On Russia-Ukraine, the misdiagnosed patient is flatlining

Responsible Statecraft ^ | Oct 27, 2025 | George Beebe

[E. Pluribus Unum]

All along we've been told this was about aggressive expansionism and applied a strategy of deterrence. That was wrong.

With the imposition of new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s dismissal of visiting Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev as a “propagandist,” the Trump administration’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine seem to be hanging by a thread.

Their success or failure will depend on a simple premise: one must understand a problem in order to resolve it. Unfortunately, the West has been misdiagnosing the problem it faces in Ukraine for more than a decade, with increasingly tragic consequences. And the time in which President Trump can correct this diagnosis — and corresponding policy prescription — is quickly running out.

Since at least 2014, the year of Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution and Russia’s subsequent decision to annex Crimea and back separatist fighters in the Donbass region, the West’s foreign policy stalwarts have regarded Russia’s military actions against Ukraine as something that President Putin views as an elective, an “unprovoked” ambition to acquire land and rebuild empire that is little more than a product of Russia’s authoritarian impulses.

As a result of this diagnosis, they have focused their efforts on raising the costs to Putin of conducting the war, cranking up pressure on Russia’s economy, ensuring that its military suffers high personnel and equipment losses, and attempting to turn Russians into international pariahs. If Putin sees that his grab for power and prestige has only produced weakness and humiliation, they reason, he will withdraw his invasion force or otherwise bow to Ukrainian terms for a settlement.

This diagnosis has also shaped Western terms for any post-settlement order. It underpins the insistence that Ukraine must be backed by a NATO Article V-style guarantee and/or a...

[kiryandil]

Listening to “The Yammering Of The Neocons”...

[Brian Griffin]

“addressing each side’s core security concerns in a way that none of them views as excessively threatening. The West would pledge not to bring Ukraine into NATO, put Western combat troops in Ukraine after a settlement, or provide Kyiv with long-range strike weapons.

“In turn, Russia would accept Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, acknowledge Ukraine’s right to an effective self-defense capability, and agree that Kyiv will get weapons, training, and military maintenance aid from the West.”

From my past post:

Putin probably has all the pro-Russian territory of Ukraine already. Ukraine will not give up territory without a fight.

Putin will probably effectively insist to the end that:
1. Russian assets to be returned by the EU, US & UK (over a specified time),
2. Ukraine to not be a threat to Russia as follows:
a. Ukraine to be neutral,
b. Ukraine not to be a member of any military alliance,
c. Ukraine not to have secret treaties,
d. no foreign military personnel, or any that have been employed by a NATO member government, to be on territory under control of Ukraine, or in its airspace, or on/in/above its territorial waters,
e. no nuclear weapons in Ukraine, or within its power,
f. no nuclear weapons development or production activity in Ukraine, or within its control,
g. no missiles with a diameter of more than that of a Patriot or long-range, or components thereof, to be in Ukraine, or within its control,
h. no drones under Ukrainian control to be within 12km of striking distance of Crimea, the Kerch bridge, Moscow, or Saint Petersburg,
except if stored within 50km of Kiev or Odessa or in transit west of those cities to Western Europe for export
i. no stealth aircraft to be on the territory under the control of Ukraine, or the airspace thereof,
excluding a certain number of manned aircraft [F-35s] to be flown only by persons only possessing Ukrainian citizenship,
3. full civil rights & anti-discrimination law protection for Russian ethnics and Russian language speakers resident in Ukraine,
4. Ukraine to enact and retain German-style anti-Nazi laws,
5. sanctions to be removed after a certain period of Russian good behavior.

Zelensky might insist that:
1. the agreement should state that it is a long-term armistance meant to preserve human life and property and that no territory is to be considered as ceded or any claim to territory relinquished,
2. Ukraine be allowed to have an unlimited number of trained military personnel of Ukrainian citizenship, artillery pieces, artillery shells, anti-aircraft guns, anti-aircraft missiles of types now in its service and future equivalents, tanks and drones of a range of less than a certain number of kilometers,
3. monetary aid from the US and EU to enable Ukraine to retain in military service its battle-hardened military personnel,
[I suggest up to $12 billion/year, up to a total of $200 billion.]
4. the Ukrainian right to buy listed weapons [Patriots, anti-aircraft weapons, artillery shells, missiles] from the US, EU and possibly the UK at prices in line with what the source entity government(s) would pay, if such would be in the interest of EU security,
[That’s a security guarantee that I think EU citizens and Americans can live with.]
5. sanctions on Russia to be removed only after a certain period of Russian good behavior.

Both sides will insist that all POWs be yielded up within a period of time.

The front lines should those of any day after October 10th selected by Trump as justified by US intelligence evidence. The US should identify these lines to both parties ASAP so they can agree to them.

There’s actually very little to negotiate:
1. the base schedule for the return of Russian assets,
and asset return rate changes to ensure the good behavior of Russians and Ukrainians,
including their paramilitaries and other irregulars,
2. possible plebiscites to allow Ukraine to recover pro-Kiev areas,
3. the range limit for missiles,
4. restrictions on drones,
5. the maximum allowable number of manned Ukrainian stealth aircraft [48 F-35s?],
and a possible reduction in size of their weapons bays and fuel tanks,
so they can’t carry nuclear weapons to Moscow,
6. demilitarized zones, perhaps one kilometer on each side of the settlement front lines,
7. partially demilitarized zones, perhaps
a. no armored vehicle within five kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
b. no concentration in excess of 1,000 troops or 10 armored vehicles within any square kilometer area within 10 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
c. no concentration in excess of 2,000 troops or 20 apparently armored vehicles within any 4 square kilometer area within 20 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
d. no concentration in excess of 10,000 troops and 500 associated vehicles within any 10 square kilometer area within 50 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
e. no stealth aircraft within 50 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
8. electricity arrangements,
9. pipeline transmission through Ukraine,
10. EU/UK/US funding and weapons provision to Ukraine,
11. the time period Russians must behave well before sanctions are removed.

