Shanghai Silver Jumps 8%. Silver Price Target $250 by July 2026

Silver Academy ^ | 26 Dec 25 | Silver Academy

[delta7]

China’s relentless silver buying at record prices, a record SHFE spread, and 2026 export controls confirm silver has become the decisive industrial, economic, tech, and military weapon

Physical silver buying in China is continuing at full speed even as silver marks fresh all‑time highs, and that persistence is the tell. What is unfolding is not a normal commodity cycle; it is a quiet arms race for the metal that powers the modern world.​

Silver buying doesn’t care about price.

China’s silver demand has only intensified as prices have exploded, with Shanghai spot and near‑dated SHFE futures trading at persistent premiums to London and New York. That premium is arbitrage’s way of screaming that real metal in China is worth more than Western paper promises.​

Silver is a critical input for solar, electronics, EVs, data centers, AI hardware, medical devices, drones, and precision weapons, and Chinese manufacturers cannot simply “opt out” when prices rise. For tens of thousands of factories, silver is a tiny share of the finished product’s cost, so they buy regardless and pass the higher input cost on to the end user.​

Spot–SHFE spread snaps

In recent months, China’s basis and futures curve have repeatedly blown out, with SHFE silver trading at record levels and a rich premium over LBMA prices. Rising open interest and backwardation on the SHFE curve show this is not a one‑off squeeze, but a crowd of domestic players leaning hard into physical‑anchored prices.​

That widening gap between Western spot and Chinese prices is the market’s split screen: paper markets marking time in New York while Shanghai bids up metal needed for factories, power grids, and weapons systems. When spreads get this extreme, silver naturally flows toward the highest, most reliable buyer—and right now, that is China.​

January 1, 2026: export door slams

Beijing has now formalized its strategy: from January 1, 2026, silver exports fall under strict state‑trading controls and licensing through at least 2027. Exporters will need Ministry of Commerce approval, and only large, state‑sanctioned producers meeting high output thresholds will even qualify, effectively ring‑fencing more domestic mine supply for internal use and stockpiling.​​

This is not a random regulatory tweak; it mirrors China’s earlier playbook in rare earths, tungsten, and other strategic materials—tighten exports, secure domestic supply, and turn a raw material into geopolitical leverage. Once these curbs begin, the West will no longer be able to count on emergency silver shipments from China to bail out London or COMEX during a squeeze.​

Silver as a 21st‑century weapon

Whoever controls the most silver will not just dominate jewelry or coins; they will anchor four pillars of power:

Industrial power – Silver is indispensable for high‑efficiency solar cells, advanced semiconductors, sensors, and precision manufacturing.​ Economic power – By controlling export flows and stockpiles, China can tighten or relax silver supply to influence inflation, production costs, and trade balances in rival economies.​ Technology power plus Robotics– From AI data centers and 5G infrastructure to EVs and next‑gen batteries, silver is baked into the hardware of the digital and green revolutions.​​ Military power – Guidance systems, radar, secure communications, drones, missiles, torpedoes, and space assets all depend on silver‑rich electronics and specialized components.​ Silver is no longer just “poor man’s gold.” It is an arms‑race metal, and China’s decision to hoard, premium‑price, and restrict exports into 2026 is a declaration that the race is officially on. It is predicted that USA will not just roll over but try and win this war.

As BRICS vs NATO intensify the winner will be SILVER.

[thinden]

Suppose the banking system were to crash and we need to exchange out silver for something spendable.

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silver coins would be readily exchanged for goods in barter

[Presbyterian Reporter]

As I see things, the AI tech bros are basing their future builds on silver being a very necessary component.

It could take years for them to find something else to replace silver.

So if all of this AI chatter, where trillions of dollars are planning to be spent, is true, then silver seems to be at the beginning of a high demand scenario.

[dynachrome]

At these prices I won’t be stacking.

[Roman_War_Criminal]

This is exactly why the elites want CBDC’s and a biometric chip for everyone.

