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Vivek Ramaswamy’s Betting Odds Crater After Blowback from Ad — Now Has Just 22% Chance to Win Ohio Gov’s Race
Mediaite ^ | October 21, 2026

Posted on 10/21/2026 8:13:14 AM PDT by Miami Rebel

Republican Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is doubling down on a controversial ad featuring his Democratic opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother, but it seems to be catastrophically backfiring on him as his odds of winning the election have cratered.

In the ad, Donna Arthur, the candidate’s estranged mother who lost custody of her and her younger brother when Acton was 12, lambasts her daughter as a “liar” and urges viewers not to vote for her. Acton has publicly spoken about her troubled childhood for years, well before she ran for office, including the reason her mother lost custody: documented neglect and abuse, including Acton’s stepfather sexually abusing her from the ages of 9 to 12. Arthur sided with her husband against her daughter and the two have not spoken since she lost custody.

The ad drew swift and vociferous condemnation from a chorus of bipartisan voices, with many prominent conservatives declaring the ad made them more sympathetic towards Acton. Her campaign shared a statement and then a video message from her brother denouncing Ramaswamy for “platforming their estranged and abusive mother,” and National Review and other media outlets dug up the legal documents confirming Acton’s story, all of which increased the criticism of Ramaswamy.

It was not initially clear who paid for the ad, as it was circulating online without a disclaimer (apparently provided directly to conservative influencers, many of whom declared it a “bombshell” and devastating “October surprise”). The Ramaswamy campaign issued a statement that neither denied nor condemned the ad, instead attacking Acton as a “serial fabulist,” but the campaign and even the candidate himself did admit it was their ad a few hours later.

Ramaswamy campaign manager Jonathan Ewing told Axios the campaign was dropping $4 million to televise the ad across Ohio and declared “this is a campaign-ending moment for Amy Acton.”

Ewing may be right about it being a “campaign-ending moment,” but for his own candidate, not Acton.

Ramaswamy was already slipping behind Acton in the polling, with CNN data guru Harry Enten marveling at Ramaswamy’s “worst this century” polling among Ohio independents the day before the ad was shared.

The latest numbers from prediction market Polymarket show Ramaswamy got a minor, one-point bump on Tuesday morning, around the time the ad first started spreading online, but then his numbers cratered amid the bipartisan backlash as the day went on and reporting confirmed Acton’s story.

Polymarket’s political gamblers currently give Ramaswamy only a 22% chance of winning, nudging up from his low of 21% on Wednesday afternoon. The graph shows Ramaswamy was already on a downward trajectory and then his numbers plummeted as outrage about the ad grew throughout the day. Acton currently has a 79% chance of winning, according to Polymarket.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: acton; concerntroll; dnctrolls; notevenapoll; ohio; ramaswamy; tds; tdsposter
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To: Trumpisourlastchance
Why is it worse than Action lying about being assaulted at a campaign event? She also exaggerated her tent experience among other things.

Politics is hardball, but when the rough stuff starts everyone comes to her defense because ... its not nice to hit the girl. Bull shit!

The truth is, Amy is not very bright or articulate and seems to have some alcohol and other problems. She totally f'd Ohio during COVID and couldn't handle it. She lasted 92 days. She has more baggage than Delta airlines and would get clobbered in a debate.

Just what we need as governor of Ohio ... think Biden and estrogen.

41 posted on 10/21/2026 9:10:11 AM PDT by suijuris
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To: Miami Rebel

Vivek is a con man, and wholesale POS.. its a shame so many OH republican primary voters refused to heed the glaring warnings and red flags about this fraud, and swallowed the BS he was feeding them.

Whether he wins or loses the Governorship, really doesn’t matter, Ohio and Ohioans are going to lose no matter who becomes their next governor.

Sadly this train wreck was completely self inflicted, and this turd being at the top of the ticket will almost certainly cost the GOP at the very least, some winnable purple federal districts in the house, and wouldn’t be surprised if Dems gain in the state house and state senate due to this completely avoidable fiasco.

Hopefully this train wreck won’t be so bad it contributes to losing the US Senate seat too...

What an absolute fustercluck, entire OHIO GOP basically pulled a Barney Fife and shot themselves in the foot.


42 posted on 10/21/2026 9:12:30 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: suijuris

And sadly, Vivek is so bad, that there is a good chance she’ll wind up the Governor.

GOP Primary voters in Ohio absolute screwed the entire state, because no matter who wins up winning.. one thing for sure that will be the result of this.. Ohio and Ohioans lose.


43 posted on 10/21/2026 9:13:50 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Miami Rebel

News articles from the internet report that of the Ohio ballots returned in the first week of early in-person voting (up to about October 15, 2026), 94k were registered Democrats, 67k were independents, and 64k were registered Republicans. So the Republicans are behind and need to catch up on election day. https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/10/15/ohio-early-vote-way-up-compared-to-2022-but-absentee-ballot-requests-are-down/


44 posted on 10/21/2026 9:14:13 AM PDT by convoter2016 ( )
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To: Trumpisourlastchance

Put on your big boy pants. You’re playing right into the left’s hysteria.

The ad did not attack a sexual abuse victim.

I did not even know LockdownActon claimed she was a sexual abuse victim until the left started crying about the ad.

(Aren’t all women sexual abuse victims now anyway?)


45 posted on 10/21/2026 9:14:44 AM PDT by Reddy (BO stinks)
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To: bray

Widespread legal drug use and gambling are part of the ongoing rot of our society. To take an example, I support the mission of the Daily Wire, though I only regularly listen to Matt Walsh and Andrew Klavan. It hurts my heart seeing a conservative organization pimping, and pimping hard, for Kalshi, which is an advertiser.

