Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Real Rate Of Transgender Violence Is Much Worse Than The Media Wants To Admit
The Federalist ^ | 26 Feb, 2026 | John R. Lott Jr.

Posted on 02/26/2026 7:20:01 AM PST by MtnClimber

If we want serious solutions to mass public violence, we must first confront the facts honestly and debate them openly.

We’re repeatedly told that transgender-identifying individuals are not prone to commit gun violence. Major outlets — including the The New York Times, AP, CNN, and The Washington Post — publish articles arguing that transgender attacks are extremely rare and run headlines calling out conservative bias: “The right exploits Nashville shooting to escalate anti-trans rhetoric” and “Conservatives use Minneapolis shooting in anti-transgender campaigns.”

In the wake of the attacks in Canada and Pawtucket, Rhode Island, over the past couple of weeks, public debate has once again focused on transgender murderers. But the AP, CNN, ABC News, NBC News, MS Now, and the New York Times never mentioned the Rhode Island shooter identified as transgender. AP never mentioned the Canadian mass murderer was transgender. Other transgender-identifying people recently also posed serious threats even though they never got a chance to fire a shot. For example, Nicholas Roske, who now identifies as transgender, attempted to murder Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and took concrete steps toward carrying out the attack before authorities stopped him.

The media, however, continues to make basic statistical mistakes in claiming transgender-identifying people aren’t disproportionately violent. Transgender-identifying shooters commit mass public shootings and active shootings at rates far above their share of the population. In 2024, for example, transgender-identifying individuals accounted for a share of active shooter attacks that was at least 12 times larger than their share of the population.

Statistical Errors and Broad Definitions

Outlets ranging from PolitiFact to AP make a key error when they report only the transgender share of attacks without adjusting for the group’s small share of the overall population. That is an obvious statistical mistake. If a group makes up just 1 percent of the population but commits 10 percent of the attacks, no one would dismiss that disparity simply because the group accounts for “only” 10 percent of active shooting incidents.

Publications such as AP and Snopes also rely on overly broad definitions of shootings. They include incidents that differ fundamentally from the types of attacks committed by transgender-identifying individuals. For example, the Gun Violence Archive classifies as “mass shootings” many incidents that primarily involve gang fights over drug turf and, to a lesser extent, crimes such as robberies. While researchers may reasonably study those incidents, they differ sharply from cases in which an individual enters a public location with the explicit goal of murdering and injuring as many people as possible to generate publicity.

Mass public shooters repeatedly state their intent to kill more people in order to attract greater attention. Gang members and robbers, by contrast, pursue entirely different motives. By lumping together gang fights and robberies with targeted mass public shootings, analysts make attacks by transgender-identifying people appear rarer than they actually are. Researchers should compare transgender-identifying attackers to perpetrators of similar types of attacks. Few would argue that gang turf wars share the same motivations — or require the same solutions — as mass public shootings.

Accurate Analysis

The FBI’s active shooting reports focus on shootings that occur in public and explicitly exclude other underlying crimes such as gang disputes or robberies. Traditionally, the FBI has classified a “mass” killing as the murder of four or more people, and academic studies have adopted similar definitions. I use that same definition (with additional details available here) and analyze both mass public shootings — defined as active shootings involving four or more victims murdered — and active shootings more broadly.

From 2018 to 2023, estimates from the CDC, Gallup, and the census place the transgender share of the population at an average of about 0.73 percent. An August 2025 study by the Williams Institute estimates that about 1 percent of individuals age 13 and older identified as transgender in 2024 and 2025. Another Williams Institute survey reports a similar 1 percent figure for those age 13 and over in 2024–25.

Because transgender-identifying shooters tend to be younger than active shooters overall, age adjustments may be appropriate. If researchers adjust the Williams Institute’s 1 percent estimate to reflect the population under age 36 — the age range more comparable to active shooters — the relevant percentage falls to approximately 0.76 percent.

The transgender share of mass public shootings over the 2018 to 2025 period make up only 5 percent of attacks, but that is six times their share of the population. The Nashville Covenant School shooter in 2023 and the Club Q murderer who identified as nonbinary and used the pronouns they and them in 2022 were transgender-identifying individuals.