Physical assets are much harder to control than digital currencies.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Very long term view of silver

[Obadiah]

A lot of people (Rick Rule comes to mind) predicted that the price of gold and/or silver would explode once retail investors woke up and began buying these metals. Retail investors have had exclusive stocks and bonds blinders on. Perhaps the scales are now dropping from their eyes. If so, watch out.

[delta7]

At these prices I won’t be stacking.

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Sorry to hear, we are in a generational Bull run. You are free to invest as called to.
At the very least, put your paper dollars into tangible assets....but start converting paper Dollars.

[ReganFan4ever]

If anyone thinks electrons on a screen, paper instruments denominated in paper “ promises to pay” is money, well, carry on.
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Exactly what I was thinking.

I knew I had some silver dollars that were gifted to me. I found them hidden in my closet. They are beautiful! All .999 American Eagles

5 2003
1 1986
1 1985
Gold and silver is real money unlike paper money, electron on a screen . Lol!

[delta7]

I knew I had some silver dollars that were gifted to me. I found them hidden in my closet. They are beautiful! All .999 American Eagles

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The real test, bury them, when they are recovered 100, 200 years later they will have value.....try burying paper dollars or Bitcoin air and see what value they have down the road....by the way, US silver Eagles are bringing $85 plus at the big box retailers.....monster boxes are $40K plus.

[dakine]

Dad left me ~ 40 lbs. of circulated silver coins (dimes, quarters, half-dollars) - best way to sell it?

He and Grandpa left me $6k in gold coins - $5 and $10 denominations - they are worth more numismatically than as gold...

[dynachrome]

I stacked a bit in the past. Mostly silver.

[CFW]

Silver is now up almost 10% today.
Over +170% YTD. +$50 oz so far this year.
$28 to $78

There are several factors involved.

1) Starting Jan 1st, China has export restrictions on silver. China is the 2nd largest producer of silver in the world.

2) Globally, silver mines are not keeping up with silver demand. 5 years in a row demand has exceeded what the mines can produce. Industry has been consuming silver that was above ground in vaults. That supply is getting tight.

3) Companies like Samsung are going direct to silver miners and signing deals to buy silver production for years into the future. They are securing supply for their electronics manufacturing, which requires silver.

4) There is no way for mining companies to increase the supply of silver. Silver is mostly a biproduct of copper, lead or zinc mining. Mining companies get maybe 1% to 2% of their revenue from silver. They are not opening new mines because of silver prices. They don’t care, it is not meaningful to their revenue.

5) There are very few primary silver miners that get more than 50% of their revenue from silver. It is limited to a handful of stocks. The two that I own are Aya (AYASF) in Morocco and Silver X (AGXPF) in Peru.

6) Gold is up over 70% YTD, but silver is up over 170% YTD. Gold is a monetary metal, but it isn’t really consumed. It is only used for jewelry, which can be easily recycled back into a gold bars. Silver is actually consumed by industry, into electronics and other products. And much of it cannot be recycled. It is used and those obsolete electronics are often dumped into a landfill. That silver will never be recovered. They have tried, it is not profitable to recover the tiny amounts of silver in those products. But it adds up to hundreds of millions of silver oz per year, lost forever.

What does it all mean? Silver is a critical metal. It is the best conductor of electricity on the periodic table. And we don’t have enough of it.

[CFW]

Unless you really need some cash there is not much reason to sell it at this point. But if you decide to then a reputable jewelry and coin shop is the best place to sell your “junk silver”. If you just want a little cash, consider selling 1/4 of the coins and hang on to the majority of the stash.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Doubtful you ever see $60 silver again. Banking shorts have kept gold and silver artificially low for decades. The lid is coming off and I don’t think the genie can be put back in the bottle. Probably see $250 before its over.

[dakine]

Spending money... Been dragging the silver coins around for years... The gold coins are in safety deposit boxes
..

[kiryandil]

Thanks - very informative!

[Tuscaloosa Goldfinch]

Thanks