Posted on 10/14/2026 6:07:59 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
September brought little relief to the accelerating cost of living, as consumer prices increased again and kept the inflation rate well above the Federal Reserve’s goal.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the 12-month rate at 3.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected respective gains of 0.6% and 3.6%.
Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI rose 0.3% for the month and was up 2.6% on an annual basis, compared to respective estimates for 0.2% and 2.5%.
The annual rate for headline inflation was 3.4% in August while the core rate was 2.4%. Surging energy costs were again the primary culprit in the inflation picture. The energy index jumped 5.2% as tensions continued between the U.S. and Iran in a war launched in late February that shows no signs of ending anytime soon.
Gasoline prices soared 9.1%, accounting for about half the gain in headline CPI, according to the BLS. Over the past year, gas has posted a 34.2% gain while fuel oil has roared higher by 74.2%. Food prices were flat on the month and up 2.5% from a year ago. However, shelter prices increased 0.4% and used car and truck prices jumped 0.7%.
Stock market futures turned negative following the release while bond yields were sharply higher. Futures traders also raised the odds of a rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee next meets on Oct. 27-28 to about 44%. This is the final CPI reading that FOMC officials will get before that meeting. The BLS on Thursday will release the September reading on the producer price index, a measure of wholesale costs.
Inflation as measured by CPI has surpassed the Fed’s 2% benchmark since March 2021. The gauge had been trending lower at the start of 2026, but then spiked following the strikes the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran. Over the past few months, the year-over-year trend has moderated but still has held well above target. Fed officials responded in September by approving their first interest rate hike in more than three years, a quarter percentage point move that took the benchmark funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%. Markets expect the Fed to skip an October increase but to hike again in December.
The type of supply shocks that have driven the energy surge generally are considered temporary, and policymakers often will look through them when considering where to set rates. However, Fed officials fear that the longer the war drags on the higher the likelihood that the spike will make its way through the broader economy and become embedded in consumer and business expectations. In recent days, a number of key policymakers have expressed the belief that the Fed doesn’t need to rush to implement another hike. However, most say they expect another increase this year. Market pricing implies the Fed could hike at least twice more in 2027.
Fed officials follow the CPI and a host of other metrics but use the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index as their primary forecast and policymaking metric. The PCE numbers for September won’t be released until later this month.
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I have to wonder about the rise in gas prices; not so much that that they rose, but but why they seem to be reported so much differently (higher) in some states than others. Is there that much difference in state taxes on gas?
11+ Trillion Un-Beautiful Debt Cult, signed by Trump
40+ Trillion US Manipulated Global Government Debt.
Whoredom in the White House
Whoredom abomination in the Treasury.
Romans Chapter 1. 📖
Local/state gas taxes play a big part - but equally big is the cost of distribution. Both basically chip in ~15% variance in pump price, so sure - high gas tax state + a location relatively far from refineries? 30% difference or more.
The cult of Trump does not see Trump is a big spender like all the rest have been.....41 trillion in debt...
We, in AZ have some of the lowest state gas taxes, but some of the priciest gas.
The reason: we have to buy most of the gas from California, so we end up paying for Newscum regulations!
Andy Biggs promises to build pipeline from Texas to solve this problem.
Vote Biggs.
We already get fuel from Texas through the SFPP (the current exit point I believe is in Miranda). The Western Gateway Pipeline has already been approved which will also run through the SFPP.
Yep. You are not wrong.
Gas prices topped out here in the Treasure valley at $5.099 within the last couple of weeks, but have dropped dramatically since then. We’re now down to about $4.799, so a thirty cent drop in a short period of time. It will be interesting to see what happens between now and the election.
Average about $6 here in San Diego. $8 for diesel. I’m not driving the truck much these days. Went to start it up the other day after no driving for a month and the batteries were dead.
And 2 of the primary drivers of this inflation are self inflicted. The Iran war and tariffs. Trump and the GOP will likely be held accountable next month.
Like George Washington, Donald Trump is the indispensable man.
The Trump administration’s expanded anti-fraud campaign has uncovered approximately $230 billion in suspected fraudulent activity across federal programs.
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