Trump at a crossroads as US weighs tough options in Iran

BBC ^ | March 22 | Anthony Zurcher, North America Correspondent

[RandFan]

Three weeks after the joint US-Israeli war against Iran began, the conflict has reached a fuzzy state of mixed messages and uncertainty, with Donald Trump's public comments often seemingly contradicted by realities on the ground.

The war is "very complete, pretty much", Trump has said, but new American ground forces – including a Marine expeditionary unit - are moving into the region. It is "winding down", but US and Israeli bombing and missile strikes on Iranian targets continue unabated.

Opening the Strait of Hormuz, the geographic choke point through which 20% of the world's oil export travels, is a "simple military manoeuvre", but for now only Iranian-approved ships are transiting the waters. The Iranian military is "gone", but drones and missiles are still striking targets in the region and targets have extended as far as the joint US-UK base in Diego Garcia.

In a Saturday evening post on Truth Social, Trump threatened an escalation, warning that if Iran didn't "fully open, without threat" Hormuz in 48 hours, the US military would begin targeting Iranian power plants, "starting with the biggest".

The day before, however, he had used his social media website to provide a numbered list of American military objectives for the Iran war, which he said the US was "getting really close" to fulfilling.

The items, comprising his most detailed statement on the subject since the war began, included degrading or destroying Iran's military, its defence infrastructure and its nuclear weapons programme, as well as protecting American allies in the region.

Not included was the goal of securing the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump said should be the responsibility of other nations that are more dependent on oil exports from the Gulf

[Uncle Miltie]

The only bit left is the hundreds of pounds of 60%+ enriched uranium.

Will we secure it, or will the next mullah take it to a nuke on London or Paris or New York?

Anyone have a useful idea of how to accomplish that?

I don’t.

[Uncle Miltie]

I pray for Victory!

Then Peace.

[trebb]

I pray for peace too - but that will require smashing Iran forces into extinction. The fact that they ‘surprised the world with their long range missiles (which they supposedly didn’t have), the only mixed signals are among the European countries now suffering the pucker effect because they know they have been withing reach for some time without realizing it - now they have to decide whether to step up to the plate and come out on the positive side of history.

[Ultra Sonic 007]

At its heart, Islam is at war with all infidels.

I don't disagree.

I just do not think that characterizing our strikes on Iran as a war against Islam is accurate.

[nathanbedford]

… the money we’re spending in the ukraine…

We are spending no money in Ukraine; to the contrary, we profit from the war in Ukraine by selling arms. This was arranged by a president who claimed, as he inserted himself into negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, that he was only interested in saving lives. Thereafter, he forced Ukraine to sign a deal that potentially made America even more money in the postwar extraction of minerals.

Meanwhile, he spends an absolute fortune in Iran (a war which I support) and lifts sanctions from Russia, thus enriching Russia by billions of dollars with which to take lives in Ukraine.

Money is not the problem in Iran, our dilemma is that we have come to the limits of airpower and find ourselves worse than short of winning the war. The president is indeed confronted with the hardest decision of his administration.

[MagillaX]

Does anyone ever play chess.

Trump has taken out most of Irans pieces. Now he has the gulf states and maybe Turkey and Pakistan as well sitting in an attack position.

He is advancing other friendly nation pieces removing Irans movement options.

He corners Iran into a dilemma with the 48 hrs warning. Iran can attack but it may expose themselves into losing even more pieces as other gulf nations advance and Trump puts them in darkness.

Or they can sit idle as Trump advances more assets forward.

Trump has said his goal is not to take the king but rather the queen, rook, bishop, and castle.

In chess that is not a classic win, but then life is not a game.

[RoosterRedux]

What are we at war with in Iran?

[Uncle Miltie]

Grok:

The apocalyptic vision of Iran’s ruling mullahs (clerics and Supreme Leader) is rooted in Twelver Shia eschatology—the dominant branch of Shia Islam in Iran—and centers on actively preparing for and hastening the return of the “Hidden Imam,” or Mahdi (the 12th Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi). He has been in divine occultation (ghaybah) since the 9th century and is expected to reappear at the end of times amid catastrophic global chaos, widespread violence, wars, injustice, and moral corruption to defeat infidels and oppressors (“stained with infidels’ blood”), eradicate evil, and establish a universal Shia Islamic kingdom of justice.  

This is not passive waiting (as in traditional “quietist” Shia theology) but an activist doctrine, radicalized by the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini framed Iran as the “Vanguard of the Mahdi,” with the revolution and Islamic Republic as a divine interim government (via his innovation of Velayat-e Faqih, or Guardianship of the Jurist) until the Mahdi’s arrival. The regime’s clerics, IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), and hardliners see their role as hastening these end-times conditions through jihad, export of revolution, and confrontation—making conflict not a side effect of policy but its theological purpose.  

