood for years, well before she ran for office, including the reason her mother lost custody: documented neglect and abuse, including Acton’s stepfather sexually abusing her from the ages of 9 to 12. Arthur sided with her husband against her daughter and the two have not spoken since she lost custody.

The ad drew swift and vociferous condemnation from a chorus of bipartisan voices, with many prominent conservatives declaring the ad made them more sympathetic towards Acton. Her campaign shared a statement and then a video message from her brother denouncing Ramaswamy for “platforming their estranged and abusive mother,” and National Review and other media outlets dug up the legal documents confirming Acton’s story, all of which increased the criticism of Ramaswamy.

It was not initially clear who paid for the ad, as it was circulating online without a disclaimer (apparently provided directly to conservative influencers, many of whom declared it a “bombshell” and devastating “October surprise”). The Ramaswamy campaign issued a statement that neither denied nor condemned the ad, instead attacking Acton as a “serial fabulist,” but the campaign and even the candidate himself did admit it was their ad a few hours later.

Ramaswamy campaign manager Jonathan Ewing told Axios the campaign was dropping $4 million to televise the ad across Ohio and declared “this is a campaign-ending moment for Amy Acton.”

Ewing may be right about it being a “campaign-ending moment,” but for his own candidate, not Acton.

Ramaswamy was already slipping behind Acton in the polling, with CNN data guru Harry Enten marveling at Ramaswamy’s “worst this century” polling among Ohio independents the day before the ad was shared.

The latest numbers from prediction market Polymarket show Ramaswamy got a minor, one-point bump on Tuesday morning, around the time the ad first started spreading online, but then his numbers cratered amid the bipartisan backlash as the day went on and reporting confirmed Acton’s story.

Polymarket’s political gamblers currently give Ramaswamy only a 22% chance of winning, nudging up from his low of 21% on Wednesday afternoon. The graph shows Ramaswamy was already on a downward trajectory and then his numbers plummeted as outrage about the ad grew throughout the day. Acton currently has a 79% chance of winning, according to Polymarket.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: acton; concerntroll; dnctrolls; notevenapoll; ohio; ramaswamy; tds; tdsposter
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To: montag813

Trump has foisted so many weak candidates on the GOP over the last 10 years.


61 posted on 10/21/2026 9:44:34 AM PDT by GrootheWanderer
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To: FLT-bird

You mean the mother who absconded with her child-rapist husband and with whom the candidate has had no contact for decades?


62 posted on 10/21/2026 9:46:59 AM PDT by Miami Rebel (RE)
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To: Miami Rebel

Absconded under indictment for raping her and died with warrants outstanding for his arrest.


63 posted on 10/21/2026 9:50:17 AM PDT by MomentsofSanity
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To: Fai Mao
in Texas, the Democrats continue to air outright lies

The Democrats lie??? Say it isn't so!

64 posted on 10/21/2026 9:51:57 AM PDT by Schatze (It's better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt.)
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To: hinckley buzzard

It also made her look like she was part of an unstable background. Which appears to be valid. And I’d steer clear of that sort of baggage.


65 posted on 10/21/2026 9:56:17 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: GrootheWanderer

The Demoshits are the ones who are demonic. Openly, loud and proud antisemitic, antiChristian, anti American, anti human.

Better a pagan than an apostate


66 posted on 10/21/2026 9:57:37 AM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: montag813

I think Acton will probably win also, and since the Ohio state legislature is solidly GOP, we are likely headed for several years of gridlock, which might not be the worst thing to happen.


67 posted on 10/21/2026 10:05:53 AM PDT by IndyTiger
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To: montag813

It appears that there’s no good choice for governor in Ohio. Gird your loins, folks.


68 posted on 10/21/2026 10:14:25 AM PDT by Schatze (It's better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt.)
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To: Miami Rebel

She’s still her own mother.


69 posted on 10/21/2026 10:21:43 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: bray

Oh I’m not claiming betting markets are right, but the fact this race is even close at all is because the GOP primary voters picked a complete dud and fraud


70 posted on 10/21/2026 10:23:16 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Miami Rebel; All

UPDATE, VP VANCE:” STOP WHINING ABOUT AN AVERTISMENT AND GO WIN, THE DEMOCRATS DID FAR WORSE TO US.”


71 posted on 10/21/2026 10:24:45 AM PDT by cowboyusa (YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA!)
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To: Reddy

You are missing the point whether Vivek wins or Acton doesn’t matter. Ohio will suffer….


72 posted on 10/21/2026 10:31:44 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Miami Rebel

I don’t believe this for one minute.


73 posted on 10/21/2026 11:01:01 AM PDT by Ge0ffrey
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To: hcmama

There’s nothing repulsive about the ad.


74 posted on 10/21/2026 11:02:05 AM PDT by Ge0ffrey
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To: iontheball

It’s not a repulsive ad, no matter how many times you call it a repulsive ad.


75 posted on 10/21/2026 11:03:28 AM PDT by Ge0ffrey
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To: bray

Originally the betting polls were decent. Then the political machine especially on the left figured out it was pretty cheap to shift the odds with a lot of little bets. So yeah worthless now.


76 posted on 10/21/2026 11:18:10 AM PDT by piytar (NEVER FORGET Ashli Babbitt, Rosanne Boyland, Corey Comperatore, Iryna Zarutska, and Charlie Kirk!)
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To: HamiltonJay

I know that.


77 posted on 10/21/2026 11:29:51 AM PDT by Reddy (BO stinks)
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To: IndyTiger

She will declare Ohio a sanctuary state and let in all the illegals and do everything she can to raise taxes and circumvent our 1st and 2nd amendment rights… our so called conservative house and senate didn’t stop DeRhino much…


78 posted on 10/21/2026 11:32:17 AM PDT by Reddy (BO stinks)
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To: MomentsofSanity

You are posting Demonrat talking points on a conservative website. Go back to DuhU.


79 posted on 10/21/2026 11:35:24 AM PDT by Reddy (BO stinks)
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To: Trumpisourlastchance

Totally agree with you.


80 posted on 10/21/2026 11:43:30 AM PDT by EvelynMcHale (vroom, vroom, mothertrucker)
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