Posted on 05/31/2026 9:20:57 AM PDT by MtnClimber
If the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is a game of chicken, it sounds as though the Iranians will either swerve first – or accelerate. One way or the other, though, the blockade appears to have succeeded in bringing the regime to its crisis point. As discussions around a potential deal (really a pre-deal) continue, the IRGC has begun to demand an end to the US Navy's complete siege on Iranian ports.
That message has come from the top of the food chain today, including the Nepo Babytollah's supposed attaché: [X links at source article]
The "direct action" threat comes with a promise of "utter ruin" as a result:
Iranian officials have used the negotiations to project confidence that they retain significant military options should diplomacy fail. The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region,” threatening “crushing blows” and “utter ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine.”
The warnings come after a war that saw Iran target US bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while effectively shutting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global energy shock.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “feature many more surprises,” while Iran’s military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said the armed forces had used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “at the highest level.”
Experts say much of the rhetoric is intended to deter further attacks. But they also warn that Tehran retains significant escalation options should diplomacy collapse.
"Experts say" a lot of things, but this is probably correct. The Iranian regime has not exhibited any restraint in its missile and drone attacks in this conflict or in others. They have aimed at practically every Gulf state, including relatively friendly countries such as Qatar and Oman, targeting their energy production infrastructure. The IRGC has sent volleys of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and other places in Israel. At the same time, however, the US and Israel destroyed their military-industrial infrastructure on multiple levels. If the Iranians had more gas in the tank for deterrent strategies and tactics, the IRGC would have used them already.
That's not to say that the Iranian regime can't inflict damage. They still have drones and missiles in their inventories, but they lack the industrial capacity to replace them now. Their blue-water navy is gone, and the US is taking out their littoral navy when the IRGC sends those boats into the Strait of Hormuz to harass shipping. This threat isn't exacty empty, but it's entirely insufficient to deter hostilities if the IRGC won't make a deal. To extend the "chicken" analogy," they're pitting a Peugeot against a Peterbilt. In that kind of matchup, it doesn't matter whether Iran accelerates or not – they're going to lose if they push it to a collision.
Vahidi wants to use these threats to force the US into more concessions. It's the Tehran Two-Step, related closely to the Hamas Hokey Pokey, both of which are based on the concept of the hudna. The dance goes like this: Take one step toward your negotiating partner, and when he takes a step toward you, take two steps back and wait for him to come to you. It only works, though, when your partner wants to dance with you and thinks the dance is good enough. That has been the case with the West when it comes to the Iranian regime for the past 47 years.
Is it good enough for Donald Trump, though? That has been the question since the ceasefire, and both his critics and supporters wonder about it. Trump warned in a Truth Social statement this morning that he won't sign a deal without verifiable compliance by Iran on both the Strait and ending nuclear weapons development. His decision will come soon, Trump declared, but he's not going to let Iran off the hook:
Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The part about no money being exchanged is significant, Axios' Barak Ravid notes:
The MOU states that Iran will agree to negotiate on its nuclear program, but does not include specific concessions. ...
- U.S. officials say they have verbal commitments from the Iranians on the nuclear material, but that what matters is what is agreed when the sides get in the room for the formal negotiations.
- Trump claimed "no money will be exchanged, until further notice," referring to Iran's frozen funds in accounts around the world.
Even if Trump accepts this MOU, it may not end the game of chicken. The IRGC violated the current ceasefire within 48 hours by threatening traffic through the Strait, which prompted the full blockade by the US Navy that remains in place today. The Iranians are still demanding control of the Strait, which both the ceasefire and the MOU rejected. The Iranians will do what Hamas and Hezbollah have done for decades – sign the agreement, claim it meant something else, then refuse to comply when it comes time to disarm or withdraw. That's exactly what is happening in Gaza and Lebanon at this very moment.
Maybe Trump will sign the MOU and let Iran violate the terms first as a justification for what comes next. Or perhaps he might just stick with the blockade and let the economic collapse take place over the next several weeks, either forcing the IRGC to surrender on Trump's terms or restart the war and give him the political opening at home and in the Gulf for full-scale strikes on what remains of Iran's energy and transportation infrastructure. The blockade is clearly working to force the arrival of a decision point, and maybe Trump will be inclined to let it ride.
They don’t have enough to share with Artesh. Every day the blockade is in effect the situation gets more dire for them, and once the foreign mercenaries are gone, Artesh is up to bat.