Early on, that is during the 2024 campaign, Ben Shapiro was pushing the notion that tracking and reporting on the betting markets is meaningful because it represents people willing to put their money where their opinions are. Bull crap. The betting markets represent a bunch of randos who have no greater insight that your average member on this forum, and probably less in many cases. Plus there’s the issue of interested actors dumping money in to affect the odds and thereby generate headlines


46 posted on 10/21/2026 9:16:10 AM PDT by j.havenfarm (25 years on Free Republic, 12/10/25! More than 12,750 replies and still not shutting up!)
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To: bray

Trying to compare Trump in 16 to Vivek is 2026 is beyond stupid.

Vivek isn’t fit to kiss Trump’s behind.

No matter who wins thing the only thing for certain is OH and Ohioans lose.

Absolutely idiotic self inflected wound...

GOP primary voters, just absolute screwed over their state.


47 posted on 10/21/2026 9:16:42 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Miami Rebel

Geeze, Thelma and Louise, is Ohio actually going to elect a communist homo socialist loving Dimocrat as governor????????? Good grief, they may even vote in a Dim senator!!! Is Ohio turning blue??? Say it ain’t so!!


48 posted on 10/21/2026 9:17:28 AM PDT by RetiredArmy (The Bible speaks truth! Don't believe it, you do so at your own peril. You'd better be right!!)
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To: fastrock

The state investigated and removed Amy and her brother from the mother’s custody based on the abuse.

Vivek knew this. Video surfaced today of him saying “She has no vision other than to complain about what someone did to her”.

He’s a creep and he’s finished. Will probably cost the Ohio Senate seat and may House seats, too.


49 posted on 10/21/2026 9:17:57 AM PDT by Trumpisourlastchance
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To: MomentsofSanity

“More voters learn about her past see her being victimized all over again by the same people who did so for her entire life..”

Who are you?

Sound like you just stepped over from DuhU. Same talking points.


50 posted on 10/21/2026 9:18:40 AM PDT by Reddy (BO stinks)
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To: HamiltonJay

Betting pols are a joke is the point. Nobody knows what the turnout will be which is all that matters.


51 posted on 10/21/2026 9:18:40 AM PDT by bray (Thank God for Israel)
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To: Miami Rebel

Regardless of who wins Ohio loses because they’re both horrible candidates and people


52 posted on 10/21/2026 9:19:34 AM PDT by mrmeyer (You can't conquer a free man; the most you can do is kill him. Robert Heinlein)
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To: Tench_Coxe

Or as opposed to voting Libertarian or not voting at all.


53 posted on 10/21/2026 9:20:59 AM PDT by GrootheWanderer
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To: HamiltonJay

“one thing for sure that will be the result of this.. Ohio and Ohioans lose.”

That’s true, but with Acton in office it will be worse... she has already proven that she does not believe in the rights of citizens according to the 1st amendment, and will pursue the left’s hatred of self defense by undermining the 2nd amendment the best she can while in office. Not to mention making Ohio a sanctuary state and raising taxes to give illegals free housing, food and education.


54 posted on 10/21/2026 9:22:51 AM PDT by Reddy (BO stinks)
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To: convoter2016

Republicans are WAY behind 2024.. doesn’t mean they will lose... but there is no way the GOP is going to have 37% more early voting votes in the box the Democrats this cycle.

Doesn’t mean the Dems will win, but anyone telling you that the data so far isn’t far better for Dems than it was in 2024 is LYING to you.

As of today, Dems have about a 50k ballot advantage over the GOP, but more interesting the unaffiliated early voting is still way down as a percentage of the votes. 2024 this was about 2 times the amount of the GOP votes, today its only about 5% more...

Again this doesn’t mean dems will win, but anyone looking that the early vote at present and telling you dems don’t look way better so far this cycle that last, is just LYING TO YOU.

https://data.ohiosos.gov/portal/election-dashboards/absentee


55 posted on 10/21/2026 9:23:04 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: convoter2016
News articles from the internet

Consider the source. The Capital Journal cannot be trusted.

56 posted on 10/21/2026 9:23:04 AM PDT by Kleon
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To: mrmeyer

That’s true, but with Acton in office it will be worse... she has already proven that she does not believe in the rights of citizens according to the 1st amendment, and will pursue the left’s hatred of self defense by undermining the 2nd amendment the best she can while in office. Not to mention making Ohio a sanctuary state and raising taxes to give illegals free housing, food and education.


57 posted on 10/21/2026 9:23:18 AM PDT by Reddy (BO stinks)
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To: Miami Rebel

Yeah, not buying that that ad is backfiring. Its her own mother saying her backstory is a lie and that she’s an untrustworthy liar.

That’s damning.


58 posted on 10/21/2026 9:39:29 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: Miami Rebel

Ramascammy is such a piece of sh*t. Trump really screwed up backing this Democrat DEI grifter and pharma fraudster. Amy Acton is a straight up commie, and she will likely win.


59 posted on 10/21/2026 9:39:56 AM PDT by montag813
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To: Reddy

Have any comments around the substance of what is being said? Anything at all?

Who am I? Someone with the capability of rational thought. You should try it some time. As a father of daughters I find this unbelievably disgusting for them to do. And I am in no way alone. You guys need to learn how to argue a counter point instead of just constantly attacking people. I won’t stop saying my opinion so try another tactic.


60 posted on 10/21/2026 9:41:02 AM PDT by MomentsofSanity
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