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Does It Smell Like Victory?
Kunstler.com ^ | 20 Feb, 2026 | James Howard Kunstler

Posted on 02/24/2026 6:16:56 AM PST by MtnClimber

"We're either gonna get a deal or it's gonna be unfortunate for them.” — POTUS Donald Trump.

The message seems to be something like the USA isn’t messing around with all those strike forces in the waters around Iran. The Islamic Republic suddenly looks like Rock-and-Hard-Place-Land. Everybody and his uncle are trying to figure out the calculus in play, World War Three or a happy ending?

You’re seeing the most significant US military build-up over there in memory. Smells a little bit like the first Gulf War, 1991 — minus all those allies we roped in then. Mr. Trump (via Marco Rubio) has read Euroland out on this one. We are in a cold war with those birds, in case you haven’t noticed. The UK, France, Germany & Co.? They are as crazy as the ladies of The View and their millions of Cluster-B followers.

Euroland is yet in thrall to the climate nutters, the farm-and-industry-destroyers, the one-worlders, the Jihad-migrationists, the floundering banksters, and the Klaus Schwab wannabes. Euroland seeks to throttle free speech throughout Western Civ and meddle in everyone’s elections. Euroland keeps mouthing off about a war with Russia despite having no military mojo and going broke-a-- broke faster than you can say Götterdämmerung. Bottom line: the US is going solo on this one.

What is the objective? Ostensibly “a deal” over Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Like, just cut it out, will you, please? By the way, did you know that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2005 saying production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons was forbidden under Islam. But then deception is allowed in Islam under the doctrine of taqiyya, against the threat of attack from hostile forces,

I’m sure you remember Operation Midnight Hammer in June last year when we attacked and supposedly “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear research and development bunkers at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan? They got pretty banged-up, you may be sure, and nobody in Iran denied there was something nukey going on in those installations. Is there a will there to rebuild the whole darn infrastructure of uranium enrichment and so forth?

The mullahs are not saying, which means: of course, they intend to continue developing nuclear weapons — and even if that’s a stupid and futile gambit, given recent history, they still have factories churning out plain old long-range ballistic missiles and new drones by the thousands. Let’s face it: the mullahs are hardcore for Jihad and martyrdom. Since being elevated to Supreme Leader in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei has sought relentlessly to transform the traditional Islamic concept of Jihad and establish it as the central pillar of the regime’s ideology.

Are we doing Israel’s bidding there? (Cue: roar of affirmation.) But then, Israel has a point. Iran has been cuckoo for going on forty years. If Israel wasn’t a target of the mullahs’ eternal Shia wrath, there are their other enemies, the Sunni, on the west side of the Persian Gulf (and next door in Iraq). And consider, too, Iran’s obdurate sponsorship of Jihad, wherever possible, both within and outside the Ummah — including especially Western Civ, where low-grade Jihad has been going on for over a decade. . . mass murders, rape gangs, beheadings, trucks through the Christmas markets. . . .

Okay, if Euroland is out, what about the other big dogs, Russia and China. Will they just stand by and let the US have its wicked way with Iran? Russia sent a corvette-class naval vessel down to the Strait of Hormuz for a joint operation with Iran’s navy, but what does that mean? Probably not much more than occupational therapy. Besides, Mr. Trump is just now promising to bring Russia “out from the cold” of all those onerous economic sanctions. . . to begin the process of normalizing relations. You might doubt that Russia wants to blow that for Iran’s sake.

And, while it is somewhat out of the news due to the Epstein stink-bomb, and the deepness of mid-winter, there is still a war going on over in Ukraine. Which is to say, the Russians have their hands full in their own back-yard and might, perhaps, be hesitant about piling-on in Iran. And, let’s just suppose that the US objective is actually regime change in Iran. Would Russia be indisposed if the mullahs got kicked out of power? I doubt it. Russia has longstanding annoying issues with Islamic factions distributed throughout their adjoining former Soviet republics. Russia does not need Jihad. Russia might actually live more comfortably with Iran under a secular government, tilting a bit more western in temperament. Just sayin’. . . .

