Posted on 12/31/2025 12:45:05 PM PST by Red Badger
A powerful geomagnetic storm may light up skies across parts of the United States on New Year’s Eve, as a surge in solar activity raises the odds of seeing the aurora borealis farther south than usual. According to a forecast by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, residents in up to ten U.S. states may witness this rare atmospheric event, just in time to ring in the new year. The forecast follows a burst of activity from a large sunspot, sending energy toward Earth and setting the stage for a potentially spectacular natural display.
States Most Likely to Witness the Aurora Borealis
The ten U.S. states with the highest chance of seeing the northern lights include Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Idaho, Maine, Washington, and Oregon. These areas fall close to the auroral oval, a ring-shaped zone around Earth’s magnetic poles where auroral activity is typically strongest.
NOAA’s latest forecast shows a high probability of visibility for these states on the night of December 31 into the early morning of January 1. The visibility will depend heavily on weather conditions and light pollution. Those living in more southern regions may also get a glimpse, especially if the storm intensifies beyond current predictions. The best chance to view the lights will be during the darkest hours, from 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. local time, when the geomagnetic activity is expected to peak.
NOAA’s aurora viewline for Dec. 31, 2025, through Jan. 1, 2026. Credit: NOAA
What’s Driving This Aurora Surge: NOAA’s Solar Forecast
The increased chance of aurora visibility is tied to a recent coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from the sun on December 28, triggered by active sunspot AR3514. This region on the sun has been producing M-class and X-class solar flares, which send charged particles hurtling through space and toward Earth.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has classified the expected geomagnetic activity as a G2-level storm, strong enough to disturb Earth’s magnetic field and expand the auroral oval southward. Using the OVATION aurora model, NOAA scientists predict significant aurora activity across the northern United States, depending on how the incoming solar wind interacts with Earth’s magnetosphere.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center continues to monitor the situation closely and updates its real-time maps regularly. Skywatchers are encouraged to check the Aurora 30-minute Forecast tool on NOAA’s website for the most current visibility data.
How to Maximize Your Chances of Seeing the Northern Lights
To witness the aurora, location and timing are key. Clear, dark skies offer the best conditions, so avoiding city lights is critical. Head to wide-open spaces or higher ground with a northern view. Check your local weather forecast to ensure cloud-free skies, and bring extra layers for warmth.
There are also tools that can help. Apps like Aurora Alerts, My Aurora Forecast, or NOAA’s own web maps offer live updates on geomagnetic activity. For those hoping to photograph the event, bring a tripod and use a long exposure setting to capture the light in detail. Even smartphone cameras can capture basic images if adjusted properly.
The aurora may begin faintly after sunset but tends to be strongest between midnight and 2 a.m. Patience is key, many displays build gradually or come in short, sudden bursts. If conditions are right, observers could be treated to green, purple, or even red waves of light dancing across the northern horizon.
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Ping!................
Ping!................
Lucky for us, well have dense cloud cover to keep us from being blinded. Happy New Year!
Maine’s not far from me...but it’s supposed to be snowing tonight where I am.
Alas, we’ll be clouded over….
My area is going to have cloud cover, so I won’t see anything.
Now if I could only manage to stay up past my usual bedtime of 9pm.
Bummer, we’re supposed have a clear sky tonight, but we’re a little too far south. Caught the show a couple of weeks ago in KS.
Possible aurora ping
Thanks for the ping! I love monitoring solar weather. Wish I was further north to see it.
Thanks for the heads-up on this.
We currently have clear skies and stars out, no aurora at this time.
(Southern Wisconsin 10pm New Year’s Eve)
Will keep checking for the aurora.
Saw a great aurora show in October this year.
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