[kiryandil]

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[kiryandil]

Ukraine will not give up territory without a fight.

You need an army to fight, and Syrsky is Russian-trained. So more Ukrainian meat-waves.

[PGR88]

Democrats / Neocons / NATO / The British / Davos all hope to have MAGA and Trump be destroyed by the issue of Ukraine

[Brian Griffin]

“meat-waves”

It is my understanding that the Russians in Donetsk are still trying and dying.

[chajin]

Unfortunately, the West has been misdiagnosing the problem it faces in Ukraine for more than a decade

They weren't misdiagnosing it, because it wasn't a bug, it was part of the plan: use Ukraine for money-laundering until it was no longer tenable to do it peacefully, then use it for money-laundering as part of the funding of the war.

Trump is the bug: he's blocked the flow of money, and now is trying to get the best deal he can from two tyrants (Putin and Zelenskyy) who would both rather die than deal.

[Brian Griffin]

The British:

“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Someone had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
....
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
....
Right thro’ the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel’d from the saber-stroke
Shatter’d and sunder’d.
Then they rode back, but
Not the six hundred
....
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade

Alfred Tennyson

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Poems_That_Every_Child_Should_Know/The_Charge_of_the_Light_Brigade

[kiryandil]

It is my understanding that the Russians in Donetsk are still trying and dying.

You're gonna be surprised when you find out the Western Media has been lying to you.

Hunh. Go figure - Western Media lying about stuff. "Cleanest election in history." "Trump is Hitler." etc., etc.

[kiryandil]

My email homepage is Yahoo!

Most of the page is newslies about Trump and his supprters.

[Reverend Wright]

“Hunh. Go figure - Western Media lying about stuff. “Cleanest election in history.” “Trump is Hitler.” etc., etc”

---

The typical Boomer-Con understands liberal media bias about USA news.

But foreign reporting is totally believed.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

---- "Trump is the bug: he's blocked the flow of money, and now is trying to get the best deal he can from two tyrants (Putin and Zelenskyy) who would both rather die than deal."

I think this is a most apt comment. Kudos. Given the US is 4 percent of the world population while Europe is larger and the HQ of NATO, the lobbying for President Trump to "fix" the mess seems inordinate.

It is worth recalling:

“500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. [...] Europe today lacks the belief that we are truly a global force.”

Polish PM Donald Tusk, speaking before his flight to London for the European Ukraine summit: X, 2 March 2025

While Tusk's numbers are a little dodgy, the imagery is clear. All those "leaders" politicking a leader....

[Owen]

Russia can be stopped. It will require theater magnitude nuclear weapons. Period. Nothing less will stop them.

That’s the decision facing the west. Not the US. Not conceivable Trump would use them to stop the Russian advance towards Odessa and Dnipro. And so . . . .

Both France and England have nuclear weapons. Would the US protect them if they are hit by nukes in retaliation for using them in Ukraine? I doubt it. Would this stop them from using them? Maybe not. They are that enraged.

If they persuade themselves the unfolding Russian victory is unacceptable to an extent such that they MUST employ their nukes to stop it happening, then they might do it. They would have to persuade themselves of existential consequence, and they might.

Is the US going to defend them after that? Doubtful. Would they be told this, or might they act without consultation? Depends on their desperation.

[Captain Peter Blood]

Once Nuclear weapons are used then we are all dead. There will be nothing left.
One side launches, then the other side will also and pretty much all life will become extinct. There is no such thing as a winnable Nuclear War.

[Captain Peter Blood]

Putin will not negotiate with Zelensky, he will want a newly elected legitimate government to deal with. Zelensky will go one way or another.

[ckilmer]

you don’t hear about uke meat waves.

they’re mostly on the defensive.

even the rukes don’t do meatwaves anymore.

they advance in skattered squads.

[Petrosius]

Unfortunately, the author ignores what Russia views as the “root problem”: Ukrainian independence. No, this war is not just about Russia’s security concerns. Read Russian authors, especially Alexandre Dumas and Putin himself. They do not view Ukraine as a legitimate country. Are they concerned about NATO expansion into Ukraine? Yes, but not because it would be a threat to Russia. Rather, because it would take away the threat that Moscow can have over Ukraine. The goal is to return Ukraine to the Russian orbit, either through outright annexation or by reducing it to a puppet state like Belarus.

[packrat35]

Why are we there? I ask this in all seriousness. Why are we involved at all. I know Russia is bad and I don’t support them, but Ukraine is not an ally, friend, or even necessary for our defense.

We have giving Ukraine money and arms for four years at great cost for what? It has run up our deficit, destabilized the world more, and lowered our defense abilities. If they were paying for the arms would be one thing, but they want a continual supply of free weapons and money.

And you can count on them wanting even more money when the war is over to rebuild. When will it end?

[packrat35]

You are insane to want nuclear weapons to be used. Once that happens, we all die.