China has more urgent concerns with Iran. China gets around 13-percent of its oil imports from Iran, and it enjoys a three to four percent discount on it. Regime change or war that could damage Iran’s oil terminals would be bad news for China. But then, China is at a long geographic remove from Iran, and China is not used to conducting military adventures so far from home, so don’t expect much assistance there. China’s other option would be to start a kerfuffle over Taiwan to distract and divert the US. We’ll just have to see about that. Uncle Xi Jinping has been busy lately sacking the upper echelons of his own military leadership. Are they even ready for action? Plus, China’s economy is wobbly. Consider also: has the US given China assurances of continued oil imports from Iran if it steers clear of the situation there?

What are we operationally capable of over in Iran with all our warships, fighter jets, and other stuff? I don’t know. . . and neither do you. Looks impressive, but a couple of Sunburn-type missiles landing on the USS Abraham Lincoln could produce a profound instant attitude adjustment. Perhaps President Trump, WarSec Hegseth, and StateSec Rubio have more refined plans for disarming Iran and surgically removing the cuckoo-birds in charge. Our guys are certainly acting confident. But then in geopolitics confidence is best friends with hubris. And hubris generally precedes cluster----. The art of the deal is not for sissies.


TOPICS: Military/Veterans; Society
KEYWORDS: iran; mullahloversonfr; putsthecinkuntsler

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1 posted on 02/24/2026 6:16:56 AM PST by MtnClimber
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To: little jeremiah; Carriage Hill; GOPJ; Mama Shawna; notdownwidems; The FIGHTIN Illini; JZelle; ...

James Howard Kunstler ping


2 posted on 02/24/2026 6:17:22 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)
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To: MtnClimber
The Islamic Republic suddenly looks like Rock-and-Hard-Place-Land.

Technically they're between Iraq and a hard place, and Trump is not willing Kuwait much longer.

3 posted on 02/24/2026 6:18:30 AM PST by chajin ("There is no other name under heaven given among people by which we must be saved." Acts 4:12)
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To: chajin

I don’t think Trump or many in the US understand the satanic nature of islam. If they will die and become a Martyr for islam the threats from DC do not mean much.


4 posted on 02/24/2026 6:30:00 AM PST by mosaicwolf
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To: chajin

Just Saudi flotilla and Iran!


5 posted on 02/24/2026 6:33:12 AM PST by Uncle Miltie (Suspending my monthly donations until it becomes clear FR is run by and for conservatives.)
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To: mosaicwolf

Given the firepower Trump has amassed around Iran I think he fully gets they are suicidal. He is just giving them all the rope needed to ensure they break their neck on the fall.


6 posted on 02/24/2026 6:34:03 AM PST by Skwor
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To: chajin
--- "not willing Kuwait much longer."

:)

7 posted on 02/24/2026 6:35:38 AM PST by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: MtnClimber

hope he doesnt just half-ass it again.


8 posted on 02/24/2026 6:37:40 AM PST by wafflehouse ("there was a third possibility that we hadn't even counted upon" -Alice's Restaurant Massacree)
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Comment #9 Removed by Moderator

To: MtnClimber

If the Trump foreign policy agenda is no different than what we’d get from George W. Bush, John McCain, or Lindsey Graham ... then there’s no “victory” to be had here.


10 posted on 02/24/2026 6:44:48 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("There's somebody new and he sure ain't no rodeo man.")
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To: MtnClimber

It’s a little, “Ra, ra”, but may be correct. Europe is not on America’s side, but was on the side of America’s phony “President.”

I suppose that I am old enough to think, also, that Iran is a little bit of America’s problem in the region. We thought the Shah could bring Iran into the West and bring about a new enlightenment in the region. This was when Egypt was courting the Soviets.

We threw the Shah under the bus (he may have helped) and most of the “good’ people fled Iran - largely to the West.