For the FBI’s active shooting cases, if one uses the Williams Institute estimate that transgender-identifying people are 1 percent of the population and ignore how young they are, their share of active shooting attacks in 2024 is 12 times their share of the population. However, despite Genesse Ivonne Moreno, the Lakewood Church shooter, going by male names, her case is debatable, but even excluding that case still leaves statistically significant results.

These results aren’t particularly surprising given that mass public shooters in particular are overwhelmingly suicidal and expect to die in the attacks. Given the high rates of suicide by transgender-identifying individuals, it isn’t too surprising that they may be overrepresented among mass public shooters. A 2019 report by the Williams Institute found that about 10–12 percent of transgender-identifying individuals had attempted suicide in the past year. Compare that with the general U.S. adult population rate of 0.6 percent reporting a suicide attempt. The suicide rate is thus at least 16 times greater for transgender-identifying people.

The media needs to stop dismissing these patterns and start reporting the data accurately and in proper context. It isn’t rocket science for journalists to understand that they must adjust for population share, use comparable definitions, and distinguish mass public shootings from other crimes rather than blur critical differences. If we want serious solutions to mass public violence, we must first confront the facts honestly and debate them openly.


TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: 2ndpeter2vvs6thru9; banglist; cprc; crimeratios; freasversusnormals; godlessreprobates; homosexualagenda; johnlott; leftism; lgbt; lgbtq; luke17; mediabias; romans1; trans; transgender; transmassshooting; transviolence; violenceagainsttrans
Message from Jim Robinson:

Dear FRiends,

We need your continuing support to keep FR funded. Your donations are our sole source of funding. No sugar daddies, no advertisers, no paid memberships, no commercial sales, no gimmicks, no tax subsidies. No spam, no pop-ups, no ad trackers.

If you enjoy using FR and agree it's a worthwhile endeavor, please consider making a contribution today:

Click here: to donate by Credit Card

Or here: to donate by PayPal

Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794

Thank you very much and God bless you,

Jim


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-34 next last

1 posted on 02/26/2026 7:20:01 AM PST by MtnClimber
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

What percentage of transgender individuals attempt suicide?


2 posted on 02/26/2026 7:20:10 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

Gee, trannies are 6 times more murderous than the average?

Who else is that violent?

Convictions:

Violent Crime: 2.6 Black / 1.0 White

Murder: 6.4 Black / 1.0 White

Robbery: 7.1 Black / 1.0 White

Aggravated Assault: 2.1 Black / 1.0 White

Careful, folks. Noticing be raciss! AND tranniephobic!


3 posted on 02/26/2026 7:24:07 AM PST by Uncle Miltie (Suspending my monthly donations until it becomes clear FR is run by and for conservatives.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber
It isn’t rocket science for journalists to understand that they must adjust for population share, use comparable definitions, and distinguish mass public shootings from other crimes rather than blur critical differences.

Well, overwhelmingly the issue is certainly ideological. The "do-gooders" who go into the field of journalism would not want to report any news which casts a bad light on certain groups which the "do-gooders" want to promote. That's the main point.

But, secondarily (and I say this as a former newspaper employee) journalists are not very smart. They don't really "know stuff" other than how to type fast and string sentences together (and they often aren't good at that either). To really report this sort of stuff accurately, they would need to understand statistical analysis. They would have to manipulate numbers (in an honest way), read complicated reports and actually crunch some data. There's no way any typical journalist could do this in a credible fashion.

The journalists say what they are told to say. They don't know how to do more than that.

4 posted on 02/26/2026 7:28:57 AM PST by ClearCase_guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

The sexually mutilated and sterilized become violent. No one could NOT see that coming.

Personally, I think it was the plan.


5 posted on 02/26/2026 7:32:06 AM PST by Empire_of_Liberty
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Empire_of_Liberty

Yes, I think chaos and rampant crime is part of the plan.


6 posted on 02/26/2026 7:45:56 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Uncle Miltie
Careful, folks. Noticing be raciss! AND tranniephobic!

It's okay to notice certain things at FR.

To notice certain other things, not so much.

7 posted on 02/26/2026 7:55:02 AM PST by Angelino97
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

Weeds need to be pulled and composted.


8 posted on 02/26/2026 8:06:45 AM PST by dasboot (Nuanced foreign relations is the germ of international misunderstanding. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

I see the number of 40% bandied about. No source.

