Posted on 05/31/2026 9:20:57 AM PDT by MtnClimber
If the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is a game of chicken, it sounds as though the Iranians will either swerve first – or accelerate. One way or the other, though, the blockade appears to have succeeded in bringing the regime to its crisis point. As discussions around a potential deal (really a pre-deal) continue, the IRGC has begun to demand an end to the US Navy's complete siege on Iranian ports.
That message has come from the top of the food chain today, including the Nepo Babytollah's supposed attaché: [X links at source article]
The "direct action" threat comes with a promise of "utter ruin" as a result:
Iranian officials have used the negotiations to project confidence that they retain significant military options should diplomacy fail. The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region,” threatening “crushing blows” and “utter ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine.”
The warnings come after a war that saw Iran target US bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while effectively shutting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global energy shock.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “feature many more surprises,” while Iran’s military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said the armed forces had used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “at the highest level.”
Experts say much of the rhetoric is intended to deter further attacks. But they also warn that Tehran retains significant escalation options should diplomacy collapse.
"Experts say" a lot of things, but this is probably correct. The Iranian regime has not exhibited any restraint in its missile and drone attacks in this conflict or in others. They have aimed at practically every Gulf state, including relatively friendly countries such as Qatar and Oman, targeting their energy production infrastructure. The IRGC has sent volleys of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and other places in Israel. At the same time, however, the US and Israel destroyed their military-industrial infrastructure on multiple levels. If the Iranians had more gas in the tank for deterrent strategies and tactics, the IRGC would have used them already.
That's not to say that the Iranian regime can't inflict damage. They still have drones and missiles in their inventories, but they lack the industrial capacity to replace them now. Their blue-water navy is gone, and the US is taking out their littoral navy when the IRGC sends those boats into the Strait of Hormuz to harass shipping. This threat isn't exacty empty, but it's entirely insufficient to deter hostilities if the IRGC won't make a deal. To extend the "chicken" analogy," they're pitting a Peugeot against a Peterbilt. In that kind of matchup, it doesn't matter whether Iran accelerates or not – they're going to lose if they push it to a collision.
Vahidi wants to use these threats to force the US into more concessions. It's the Tehran Two-Step, related closely to the Hamas Hokey Pokey, both of which are based on the concept of the hudna. The dance goes like this: Take one step toward your negotiating partner, and when he takes a step toward you, take two steps back and wait for him to come to you. It only works, though, when your partner wants to dance with you and thinks the dance is good enough. That has been the case with the West when it comes to the Iranian regime for the past 47 years.
Is it good enough for Donald Trump, though? That has been the question since the ceasefire, and both his critics and supporters wonder about it. Trump warned in a Truth Social statement this morning that he won't sign a deal without verifiable compliance by Iran on both the Strait and ending nuclear weapons development. His decision will come soon, Trump declared, but he's not going to let Iran off the hook:
Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The part about no money being exchanged is significant, Axios' Barak Ravid notes:
The MOU states that Iran will agree to negotiate on its nuclear program, but does not include specific concessions. ...
- U.S. officials say they have verbal commitments from the Iranians on the nuclear material, but that what matters is what is agreed when the sides get in the room for the formal negotiations.
- Trump claimed "no money will be exchanged, until further notice," referring to Iran's frozen funds in accounts around the world.
Even if Trump accepts this MOU, it may not end the game of chicken. The IRGC violated the current ceasefire within 48 hours by threatening traffic through the Strait, which prompted the full blockade by the US Navy that remains in place today. The Iranians are still demanding control of the Strait, which both the ceasefire and the MOU rejected. The Iranians will do what Hamas and Hezbollah have done for decades – sign the agreement, claim it meant something else, then refuse to comply when it comes time to disarm or withdraw. That's exactly what is happening in Gaza and Lebanon at this very moment.
Maybe Trump will sign the MOU and let Iran violate the terms first as a justification for what comes next. Or perhaps he might just stick with the blockade and let the economic collapse take place over the next several weeks, either forcing the IRGC to surrender on Trump's terms or restart the war and give him the political opening at home and in the Gulf for full-scale strikes on what remains of Iran's energy and transportation infrastructure. The blockade is clearly working to force the arrival of a decision point, and maybe Trump will be inclined to let it ride.
First, I think President Trump truly doesn't want more death and destruction if it can be avoided. To his immense credit, he's not going to make decisions based upon which way the political winds may be blowing. That's the difference between a patriot/leader and a finger in the air politician.
Second, 'killer instinct' has nothing to do with the American military. It has to do with some of the military leadership, the political class, and the anti-American domestic opposition who would have had Tyson quit in the first round and support his opponent's family for at least 5 years.
I think that’s the plan.
Once the mercenaries from Iraq, Afghanistan, & Pakistan that are currently doing “morality patrols” are no longer paid, they will leave. And that will leave the IRGC alone to deal with both the people and a starving Artesh (regular army).
As the blockade drains away the lifeblood of their economy, the Artesh guys will realize they can’t keep both their oaths - to the IRGC and to the country of Iran. The IRGC holds the country hostage. The only way to save ANYBODY is to eliminate the IRGC.
The Iranians weak point is food.
They simply don’t have enough to carry on without imports.
They can’t pay for imports. They might ask their Shiite friends in Iraq to pony up, but that’s not likely to be fruitful.
The IRGC can see the army gets fed, but the army people have relatives that would not get enough food.
