Posted on 03/05/2026 3:04:01 PM PST by Libloather
Prediction market Kalshi has drawn outrage for refusing to pay out winnings on a $54 million trade related to the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Many bettors assumed they had won big on wagers that Khamenei would be “out as Supreme Leader” by Saturday after he was killed in joint US-Israeli air strikes over the weekend.
But Kalshi – an American prediction market that allows users to bet on politics, sports, foreign affairs and pop culture – announced it would not be paying out any winnings on those wagers, since its guidelines prohibit markets “directly tied to death.”
“Literally go f--- yourselves. This is RIDICULOUS,” one user tweeted, adding a photo that showed they placed a $72.90 bet that could’ve paid out $936 – but only got $18.72 from Kalshi.
Furious users quickly vowed to delete their accounts, accusing Kalshi of withholding fair-and-square gains and changing its rules at the last minute.
An Israeli-American business executive in New York had placed two bets totaling $3,460 that Khamenei would be “out” by March or April 1, and the Kalshi app showed he won payouts worth more than $63,000 – but then the trade was frozen.
“I was booking my trip to Courchevel,” he jokingly told the Washington Post, referring to the luxurious French Alps ski resort. “Then they changed the rules … and everybody got screwed.”
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
i hope they’re sued out of business ...
So the bookie welched.
Lol
Terms and conditions matter.
Then why did he allow them to be placed? Crook!
Kalshi is a regulated exchange
Any word from said regulators yet or is it too early.
Sounds like Kalshi was trying to “regulate” their losses.
Gambling is a criminal enterprise. Legal or not. Expect the outcomes one gets by dealing with criminals.
Kalashi has done them dirty! A morals clause, long after they have collected all those individual bets?
What branch of the government can be expected to go after them? I think the Better Business Bureau only advises.
Maybe Consumer Protection Service will lead the cause.
Does Kalashi really think they’ll get away with this?
The article says the bet was that he would be “out as Supreme Leader,” not that he would be killed. So happens he was out because he was killed but that’s not what the bet was about.
I’m not much of a gambler, 30 plus years of being an engineer, kind of beat that vice out of me.
However the bet was placed for the leaders “removal”.
He wasn’t removed, he was killed.
By the bookies rules, death didn’t count.
Read the T’s and C’s.
I lost all interest in gambling as soon as I got my first job selling on commission.
As P.T. Barnum said: “There’s a sucker born every minute...”
The article says the bet was that he would be “out as Supreme Leader,” not that he would be killed.
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