Our problem is that not all of the thinking people left. Iran was left with one foot in the future, and one in the Sixth Century. Uranium centrifuges and ballistic missiles under the control of Islamic Mullahs waiting for the Hidden Imam.

It’s a mess that pallets of cash were never going to clear up.


11 posted on 02/24/2026 6:47:26 AM PST by Empire_of_Liberty
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To: MtnClimber
The mullahs are not going to negotiate, and even if they did, they are completely untrustworthy.

Trump is just negotiating (i.e., stalling) while everything is carefully put in place for an attack.

12 posted on 02/24/2026 6:48:52 AM PST by RoosterRedux (“Critical thinking is hard; that’s why most people just jump to conclusions.”—Jung (paraphrased))
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To: MtnClimber

Trump should launch the attack during his SOU address.

‘The US has now begun the process of freeing the Iranian people from our long standing arch enemy the Mullahs. Not the Joker (that’s China) our other arch enemy, the Penguin.’

Comic book references are always appropriate.


13 posted on 02/24/2026 6:56:36 AM PST by HYPOCRACY (Wake up, smell the cat food in your bank account. )
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To: HYPOCRACY

Wouldn’t tonight be an interesting attack time? All eyes would be on Trump along with all the detractors full of TDS. After the SOTU, make the announcement of a successful attack, heads would be splody everywhere.


14 posted on 02/24/2026 7:01:11 AM PST by healy61
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To: MtnClimber

Iranians have learned the hard way that they did have a free country under the shah after all. What they called repression was the shah holding back the ayatollahs and communists. They (with Carter’s help) chose the ayatollahs and have suffered the consequences.


15 posted on 02/24/2026 7:14:34 AM PST by marron
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To: marron

A classic case of, “You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.”


16 posted on 02/24/2026 7:19:40 AM PST by dfwgator ("I am Charlie Kirk!")
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time; chajin

Second that. Cleverly done, Chajin.


17 posted on 02/24/2026 7:23:20 AM PST by glennaro (2026: The year to crush the growing internal communism and jihadism in our free Republic)
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To: Liz

The Antichrist, the False Prophet AND Satan
will eventually lead the World’s Armies against
the nation of Israel and each other

They WILL BE SLAUGHTERED at Armageddon at
the Second Coming of The Lord Jesus Christ

Their bodies will be eaten by birds

Revelation 16, Revelation 19
Zechariah 12, Zechariah 14

Choose carefully, O World 🌍🌎🌏


Someday, the World 🌏🌎🌍
will UNite against Israel
and the Jews

Satan’s World leaders will be
Satan’s False Messiah Antichrist
and Satan’s “Religious” False Prophet

This battle comes at the end of the
7 Years of ‘Peace and Security’

The World’s armies will be
utterly and quickly destroyed
by the Second Coming of
The Lord Jesus Christ Himself

Their blood will flow for
200 miles and the birds will
eat the flesh of their bodies


Revelation 16:13-16
New King James Version

13 And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs coming out of the mouth of the Dragon, out of the mouth of the Beast, and out of the mouth of the False Prophet.

14 For they are spirits of demons, performing signs, which go out to the kings of the Earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that Great Day of God Almighty.

15 “Behold, I am coming as a Thief. Blessed is he who watches, and keeps his garments, lest he walk naked and they see his shame.”

16 And they gathered them together to the place called in Hebrew, Armageddon.

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%2016%3A13-16&version=NKJV


18 posted on 02/24/2026 7:23:39 AM PST by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the Days of Lot; They did Eat, They Drank, They Bought, They Sold ......)
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To: All

Posturing is pretty much all that can be done. We can’t squander weapons that require Chinese magnets, and so posturing is the procedure.

Our inventory has to last 10 years. Iran is not important enough to consume that inventory and then face invasion a year later.


19 posted on 02/24/2026 7:31:38 AM PST by Owen
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To: Alberta's Child

100%


20 posted on 02/24/2026 7:35:48 AM PST by Manuel OKelley
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