“addressing each side’s core security concerns in a way that none of them views as excessively threatening. The West would pledge not to bring Ukraine into NATO, put Western combat troops in Ukraine after a settlement, or provide Kyiv with long-range strike weapons.
“In turn, Russia would accept Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, acknowledge Ukraine’s right to an effective self-defense capability, and agree that Kyiv will get weapons, training, and military maintenance aid from the West.”
From my past post:
Putin probably has all the pro-Russian territory of Ukraine already. Ukraine will not give up territory without a fight.
Putin will probably effectively insist to the end that:
1. Russian assets to be returned by the EU, US & UK (over a specified time),
2. Ukraine to not be a threat to Russia as follows:
a. Ukraine to be neutral,
b. Ukraine not to be a member of any military alliance,
c. Ukraine not to have secret treaties,
d. no foreign military personnel, or any that have been employed by a NATO member government, to be on territory under control of Ukraine, or in its airspace, or on/in/above its territorial waters,
e. no nuclear weapons in Ukraine, or within its power,
f. no nuclear weapons development or production activity in Ukraine, or within its control,
g. no missiles with a diameter of more than that of a Patriot or long-range, or components thereof, to be in Ukraine, or within its control,
h. no drones under Ukrainian control to be within 12km of striking distance of Crimea, the Kerch bridge, Moscow, or Saint Petersburg,
except if stored within 50km of Kiev or Odessa or in transit west of those cities to Western Europe for export
i. no stealth aircraft to be on the territory under the control of Ukraine, or the airspace thereof,
excluding a certain number of manned aircraft [F-35s] to be flown only by persons only possessing Ukrainian citizenship,
3. full civil rights & anti-discrimination law protection for Russian ethnics and Russian language speakers resident in Ukraine,
4. Ukraine to enact and retain German-style anti-Nazi laws,
5. sanctions to be removed after a certain period of Russian good behavior.
Zelensky might insist that:
1. the agreement should state that it is a long-term armistance meant to preserve human life and property and that no territory is to be considered as ceded or any claim to territory relinquished,
2. Ukraine be allowed to have an unlimited number of trained military personnel of Ukrainian citizenship, artillery pieces, artillery shells, anti-aircraft guns, anti-aircraft missiles of types now in its service and future equivalents, tanks and drones of a range of less than a certain number of kilometers,
3. monetary aid from the US and EU to enable Ukraine to retain in military service its battle-hardened military personnel,
[I suggest up to $12 billion/year, up to a total of $200 billion.]
4. the Ukrainian right to buy listed weapons [Patriots, anti-aircraft weapons, artillery shells, missiles] from the US, EU and possibly the UK at prices in line with what the source entity government(s) would pay, if such would be in the interest of EU security,
[That’s a security guarantee that I think EU citizens and Americans can live with.]
5. sanctions on Russia to be removed only after a certain period of Russian good behavior.
Both sides will insist that all POWs be yielded up within a period of time.
The front lines should those of any day after October 10th selected by Trump as justified by US intelligence evidence. The US should identify these lines to both parties ASAP so they can agree to them.
There’s actually very little to negotiate:
1. the base schedule for the return of Russian assets,
and asset return rate changes to ensure the good behavior of Russians and Ukrainians,
including their paramilitaries and other irregulars,
2. possible plebiscites to allow Ukraine to recover pro-Kiev areas,
3. the range limit for missiles,
4. restrictions on drones,
5. the maximum allowable number of manned Ukrainian stealth aircraft [48 F-35s?],
and a possible reduction in size of their weapons bays and fuel tanks,
so they can’t carry nuclear weapons to Moscow,
6. demilitarized zones, perhaps one kilometer on each side of the settlement front lines,
7. partially demilitarized zones, perhaps
a. no armored vehicle within five kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
b. no concentration in excess of 1,000 troops or 10 armored vehicles within any square kilometer area within 10 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
c. no concentration in excess of 2,000 troops or 20 apparently armored vehicles within any 4 square kilometer area within 20 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
d. no concentration in excess of 10,000 troops and 500 associated vehicles within any 10 square kilometer area within 50 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
e. no stealth aircraft within 50 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
8. electricity arrangements,
9. pipeline transmission through Ukraine,
10. EU/UK/US funding and weapons provision to Ukraine,
11. the time period Russians must behave well before sanctions are removed.
You need an army to fight, and Syrsky is Russian-trained. So more Ukrainian meat-waves.
Putin will not negotiate with Zelensky, he will want a newly elected legitimate government to deal with. Zelensky will go one way or another.