Posted on 02/17/2026 9:43:31 AM PST by Grzegorz 246
Ukrainian forces managed to liberate over 200 square kilometers of territory from the Russian troops last week, marking their most successful breakthrough in 2.5 years, AFP reports.
According to the outlet, these gains are confirmed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Between February 11 and 15, Ukrainian troops recaptured 201 square kilometers from Russian forces.
AFP reports that Ukrainian soldiers took advantage of disruptions in Russian access to Starlink terminals.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsukraine.rbc.ua ...
Your assumption is that Ukraine supposedly has no agency. If the US is calling all the shots, why can't Trump force Ukraine to capitulate? The fact that they honor commitments to the US regarding US weaponry is not surprising. They do strike targets they can reach with their own systems deep inside Russia. The weaponry we have supplied won't reach that far.
BTW, Trump just removed the restriction that F16s supplied to Ukraine must be flown by Ukrainian pilots.
And whatever we have supplied Ukraine is obviously not enough to force Russia to the bargaining table, even as the US strips Russia of its allies and puts a major crimp on its shadow fleet. Trump is playing a longer game balancing different US objectives.
REd6 “It does not matter if they begged to join NATO as you claim.
Cuba begged for Russian missiles too.”
That is the same analogy
1. Cuba was not pressured by the USSR to join the Soviet bloc - it chose to do so, or rather its government chose to do so
2. Similarly the Baltics, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria etc. were not pressured by NATO to join NATO - they chose to do so. The DIFFERENCE is that the people in those countries also overwhelmingly wanted to join NATO.
Why? Because Muscowy was and is a threat to the very existence of Latvia, Estonia, Finland etc.
Ukraine is not master of its own destiny.
Unless you ignore the Nuland tapes where we pick and choose who is in Ukraine’s government post 2014 revolt, unless you ignore our testimony of how we spent >5 billion to buy influence in Ukraine pre-revolt, unless you ignore the fact that our social media played a MAJOR role in getting Mr. Z elected and Google is a NSA creation, FB and others play along with our IC especially overseas (example: Arab Spring)... Mr. Z is very likely the “puppet,” a term some here like to use but would never apply to their own guy. The fact that our MSM and social media threw their weight behind Mr. Z should tell you everything.
Just in case you doubt it (Google): https://qz.com/1145669/googles-true-origin-partly-lies-in-cia-and-nsa-research-grants-for-mass-surveillance
Social media and its impact on the 2019 elections: https://lifeandletters.la.utexas.edu/2020/05/ukraines-social-media-presidency/
However, once this war started, to answer your question, “yes for sure” Ukraine is subordinate to us.
At that point, there was no doubt that we have the reigns in our hands, maybe not Trump entirely, maybe not even the US entirely, but the West et al. US, EU, NATO.
Ukraine floats or sinks based on Western (US, NATO and EU) support in terms of intel, weapons, the free flow of mercenaries we ensured was wide open, logistics, training, political backing, and money to keep their government and social services running. Don’t quote me, but I think between the US and EU something like 1/2 of Ukraine’s entire government budget was our aid!
If you think Ukraine is an independent nation once this war started, you may as well believe in the tooth fairy.
However, Ukraine is an Allie and we do not want to force them into a deal by cutting off crucial aid which would cause many people to lose their lives.
What we will likely do as a nuclear option if Ukraine’s junta does not play along is to push for elections and have them removed.
If Ukraine’s leadership does not do as told, Trump will push more and more for elections, and that would be their end: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5640123-trump-says-ukraine-should-hold-elections/ (From a year ago and now in the news again as Mr. Z is giving some pushback)
Mr. Z’s support in Ukraine and the BS polls you see published are about as real as Russian and Ukrainian casualty reports. According to Ukrainian polls he enjoys support by as many as 84%. Do you realize the ethnic Russian minority is about 18% in Ukraine? Can you do basic subtraction?
This guy used his Russian ethnicity to get support by the ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine (why they also voted for him) but then cracked down, purging pro-Russian influence in government, restricting the use of the Russian language, going after the Russian Orthodox church, sending Azov and thugs to the East to put a boot on the ethnic Russians neck. He said he would reform conscription (while he has done such, it’s not how the people envisioned it / sarc). He ran on a peace platform and we’re now in the 4th year of war with close to 200,000 Ukrainians dead or missing and many, many more crippled. Ukraine’s economy took a 30% nosedive, their currency has devalued, inflation is at 9.3% (official but far worse in reality), national debt exploded (the people’s wealth has evaporated). Kids are being chased down on the streets to be forced to fight in this war. You have millions of Ukrainians as refugees. He cancelled elections, has jailed opposition leaders, closed the borders to leave (as in turned Ukraine into a prison for its citizens - except for the elites), shut down radio, TV and print media that disagree with him, jailed journalists that dare say what he doesn’t like, you have widespread corruption, and everyone knows that he’s a draft dodger that never served in the military despite always wearing olive drab to show he’s a wartime leader. Do you (really) think this guy is loved like the Ukrainian polls and media pretend is the case? He’s about a popular as a colonoscopy. The only Ukrainians who love this guy are the ones living in Monaco: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9tyMQEePSE and of course our Western leaders, media and social media.
All Trump has to do is push for elections in Ukraine and if these aren’t fudged, Mr. Z is gone.
Complete nonsense. The Europeans are now providing 99% of the aid to Ukraine. The US sells weapons that the Europeans pay for, and even with that, supply of air defense has been slowed or withheld entirely. So exactly what leverage does Trump have?
The Ukrainian constitution specifies that elections are not to be held during wartime. The funniest part is the claim of "Russian language persecution." Every educated person in Ukraine speaks Russian, except maybe in the far west. I doubt even Zelensky or most of the high-level Ukrainian officials speak it very well. Many people speak a middling dialect. And even native Russian speakers may no longer identify as Russians any more than English-speaking Americans think of themselves as Brits. The same is true about the "persecution of the Russian Orthodox Church." That church has been a wholly owned subsidiary of the Russian state since Peter the Great, so of course some of its congregations have been suppressed. Not all.
As far as foreign interference goes, Yanukovych was elected mainly as Putin's cats paw in Ukraine. He arrested his predecessor, wrecked much of Ukraine's military, and was clearly positioning himself as -at best- another Lukashenko. Refusing the EU agreement passed by parliament to accept Putin's offer clearly signaled his intentions. So the Ukrainians, with some US assistance, forced him out, although he only fled when it became apparent that Ukrainian forces would not machine gun their own people on Maidan. US assistance may have been a necessary condition, but certainly not a sufficient one given the depth of resistance.
The bottom line is that Putin invaded Ukraine thinking it would be an easy target. The "Biden" regime believed the same, which is why they offered Zelensky a ride out. The "Biden" regime was willing to sell out the whole country to Putin without lifting a finger. Trump believed he could easily bully and entice Putin with some economic deal. All this shows is he misunderstood both the Ukrainians' capacity for stubborn resistance and self-reliance and Putin's motivations, which are about glory and conquest for Russia, not money. Now Trump has reduced his leverage over Ukraine to almost nothing but is slowly tightening the screws on Russia. For the Ukrainians the best path is to play along with the talks and keep killing Russian soldiers faster than Putin can supply them.
“we do not want to force them into a deal by cutting off crucial aid”
Which aid are you talking about ?
Russia KNOCKS Ukraine Back in Kostiantynivka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNj8ylB623U
Instead of repeating things you hear and sound good to you, why don’t you try to actually look things up and make sure you have your facts straight.
This is the constitution of Ukraine:
https://rm.coe.int/constitution-of-ukraine/168071f58b
Show me where it says no elections in war?
It says no elections during martial law. Ukraine and in particular Mr. Z and his junta decided to implement martial law in Ukraine.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/02/24/martial-law-ukraine-russia-attack/6925581001/
Many nations have elections during war. We had elections 1812 (when we were invaded and the capital was sacked), in the civil war, WWI, WWII...
The US is still providing key weapon systems and support for them, Intel, tech personnel, logistics, etc. If we cut Ukraine off, they are screwed.
The key difference is that in 2022 every politician wanted to be seen with Mr. Z and in front of our hardware going down range. In about 2024 public opinion went against the war and now we simply keep the hardware going down range behind the fence in places like Ramstein etc.
Do you think Ukraine has the technicians to keep their F16s (probably very effective in an anti drone role of I had to guess) flying? The Euros do not have the sort of signal and imagery Intel we have? And and and...
Once we pack up and leave, the war is over. The Euros will NOT go it alone. The risk exposure would be to great.
The US is the underwriter for Western security issues when the rubber hits the road. We have the big toys, the strategic assets in force projection and logistics, the nukes, the capabilities to operate in a high threat environment (air) and unconventional warfare means, IC or even just ordinance (bust bunkers, SEAD etc) to pull shit off the Euros can’t even dream of. We have the mass even on land (and we are in reality a maritime and air power, not a ground power) comparable to Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain combined. Once we pack up for real, it’s done.
If the Euros “go it alone” (for real) the threat to them becomes excessive and they lack certain capabilities they simply can’t being to the table.
Even on intel the French have their own satellites and they and the Brits fly sigint aircraft similar to ours (or the same models) over the Black Sea. The Europeans also have considerable experience flying F16s and the maintenance crews and parts needed to fix them.
Most of all, you seem to forget Ukraine is not fighting the US, only Russia whose forces are severely deficient in all fields except manpower, which they squander spectacularly. Russia could never even establish air supremacy over Ukraine.
The one area I think you are correct about is political will. There is simply no structure in Europe to force a unified approach, although I think with the proposed changes to the EU to remove the veto they are moving in that direction.
As far as martial law goes, the amount of territory invaded by Russia doesn't make the situation comparable to the US in WWII at all, especially considering the penetration of Ukraine by Russian intel services, including elements of the Russian Orthodox Church and pro-Russia political parties on Putin's payroll. 1812 is even less comparable, as the British did not seize any significant territory but simply launched punitive raids. And during the Civil War Lincoln suspended habaes and had the Copperheads arrested.
Ukraine ultimately has considerable leverage over Europe: collapse would mean Europe flooded with 20 million refugees. It's far cheaper for Europe to keep arming Ukraine.
What is The Institute for the Study of War?
it’s victoria nuland et al
Nope,
Far more than Patriot. And the Patriots were handing to Ukraine are older (the US Army is getting the newer stuff), but still capable.
Just Starlink alone (critical for Ukraine): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64579267. Basically the backbone of their communications and used by their drones which are fairly significant for them.
And no, the Euros do not have anything even remotely close to the capabilities we have.
We were looking inside of aircraft hangers with open doors 30+ years ago, bouncing it off the concrete before the hanger or as the satellite goes to the horizon and gets a frontal view. Our IC capabilities (collection but also offensive) are beyond what anyone of our allies have. They are “literally” 20 years behind us and then with only very limited mass/quantity.
You see, it’s not just about having a cool toy like a javelin missile or even certain satellites, you also need the “mass” in these systems to really make a difference, and when you can hand someone 10,000 javelin missiles like we did with Ukraine, you fundamentally change the battle space. Truth is, Iraq 2003 had the Kornet (and our tanks did take hits and were penetrated), but a handful of systems aren’t going to make a difference in the grand scheme of things.
But yes, The Euros have stepped up to the plate and are providing the bulk of the help at this point. But they do not have some of the critical systems and capabilities Ukraine needs.
The one exception would be Starlink. I would assume the Ukrainians are aware of that and we can see what effect cutting the pirated Russian terminals is having on Russian forces right now, which will be made worse when Putin cuts off Telegram. If the US cuts off Starlink for Ukraine the Europeans will take that as the US openly siding with Russia, and will increase their assistance.
Yes, the Euro’s have stepped up to the plate: https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/38-billion-in-support-of-ukraine-for-drones-air-defence-and-patriot-missiles-outcomes-of-one-of-the-most-successful-ramstein-format-meetings
In the inter war period 14-21, it was us that carried most the weight, and in the beginning of this war, our massive and rapid response was critical in keeping Ukraine viable against Russia. 15,000 Austrian army helmets won’t make much of a difference, 10,000 Javelin (that’s real) missiles will.
However, even now, the Euros do not have our capabilities across a wide spectrum nor the mass (space-based systems, busting bunkers, operating in a high threat environment for air...). It’s some of the higher-level stuff which we bring to the table (Intel: SIGINT, IMINT, satcom, etc. which have and continue to pay off huge dividends for Ukraine and frankly no Allie as an equivalent of.
It’s hard to hide when someone is looking at you optically, thermally, with radar that can see through smoke, sand storms, and clouds, picking up emissions across a wide span of the EMS, identifying what they are and where they came from (locating the origin) across the entire battlespace, can put all this together in a common picture, maintain this near real time, distribute pertinent information to the various entities which can use this, all the way down to the tactical level in a reliable, secure, and timely manner.
Furthermore, if we were to disengage from this conflict entirely, things would be too hot for the Euro’s. As it stands, Russia has to be careful how they retaliate may it be the French seizing their ships or UK long range missiles striking deep into Russia, etc.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmxjverzzro
If we are not in the picture (no longer acting as the security underwriter), the Russians will be far more forceful in how they retaliate. When you have a big brother who is the biggest kid on the playground, other kids tend to leave you alone.
But that’s just my estimate of the situation.
Defensive forces suffer less casualties, and they have better access to emergency medical care that assault troops.
Ukrainian FPV and night bomber crews are very effective against Russian assault troops since they have to break cover to assault, and that is deadly in a drone patrolled battle field.
Russian KIA numbers far exceed Ukrainian KIA numbers along the front lines.
They make artillery far more effective as well as the BDA more accurate.
“As of early 2026, Russia is estimated to fire approximately 300,000 to 400,000 artillery shells per month (roughly 10,000–13,000+ daily), maintaining a significant advantage. Ukraine, restricted by ammunition shortages and logistical constraints, fires significantly fewer, generally ranging from 60,000 to 150,000+ per month (2,000–5,000+ daily), with rates heavily dependent on Western aid.”
They also help with targeting for attack aviation, missile strikes, MLRS, etc: https://liveuamap.com/
No worries, not long after it's finished, we'll make some movies where we win in some imaginary way as with Rambo. Only now, a puffy lipped American woman of 115 lbs. will save the day. Will she be black or Latino?
The Russians are doing a slow creep EXACTLY BECAUSE they are casualty averse.
Besides, they have achieved their political and military objectives:
Political: block NATO accession by Ukraine.
Military: seize the more ethnic Russian areas of eastern Ukraine.
Never was it their goal to take all of Ukraine. That’s a goal post we pulled from our @ss.
Taking all of Ukraine would be a long term nightmare as Russia will have to expend vast resources in military, Intel, security forces, money over many years (probably decades) to truly gain control. No different than us in Iraq or Afghanistan where we never truly did gain complete control.
All Russia is doing now is “keeping the pressure on.” Their military campaign now serves the political end as a deal is made (having the upper hand) and to prevent Ukraine from amassing a reserve with which they can launch a true counter offensive as in late 2023. Force Ukraine to deploy their forces, keep creeping forward little by little. The longer the war rages on, the bigger of a loser Ukraine will be.
You have over 800 miles which comprises the forward edge of battle (FEBA). Ukraine cannot cover this area effectively. At this point, to keep the pressure on, Russia merely needs to continuously asses where there is a weaker area they can creep forward and push, without falling into a trap.
As to drone warfare, that goes both ways:
Russia is employing as many as 10,00 drones per day. https://www.hudson.org/missile-defense/impact-drones-battlefield-lessons-russian-ukraine-war-french-perspective-tsiporah-fried#:~:text=Other%20drone%20variants%20have%20also,A%20Tactical%20Warfare%20Revolution
Ukraine is employing about 9,000 drones per day. https://medium.com/@hayekesteloo/ukraine-deploys-9-000-drones-daily-in-staggering-scale-of-modern-warfare-cd37afbd0758
The disparity when it comes to tube artillery, MLRS, attack aviation, longer range missiles, and conventional air dropped bombs is far greater than the drone use, and to Russia’s advantage in every aspect. But sure, Russia is suffering massive casualties and Ukraine isn’t. LOL
Russia is doing few massive attacks except in key areas from what I see (key terrain), just a constant push mostly that’s moving and eating like an ameba (where most of the 176 square miles of gained territory per month comes from). As Russia pushes, Ukraine is forced to reallocate troops and other resources, and that creates new weak spots (they can’t effectively cover 800 miles of frontage). Because this is all about smaller units and no huge formations, you don’t have the IMINT and SIGINT giving you a heads up of force concentrations about to conduct major operation.
You know the beautiful thing about so called casualty statistics?
I can make any claim I want.
These are essentially “make belief” figures.
Real figures surely do exist. They matter and influence what we do. But these figures are not being made available to the public for a very obvious reason.
You have to find sources you give some credibility; not just make you feel good.
And even then, realize that there are differences in definitions (when an MIA counted, what constitutes a WIA...), dates of when the figures were presented, or what all these casualties include and exclude: KIA, MIA, WIA, POW.
The only source I truly give any degree of credibility is long expired in its usefulness:
https://www.newsweek.com/2023/05/05/read-leaked-secret-intelligence-documents-ukraine-vladimir-putin-1794656.html
What this document really should tell you, is that our news media is trash. At the time this article ran, presenting the true figures our government and NATO were using to make their internal assessments with, our media was reporting Russian casualties being 2 - 3 TIMES greater than they actually were.
The Russians did have a bad start, even though they achieved their military and political objectives. They paid a high price. However, since then, Ukraine launched a casualty intense counter offensive and Russia has adapted their tactics as well as field new equipment which has greatly reduced the effectiveness of some of our cool toys. Most importantly, having achieved their military and political objectives, the Russians do not need to make bold moves on a map. They just need to keep pushing slowly but consistently. In fact, the slow creep is to avoid casualties, and our propaganda spin of this is that Russia isn’t taking much ground quickly. The propaganda spin is that Russia is gaining a little bit every month.
Some Western media is just now understanding what is going on and reporting about it: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260224-how-russia-thousand-cuts-tactic-is-straining-ukraine-frontline-forces I attempted to explain this about a year ago (the slow creep), see my old posts. BTW, France is not pro-Russian nor is that media outlet.
Use your brain. If Russian casualties were truly 2 million men like some of our media report at this point, Russia would not be able to conduct this campaign overwhelmingly with contracted soldiers (this would not be possible)... We’re just throwing around ever bigger numbers, but they are trash.
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12606#:~:text=Contract%20recruits%20earn%20high%20salaries,reported%20initial%20goal%20of%20403%2C000. I do not think this assessment to be a lie regards the use of contract soldiers by Russia. The Russian media has also covered this in detail since they have some policies or laws that restrict how they may use conscripts (I don’t know all the details about this). That said, look at how we phrase our bullshit Russian casualties “Some Western and Ukrainian officials estimate” LOL.
If you want to use casualty statistics as the public has available to them from our MSM, you may as well use the movie Rambo as your go to source of how the Vietnam war went.
Why do I believe this?
The Russians approached this entirely different than in the South or Center.
A good diversion isn't a feint. A feint is tricking an enemy, but a diversion FORCES the enemy to react because if they do not, they stand to lose something even more precious, in this case Kiev.
The Russian blitz for Kiev was intended to force Ukraine to pull troops from the South and Center, Russia's Main Effort, and thereby making that an easier task.
However, in the court of public opinion, this was sold as some huge Ukrainian victory, and like our bogus casualty reports that say nothing about Ukraine, we to this day plaster this all over a map to show some sort of success, when in reality Russia controls nearly everything they wanted.
This allows us to make pretty maps that look like we're doing OK: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
Here's a dose of reality:
Russia has blocked Ukraine from entering NATO, the political objective.
Russia has seized near all the ethnic Eastern territories, 20% of what once was Ukraine, the military objective.
It is Russia that is seizing an additional 176 square miles per month on average.
Ukraine had EU membership in reach before the war, but no one in the EU wants this crippled basket case at this point. That has slipped away.
Ukraine's already bad birth rate went to abysmal, one of the worst on the planet and unsustainable for just generation (35 years).
Ukraine has seen their GDP implode by 30%. Ukraine would not even be able to pay for their public servants and services without Western aid at this point.
Ukraine's currency has devalued.
Ukraine's debt has exploded.
Ukraine has had millions leave the country, many never to return.
Ukraine's infrastructure is heavily damaged.
Ukraine's government went from being a US and to a lesser degree EU puppet regime 2014 - 2021 to being an outright dictatorship in 2022: canceled elections, banned political opposition, suspicious deaths of political opponents, jailing journalists and beating them, closing radio, print and TV media that say anything the regime don't like, building fences on their border NOT to keep people out but rather prevent people from leaving!
Do you realize, (((EVERY))) prediction we made about Russia's economy and how they would collapse has not come true but has occurred with Ukraine and we simply don't talk about it!
This war in Ukraine is an abject failure.
The only consolation I have, is that possibly this war was caused intentionally to weaken Russia's position on the world stage.
Maybe Ukraine is not really our center of gravity. This war has the Ukrainians doing all the bleeding, and the Euro's flipping 1/2 the bill, the Euros dealing with the bulk of the refugees and being responsible for the post war clean up. All this while we make mineral deals in Ukraine, push Russia out of Western/Central Europe what gas and oil are concerned, sell weapons, and gobble up more of what once was under Russia's control in the Middle East, North Africa and South America. What we did October 2021 was so over the top ridiculous, and those in power on our side cannot be that naive/stupid, that war was almost a guaranteed outcome.
Disregard what the outcome in Ukraine is. See it as a "shaping operation" that sets the stage for success elsewhere.
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