Posted on 02/07/2026 4:14:41 AM PST by Duke C.
As of recent data (reflecting 2024-2025 estimates):Proven global crude oil reserves are around 1.77 trillion barrels (or approximately 1,765 billion barrels). At current consumption levels (roughly equivalent to recent production of about 100-103 million barrels per day), this equates to about 47 years of reserves left.
This figure comes from sources like Worldometer, which bases it on 2025 reserve data and 2024 consumption levels.
(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...
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(about 47 years)
I’m gonna have to stop driving in 2073?
No way!!
Plus, many of these holes refill themselves.
There is also a viable theory that the earth continually creates oil and gas as a matter of course.I doubt it is a finite supply.
But even if we only had 47 years of oil, fusion is likely to come into play over that time.Much easier to do in orbit and beam down the energy.
We’ll probably design better batteries. Hook up to nuclear power.
AI apparently doesn’t inherently know squat.
AI is not out there doing basic research of any kind.
AFAICT, it is an able student learner able to fluently and verbosely [with much appreciated nuance] regurgitate what it has learned.
We also have coal and natural gas, which increases the supply to last at least 200 years.
As mentioned, this is only proven reserves. We probably have 3-5 times as much in the ground. Vast areas of the earth have not been explored for oil, and extraction technology continues to improve.
As others have mentioned, there are vast supplies of energy from other sources available. Battery tech continues to improve, making electric transport more efficient, and solar power more reliable.
Grok - Garbage in, garbage out
GIGO
“Fossil” oil is abiotic
The green movement has hung its hat on 50 years for better than 40 years. Very few people realize that it is not advantageous to discover oil until about 20 years before it is to be exploited. First it causes conflicts that do not need to occur, and second it causes taxation and spreadsheet hell before income, even worse than wars for large oil companies.
Just add this to my long list of: Things To Worry About.
GROK - Garbage Received, Output Karens
(I got Grok to do that)
Question:
How do the rate of discovery and the rate of use of proven oil reserves relate over time?
Grok’s key answer:
“proven reserves have continued to increase (e.g., from ~1 trillion barrels in the 1980s to 1.77 trillion barrels in 2025), primarily due to factors beyond new discoveries: upward revisions of existing field estimates, advancements in enhanced oil recovery technologies, and the reclassification of unconventional resources (e.g., shale oil, tar sands) as proven.”
Grok in full:
Historically, the rate of discovery of new oil reserves (measured in billion barrels per year or equivalent) peaked in the 1960s at around 50-60 billion barrels annually, driven by major finds in regions like the Middle East and North America.   During this period and earlier (1900-1985), annual discovery volumes generally exceeded production (use) rates, leading to net growth in global proven reserves as new fields were added faster than oil was extracted. 
Since the 1980s, however, the relationship has inverted: annual production has consistently outpaced new discoveries, meaning the world has been depleting existing reserves faster than replenishing them through exploration alone.    For example:
• In the early 2000s, discoveries averaged around 10-20 billion barrels per year (e.g., 10.1 billion in 2001, 6.6 billion in 2002), while production was approximately 26-27 billion barrels annually.  
• By the early 2010s, discoveries were still over 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per year, but began declining sharply.  
• Since 2020, discoveries have averaged about 8 billion boe annually, dropping to 5.5 billion boe in 2023-2024 and as low as 1.8 billion barrels in 2024.   
• In contrast, global production (use) has risen steadily, from about 75 million barrels per day (mb/d, ~27 billion barrels/year) in the early 2000s to 84 mb/d (~31 billion barrels/year) by 2008, and around 100 mb/d (~36.5 billion barrels/year) in recent years, with 30.1 billion barrels extracted in 2024 alone.   
This imbalance has resulted in replacement ratios (discoveries as a percentage of production) falling to lows like 6% in 2024, compared to over 100% in earlier decades.   Despite this, proven reserves have continued to increase (e.g., from ~1 trillion barrels in the 1980s to 1.77 trillion barrels in 2025), primarily due to factors beyond new discoveries: upward revisions of existing field estimates, advancements in enhanced oil recovery technologies, and the reclassification of unconventional resources (e.g., shale oil, tar sands) as proven.    At current rates, these reserves equate to about 47 years of supply, though future shortfalls are projected if discoveries remain low.  
The trend reflects geological limits: larger fields were found first, with later discoveries being smaller and more costly.  Production peaks typically follow discovery peaks by 30-40 years in a region, as seen in the U.S. (discoveries peaked 1930s, production 1970) and globally (discoveries 1960s, conventional production peaked ~2019).    Overall, the declining discovery rate relative to rising use indicates increasing reliance on existing reserves and technology, with potential implications for supply security and prices.
We need to get on the Nuke-you-lure bandwagon where electricity won’t need to be metered [as I wuz instructed as a kid in the late 60s].
I’d be happy to have a 36500 charge cycle SUV golf-cart to go in and out of town daily while also having a trip/off-road petro fueled vehicle for traveling/fun.
The level of known reserves is set by the price of oil. Double the price and suddenly it is profitable to go looking for new oil. The Norwegians proved several decades ago there’s oil almost everywhere if you’re willing to go deep enough. Going deep requires a high price. If the prices stay low, then nobody goes exploring for new oil. When the price goes really low then companies shut down wells that require more money to get a barrel of oil to market. That oil doesn’t go away. It just isn’t taken out of the ground because its quality is too low, or the access and repair cost is too great or the shipping from that location costs more. But the oil is STILL THERE, just waiting the right market conditions to return.
Raise the price sufficiently and suddenly there’s new technology, new techniques and it makes sense to find better extraction mechanisms for “played out” fields. If the price got high enough and there really was no new oil, you can bet that we’d find an alternative.
If only we could get stupid voters to stop clutching their pearls and appreciate the benefits of a free economy, we’d all be far better off.
The gas giant planets are gigantic clouds of hydrocarbons. Evidence that dinosaurs roamed their(nonexistent) surfaces long ago? At colder than -100 degrees C?
Just for clarification; the Too Cheap To Meter phrase referred to Fusion and not Fission.
https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/students/history-101/too-cheap-to-meter
I remember commercials back in the late 60’s stating that we would be running out of fossil fuels before the mid-70’s. The same people that said we were going to freeze to death and now claim global warming. The same people that said we and everything we hold dear are going to perish due to acid rain. When will we stop paying attention to these people?
‘
For those of you who think that our numbers are low in comparison, oil reserves are not defined well enough for the public.
Oil reserves are the estimated quantities of crude oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids in known underground reservoirs that are technically and economically recoverable under current market conditions and technology. These, primarily, are categorized as proved (1P), probable (2P), or possible (3P) based on the certainty of recovery.
So there are factors that are not covering what is actually under there. Any time the word “economical” is tossed in, it bears the recoverability based more on the bottom line than on the actual amount. The full “estimate” of the bulk is still incomplete as the US, for instance, is not totally aware of the amount in ANWR or the Rockies. It just hasn’t become a source since it isn’t needed yet so the oil companies haven’t tapped it. If it becomes a need for economics, the companies will have a better idea how much is down there because they are looking for it. It’s all based upon the market demand and the cost to supply it.
wy69
There is no need to be concerned.
Within the next year or so, Alberta with tremendous proven reserves will have left the Canadian Federation and become part of America.
Oh and BTW, the reserves in Alaska that have been removed from the table are of unmeasurable magnitude
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