No, we don’t have the ground forces to take over Iran, especially not with the foreign mercenaries there now. As frustrating as this slow-motion win is, it’s the only way to get a win. Trump has said from the start that the Iranians would have to take back their country. All this pain is to get Artesh to realize the only way to save the country is by eliminating the IRGC.
The main premise of this adventure is that Iran poses an existential nuclear threat to the US. If that isn’t enough justification for balls-to-the wall action I don’t know what is. “Warrant” from congress be damned.
The Israelis can provide the commandos.
The Ukrainians can provide thousands attack drones and drone operators in exchange for a mere promise of Trump’s goodwill and the billions of dollars that are likely to follow.
The IRGC Iranians can ask the Russians how deadly effective those Ukrainian drones and operators can be, if they don’t already know.
The tight-fisted Europeans loan Ukraine money. The generous US Congress gives money.
The problem is nobody really knows what’s going on in Iran especially we armchair opiners
It’s just that the optics of sitting on our hands while crazy people clinging to power or survival say nasty threatening things and lob rockets occasionally
What start as shock and awe has turned into something else
Has anyone seen the personals on I think their head defense guy or guards “leader”
He favors a baseball bat to use on protestors like a Croat psycho in that war
I don’t like mark levin but I find myself in agreement with him on this
Finish it
I saw a piece on Fox that showed how Iran was still getting money from oil by transferring Tanker To tanker in the open sea and going to the Chicoms, so it’s going to be a while.
The only way to insure Iran never has nukes is to get rid of the regime. Trump said from the very beginning that we would wipe them out militarily but then the Iranians would have to take their country back.
Interestingly enough, Trump also just recently talked about how their ARMY (Artesh) has been spared because they may be “moderates”. That’s code for “Artesh, step up and do the right thing. We can destroy the whole country but we don’t want to. The only way for you to save your country is to eliminate the IRGC”
Having the Strait closed to Iranian ports is literally suffocating Iran’s economy. They are dumping oil to try to keep their wells from being shut off and destroyed. This was an alternative to blowing up all the bridges & electrical infrastructure which would have harmed the Iranian people as a whole. But it was a sharp threat that got the whole world calling Trump a maniac. It was an attempt to tell Artesh that the whole nation of Iran is at stake here.
This is all necessary because we don’t have the ground troops to defeat an enemy this large, hidden amongst civilians, with deep underground hiding places. It’s like trying to get rid of bindweed that has roots 20’ underground. You can make it look like there’s nothing growing on top, but unless you get all the roots the whole place will be overrun again in no time. We hit their nuke facilities last year but already they’ve built it back. We’re not going to make that same mistake again.
Soon the IRGC will have no money to pay their mercenaries from Iraq, Afghanistan, & Pakistan that are arresting people and having them executed. They will leave, and then would be the prime time for Artesh to rise and get rid of the IRGC that holds the nation hostage.
The way we lose this is if we get impatient over gas prices and settle for chopping off a bit of the bindweed on the top and leave the roots. That is what the IRGC is using western media for. When you fill up your gas tank, think that the extra bit you’re paying now will keep your kids from being buried under a mushroom cloud. If they had cancer how much would you spend for their lives? $10 extra each time you fill up is a very small price, relatively speaking.
I saw that too, but it was only those tankers that had gotten out before the blockade. They are disguising them (changing identification numbers etc.). Apparently they are going far south and hooking up with ships sailing under a different flag, and eventually it winds up in China. This should be just one more example of how the current Iranian regime cannot be trusted - no matter what they ‘agree’ to.
Right now the army (Artesh) is being fed a potato/day, according to them.
“haven’t we heard this empty bluster before?”
Israel has submarines, warplanes and missiles. Iranian oil won’t be getting out by tanker if Israeli doesn’t want it to.
They’re scattered like cockroaches so they need targeted locally.
Is it worth an extra $10/fill-up for as long as it takes Artesh to figure out the whole country will bleed dry unless they oust the IRGC?
Because that’s the only way we’re gonna win this. Are you willing to pay that price? Or are you only willing to spill other people’s blood?
How many are in the Iranian Army, and how many in the IRGC?
Same here, tired of giving the lefties an inch to trash Trump when we could have ended this a month or more ago. All the while we are the ones paying the price for it.
I can’t remember the numbers but Artesh has a lot more. And they have all their leadership because we’ve deliberately left them alone.
One reason for this delay instead of strikes is that when there’s active war the factions unite against the common enemy. Trump is making each of them an enemy of the other, by letting them all know their blood is slowly but surely draining out and the only thing they can do to stop it is to surrender.
“we don’t have the ground troops to defeat an enemy this large, hidden amongst civilians, with deep underground hiding places.”
They might find themselves buried. To prevent starvation, they would have to have lots of food on hand. Perhaps they would like to share some with hungry soldiers to avoid premature burial by Iranian army explosives.
No, we couldn’t have ended it. Read my other comments in the thread. This is the only way we can win. And if we don’t stiffen our spines we won’t win. Trump doesn’t care if he’s trashed. He’s already been through Hell and back. What he cares about is getting the job done.
We can keep defending Trump but he would never forgive us if we gave up the chance to secure the future just for the sake of silencing the lefties. He who laughs last laughs best.
So what’s the timeline for this? November is the mid terms. 5 months away and early voting begins before that. If this isn’t resolved by July or August and even if it is, it will probably have had a negative effect on MAGA and retaining the House and Senate.
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