I’m sure it is completely politically incorrect to discuss that number if Leftists are involved.


9 posted on 02/26/2026 8:09:55 AM PST by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: FreedomPoster

I have seen the number 50% reported, but no backup for the number.


10 posted on 02/26/2026 8:13:08 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

Accepting and then approving of perversion is giving license to “acting out.”

It promotes and encourages an “anything goes” mentality.

When the initial “satisfaction” of acting out in this manner dissipates, these perverts look for other ways to “act out” and choose violence usually against the most innocent and vulnerable.

There are no “happy endings” to perversion just as there is never a happy ending to rebelling against God and the ways of God.

In simplest terms, perverts are evildoers.


11 posted on 02/26/2026 8:22:15 AM PST by Biblebelter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

Why is this even a thing to consider? Transgender? Really? Who is going along with this nonsense? Can’t we stop the madness?


12 posted on 02/26/2026 8:50:47 AM PST by bk1000 (Banned from Breitbart)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

on another thread I was chastised for saying i’m okay with some people being sterilized.
These folks fall into that category. That DNA could die on the vine.
and add that released child molester, 1 thread up.
He can keep making babies.
Still not sorry.


13 posted on 02/26/2026 8:53:45 AM PST by ronniesgal ( so is it okay that I said that??? GO TRUMP GO!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Empire_of_Liberty
Personally, I think it was the plan.

Absolutely part of the plan. The big picture is to overwhelm the existing system with hundreds of little cuts until the system, the American system is incapable of a coherent response.
14 posted on 02/26/2026 9:07:16 AM PST by The Louiswu (USA FIRST...USA FOREVER)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: bk1000

(Transgender? Really? Who is going along with this nonsense? Can’t we stop the madness?)

I’ve met a few delusional people who support such 🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍🌈

Here’s a 😲 shocker:

They’re all Democrats or
support Democrats


15 posted on 02/26/2026 9:09:09 AM PST by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the Days of Lot; They did Eat, They Drank, They Bought, They Sold ......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

I think you could rate mature gender dysphoria (the correct title for “transgenderism”) a type of split personality with the biological gender screaming to get out from under its suppression maintained by the person’s acceptance and adoption of the gender dysphoria obsession. The DNA knows its purpose has been thwarted. I say “knows” in the sense that it’s purpose cannot be changed by all the physical mutilation, drugs and hormones it is assaulted with.


16 posted on 02/26/2026 9:24:48 AM PST by Wuli ( )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber; governsleastgovernsbest; Morgana; fwdude; Elsie; ViLaLuz; Libloather; ...
This picture was CONSTANTLY under attack at catbox - it would OFTEN be a broken image link

GEE WHAT A SURPRISE 😉😉😉

now it appears to be gone at the original link - there is one copy out there elsewhere - backup the picture whenever you can do so

Democrats are at
War with Reality,
Biology and
Almighty God



We ARE NOT the same



17 posted on 02/26/2026 9:36:07 AM PST by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the Days of Lot; They did Eat, They Drank, They Bought, They Sold ......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

At the beginning of this whole transgender hysteria, the story was all about how many transgenders harm or kill themselves. That aspect has disappeared from the radar. The Fake News Media must have recalibrated the radar settings so those blips don’t appear.


18 posted on 02/26/2026 10:10:05 AM PST by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Uncle Miltie

Any person that will voluntarily have body parts cut off, reproductive system re plumbed, pumped with drugs of the opposite, destroy your sex life is crazy.

Crazy people have a long history of violence. Thus the increased rate of violence in the Tranny community is to be expected.

The only innocents are those poor children that were pressured and brainwashed into this by parents, peers, teachers and doctors. All the latter are truly evil people.


19 posted on 02/26/2026 10:35:38 AM PST by cpdiii (cane cutter, deckhand, oilfield roughneck, drilling fluid tech, geologist, pilot, pharmacist, MAGA)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

They take drugs and hormones that are DESIGNED to make war with their bodies, to disrupt and halt natural processes.

That can’t end well, either physically or emotionally.


20 posted on 02/26/2026 11:25:55 AM PST by fwdude (Why is there a "far/radical right," but damned if they'll admit that there is a far/radical left)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-34 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson