The Difference Between Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts

World Climate Service ^ | 10/12/2021 | Jan Dutton

[kawhill]

Weather forecasts are calculated by computer models (or dynamical models) that describe the evolution of the real atmosphere using mathematical equations.

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TOPICS: Food; History
KEYWORDS: deterministic; ensemble

[DoodleBob]

Good article.

The DF typically performs very well in the first six days ahead, but it can become unreliable at the seven to ten-day lead times, often showing an increasingly unlikely evolution.

But we ABSOLUTELY know the earth is gonna warm up over the next WH years.

[Deaf Smith]

Good read.

More science than I want to get into at my age, but always tried to understand the forecast and why of the AO I would be in for a job site.

Wished more people people in Texas this past 4 July had understood that tropical low that crossed into Big Bend from Mexico and paid attention to the weather forecast.

I and many others understood that it would be a big rain event once it picked up gulf moisture.

[catnipman]

actually, accuracy of weather forecasts fall off after 72 hours, but yeah, since we can’t predict weather beyond 3 days, then it’s completely irrational to accept that climate can be predicted a century in advance ...