What we do on social media, etc matters, because if Artesh can be led to believe that we are NOT serious or that “Trump Always Chickens Out”, it will take more and more pain for them to see the writing on the wall. The leftists in the US, in their desire to hurt Trump, are actually hurting the Iranian people. If we spoke as one voice it would be harder for Artesh to be deceived by the IRGC.
The IRGC is never going to agree to Trump’s demands. 🙄
That depends on how clearly Artesh is able to see the IRGC can’t win.
Iran is much like the Deep State. The plan is always to outlast an administration. Our election schedule makes it so that nobody is willing to take on much-needed action that won’t be neatly tied up in a bow by the next election. If we’re ever gonna get out of that pattern, we as voters have to refuse to sell our birthright for a bowl of soup. We have to see the long-term needs and fight like Hell for them.
The IRGC/leftists are doing the same thing to us as we are doing to Iran. They are trying to get us to be enemies of each other - trying specifically to split up MAGA by getting some to prefer self-protection over the long-term needs of the country. A lot of the X accounts claiming to be MAGA people upset with Trump are actually influence ops by the IRGC. Polling consistently shows that MAGA supports getting this done.
If we want to do both - keep the House and Senate AND win this war - we have to buckle up and meet this battle head-on, refusing to abandon the mission or be demoralized by fake posters.
Titanium ball-bearings. As many as their rocket program could shove into Low-Earth orbit.
Threats are about all they have left.
Exactly. That is exactly what Trump is making clear. Which means that Artesh can clearly see that the only way for Iran to survive is for the IRGC to be eliminated. The IRGC is the only thing standing in the way of Iran being at peace and prosperous.
If you think we’re sick of this song & dance, think what those Artesh guys living off a potato/day and watching the economic future of their families get burned away by the IRGC are feeling. We suffer so little compared to them; it seems crazy to think that we would cry “uncle” before they would. The Iranian people who have watched tens of thousands of peaceful protesters killed are begging us not to give up. They are paying the heaviest price, yet our whining here at home is the biggest threat they face.
Show of hands, who else is getting kinda sick of this?
A lot of it is that the IRGC know they’ve got nothing to lose by fighting on. They know if the regime is overthrown they will be killed. And there’s nothing Trump could offer them that would make them stop fighting, because they know either way, they’re dead.
Is there an Iranian equivalent to Col. Von Stauffenberg out there that could be able to get enough internal support to attempt a coup?
We’re all getting sick of it, and that’s the point. When Artesh gets totally fed up with the IRGC fiddling while all of Iran burns (economically speaking), they will decide to end it by killing the IRGC that holds us all hostage.
And that’s the only way it ends well.
“UTTER RUIN TO WHOM?”
“UTTER RUIN TO WHOM?”
SOME HEADLINES JUST WRITE THEMSELVES....
They meant, “suffer”.
Yes. But Artesh has been spared and WILL BE spared along with the whole rest of the country if they turn their weapons on the IRGC. This is a murder/suicide. IRGC will die either way; the question is whether Artesh will let them take out the whole country of Iran with them.
I’m praying they make the right choice and save lives.
Agree. But the left (MSM included) always sides with evil so they will try to undermine anything that harms the IRGC because IRGC success harms Trump.
This is where you hope and pray that the same Mossad that used the beepers is skilled enough to get the necessary work done without detection. I’ve been very hard on the CIA, but this is the kind of setting in which their skills/abilities used against our enemies instead of against the American people can make a huge difference.
The biggest issue is the comms. I’m praying constantly that Artesh can do this, and that we can get weapons to the people so they also can support. The plan with the Immortal Guard (Iranian special forces under the Shah that had been exiled but have come in with weapons to do guerilla warfare and to train the people) was that when the military operations were done and the signal was given to the people to come out in force, US airpower would provide suppressive fire against the IRGC.
Blah, blah, blah...
CC
Iran says a lot of things, all bs.
That’s why we have to fight back. This is ours to lose. If we don’t do our part we can’t complain because the leftists were just so much more committed to destroying America than we are to preserving it.
X is a hellhole but I keep posting there because the demoralization by the left has to be confronted. X keeps silencing my posts cuz it thinks I’m a bot because I post about things that matter. But I have to keep on confronting the lies that are meant to turn us against each other and to get us to give up.
We have to stand together.
“The main premise of this adventure is that Iran poses an existential nuclear threat to the US.”
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OK. How is Iran an imminent, existential threat to the US, if their nuclear material is still buried underground? In other words, why was this war necessary now?
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