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Posted on 09/25/2026 8:18:16 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as recent selling pressure intensified following hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and stronger-than-expected economic data.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up more than 4 basis points to 5.209% after reaching its highest rate since June 2007 on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond was higher by more than 5 basis points at 5.516% after surging to levels not seen since 2004. The 2-year note yield was up less than 1 basis point at 4.897%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Investors also weighed a global bond sell-off this week as Japanese government bonds, U.K. gilts, German bunds and other eurozone bonds hit fresh highs. Eurozone and Japanese government bond yields edged lower on Friday.
Treasury yields have been driven higher by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, who said in a speech on Wednesday that “further policy adjustments” can be expected to bring inflation down to target. Other factors included stubbornly high oil prices and the purchasing managers’ index report hitting its highest level in more than four years.
Traders were last pricing in a 66% chance of a rate hike in October, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“Ahead, we think that there are enough rate hike fears discounted at this juncture, and certainly enough to take care of perceived inflation risks,” ING’s regional head of research for the Americas Padhraic Garvey and senior rates strategist Benjamin Schroeder wrote in a note on Friday.
“But, government bond yields are primed to remain under pressure on a pure debt dynamic theory, which translates into pressure for some re-widening in swap spreads, and especially in the 10yr area.”
On Friday, durable goods orders in August came in relatively unchanged, while economists polled by Dow Jones had expected a decline of 0.3%. Additionally, consumer sentiment plummeted in September.
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30 year mortgage now at 7.56%
Since when did ROI become inflationary?
Using tips pricing, the implicit inflation rate is 2.4 for next ten years. Inflation not driver of treasury rate.
And the interest that Congress has in reducing spending remains steady at %0.00.
At least 2 or 3 more interest rate hikes coming from the Fed.
Mortgage rates were 12.5% when the missus and I were first looking at house...
What is causing the increase in rates?
Is it the deficit spending?
Inflation?
?
I will be the first to say that I was wrong. I thought that after the change in Federal Reserve Chair the interest rates would go down.
But there is a heck of a lot of difference between financing $144,000 at 8.5% and financing $450,000 at 8.5%, even when accounting for wage growth
Except for your pension funds and bond mutual funds that are loaded up with lots of bonds issued in 2020-21 and are yielding about 2%.
But there is a heck of a lot of difference between financing $144,000 at 8.5% and financing $450,000 at 8.5%, even when accounting for wage growth
“Considering like 70% of treasuries are owned by Americans, this is good news for a lot of people.”
MOST of those treasuries are paying at least .5% less than the current rate.
Those entities are getting hammered.
And most of them are “institutions”. Not individuals.
We paid 9.25% for our first mortgage.
“Considering like 70% of treasuries are owned by Americans, this is good news for a lot of people.”
Not to be pedantic, but you don’t understand how markets work. Whoever, whether domestic or foreign, owns ten-year treasuries is LOSING MONEY. The fact that rates are higher today doesn’t work backwards. If I bought at 4.14% and sold today at 5.2, I’d be taking a beating.
The boost in yields means that US investors have lost tens of billions on their Treasury holdings. Hardly good news.
I have been out of the news cycle today. What is the “stronger than expected economic news?”
I do not recall that the USA Press Corps became hysterical about interest rates during the Trump-Kamala Harris campaign in 2024.
Might be the price of WTI oil?
$91 a barrel the last time I looked.
Markets are directional.
When I started my career in finance, the 10-year traded at 13%.
Like your mortgage anecdote, my experience is completely irrelevant today. All adjustable-rate debt is much more expensive today than it was a year or five years ago. That has a negative effect on both consumers and corporations.
Example: I own the Western Alliance 4.25% Preferred. If it’s not repaid by the company on September 30, the coupon will be reset at the 5-year yield plus 345.2 basis points, or 8.47%. That’ll be a heck of a lot more expensive to the bank.
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