Core Drivers of “War Making”

• Chaos and fighting as prerequisites: Shia hadiths and regime interpretations hold that the Mahdi emerges only after global upheaval. Senior clerics explicitly tie this to action: Ayatollah Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri stated, “In Order for the Hidden Imam to Reappear We Must Engage in Widespread Fighting with the West.” Khamenei and IRGC leaders echo that Iran’s task is to prepare the ground via battles against the “Great Satan” (US) and “Little Satan” (Israel, called a “cancerous tumor” that “must be uprooted”). Destruction of Israel is often framed as a sine qua non (essential precondition) or catalyst, with hadiths cited claiming it precedes the Mahdi.  

• Iran and IRGC as the Mahdi’s vanguard army: Khomeini and successors (including Khamenei) positioned the regime, armed forces, and especially the IRGC/Quds Force as tools to fulfill prophecy. The IRGC indoctrinates with Mahdism (over 50% of training in some periods), arms proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Shia militias in Iraq/Syria/Yemen) as “Mahdi’s army,” and views operations—like intervening in Syria (against “Sufyani” tyrants per prophecies) or missile strikes—as removing obstacles to his return. Qassem Soleimani and others linked actions to direct contact or preparation for the Imam. 

• Hastening via specific acts: Under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (promoted by hardliners), this intensified—state funds rebuilt the Jamkaran Mosque (a Mahdi pilgrimage site), and he declared his government prepares for the Imam while claiming the US seeks to block it. Nuclear pursuit, ballistic missiles, and regional destabilization are seen as creating “apocalyptic opportunity” or global conflict. Khamenei integrates it into worldview stages: revolution → Islamic society → Mahdi’s era. 

This theology explains the regime’s pattern: relentless proxy wars, “Death to America/Israel” doctrine, rejection of lasting compromise (e.g., viewing diplomacy as delay of divine plan), and prioritization of ideology over prosperity or survival. As analysts note, “Preparing the ground for the reappearance of the Hidden Imam is the Islamic Republic’s raison d’etre.” Peace or normalization would undermine the perpetual revolutionary struggle needed for the apocalypse; confrontation fulfills it.

[iontheball]

We’re not at war with Islam.
__________________________
I must assume you are being sarcastic?

[RoosterRedux]

As an aside, I don’t blame Muslims for Islam. Islam is an incredibly dangerous Satanic cult, and Muslims are the prime victims of that cult. I don’t blame Muslims anymore than I blame the poor people who fell under the influence of Jim Jones.

[nagant]

Trump’s Truth Social post also made no call for Iranian regime change.
~~~~~

Hey BBC, What do you call killing Iran’s top 25 leaders just to open this war .....then killing the Iatola’s successor ...then killing his successor?

[Ultra Sonic 007]

Only in the sense that I believe anyone thinking we are is fooling themselves.

To claim we are at war with Islam while simultaneously being in an alliance with Saudi Arabia is contradictory.

[ansel12]

You aren’t an American and don’t live here, yet your focus in life is manipulating voters here at FR.

You don’t even bother to vote in your home country but you are constantly pushing freerepublic to turn against President Trump.

[Samurai_Jack]

ukraine has no money of their own. We are spending our own tax dollars on arms to the ukraine. It’s a big money laundering operation. Cut them off and divert the proxy war from fighting over ukraine over to a proxy war in iran.

Yes it’s a dilemma, but I would never bet against these guys to do the right thing.

[nathanbedford]

I think you are reading yesterday's newspaper. We are selling arms to European nations who in turn give or loan the value of the arms to the Ukrainians.

In addition to turning the war into a profit center, Donald Trump repeatedly lied about the actual money given over time to Ukraine. And much of the money that was actually given to Ukraine was by loan or at inflated prices for old or obsolete arms.

There was a propaganda campaign waged by the president, unworthy of his office, to denigrate Ukraine and create the idea that it was corrupt and was wasting our money. Very little has actually been proven of all these allegations concerning Ukrainian corruption in the conduct of this war.

History will show that Ukraine has done wonders with very little and has done much to advance the security of the US, despite Donald Trump.

[RoosterRedux]

Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia has adopted a reform agenda that is moving away from a strict interpretation of Islam. So have most of the Gulf countries.

As for our historical alliance with Saudi Arabia, our relationship was based on a common interest that overrode religion. Oil.

[nathanbedford]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6O5wo__zjng

[MotorCityBuck]

“ That's all well and good but history teaches the need for feet on the ground.”

How many “feet’s” feet on the ground do we need Schwarzkopf?

[Alberta's Child]

"This is an existential war against Islam!"

[Alberta's Child]

Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia has adopted a reform agenda that is moving away from a strict interpretation of Islam. So have most of the Gulf countries.

Dude -- The U.S. has spent hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives installing and protecting governments across the Middle East where Islam is literally established as the official state religion.

If the U.S. had any interest in fighting radical Islam, we would have been on the same side as Saddam Hussein, Bashar al-Assad, and Muammar Gaddafi for decades.