Posted on 04/13/2026 5:43:58 AM PDT by daniel1212
Iran does not need to secure the Strait of Hormuz. It only needs to make sure that no one else can, either.
Despite the sorry condition of its naval forces,.. Iran still maintains selective control of the Strait of Hormuz—resulting in 80 to 90 percent of the traffic being halted. How? Not through naval dominance, but rather through asymmetric disruption, which Iran uses to make travel through the Strait too dangerous to risk.
Iran Doesn’t Need to Close the Strait to Cut Off Shipping
Iran’s strategy is not to implement a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it raises the risks and costs of passage, encouraging most to simply stay away. Through a combination of cheap weapons, geography, and cultivated uncertainty, Iran is able to achieve sufficient disruption to functionally close the strait.
Iran is aided in its efforts by the structure of the shipping business. Most seaborne commerce—particularly in hydrocarbons...—takes place on enormous tankers, which often cost upwards of $100 million, not including the value of their cargo...and have virtually no defenses against missile and drone attacks. Given the vast cost involved in losing a tanker, no party involved is willing to take the risk of running the blockade. Indeed, seaborne insurance companies will often charge extremely high insurance rates—or refuse insurance altogether...
How Iran Can Punch Above Its Weight in the Persian Gulf
Naval Mines: One of the primary asymmetric tools.. is naval mines. Iran is thought to possess an inventory of 3,000 to 4,000 mines, including contact, acoustic, and influence-triggered types. These mines are hard to detect and harder to clear,..
Submarines: Iran also deploys midget submarines, like the Ghadir class,.. Iran has a vast arsenal of land-based anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs)..
Drones: Shahed-type drones are launched from deeper inland
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
blockading is a safer, cheaper, and nearly blood-free strategy that is just as effective as “taking” Kharg Island ... any strategy Iran might have to slaughter thousands of USA soldiers via mass suicide waves is totally neutralized in a battle to “take” Kharg Island, and can be maintained indefinitely ...
The only control Iran exerts is from the land that borders the strait, and it has a long stretch of that. And being narrow, that is not something to minimize.
Drop leaflets warning civilians to evacuate within 72 hours, and begin with waves of B-52, carpet bombing the entire stretch, moving gradually inward.
If we have to, of course.
So we only destroyed one in ten of their ships?
Also these folks recognize that Israel is an ally, and neither antisemitism nor Zionism come into play. Our people plan for the long game and the short game. And the long game is US success.
FWIW, China can send tankers to the US, Guyana, and Venezuela. Shift shipping and logistics, not deny.
It's far more important to deny Iran.
And, your overt antisemitism is not getting this about right.
Iran buys so much from IRan because of a long-running sweetheart deal.
China can get all the crude it needs from the US, Venezuela, and Guyana, for example.
I don’t think the author and many others realizes to decimate means to reduce by 10%. Annihilate would probably be more accurate with approximately 90% of Iranian naval assets destroyed.
Correct.
Well remember, the military planners war gaming this war and blockade of the strait are the same mental midgets that war gamed the shock and awe attack that was supposed to cause a popular uprising among the people of Iran within a week. Ruinous actions like these happen because of moral hazard-basically, as consequences of risky actions are removed, reckless actions increase. The only people getting fired in this administrations are those that are insufficiently sycophantic. The constant fawning and ego stroking reminds me of those generals surrounding Kim Jong Un furiously scribbling on their notepads whenever he talks. It’s a difference of degree not kind.
No more Temu? Have another drink.
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Trump is finally doing the obvious thing. Shut off Iran’s oil exports.
What if China decides to force the strait? Trump will just offer to either sell them US oil, or double the tariffs *again*. And if that doesn’t do the trick, just blow up the loading pumps.
If Iran can’t ship oil, and every other gulf country can, this changes the situation completely. Can they start shooting again? Sure. But closing off their oil exports puts his hand around their throats.
Take Kharg intact. Blowing up Kharg is like cutting off a bulls balls and seizing Kharg is like tying a noose around the bulls balls.
Kharg is NOT Iwo Jima. We have a lot more tech and overmatch at our disposal now. Don't you remember over thirty years ago, Iraqis surrendering to UAVs in Desert Storm?
500 Marines can take Kharg in 1 hour.
Taking Kharg intact is checkmate.
China is NOT another superpower, but they could have kept Iran out of trouble.
How did you arrive at the 15 tankers figure?
These people think we couldn’t take Kharg intact quickly are on drugs. Ask yourself this: if the US military cant take that island then it’s over. Pack and go home.
You’re right, but they would also need to take Bandar al Abbas, the other port nearer the strait. Which they could do. My concern is it just makes them an easy target for drone attacks. Whereas blowing the loading pumps at both locations, and maybe the adjacent storage tanks, shuts off the spigot, but does no permanent damage that can’t be fixed once the conflict is over. Meanwhile it keeps our marines out of range of their drones and missiles. Your thoughts?
Oh boy… that’s what the neocons at the RAND corporation think tank believe: there’s a single superpower in the world and then there’s everybody else.
Never mind that China has four times the labour pool and a unified patriotic population that isn’t nearly as fractured as the US. It has a bigger economy. It has supply chains and manufacturing that dwarf the US, and it has plenty of nuclear weapons and fifth generation delivery systems. It would be very unwise to take on China or Iran, but of course we’re gonna try.
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