My Current Thoughts on a Possible Peace Deal

Putin probably has all the pro-Russian territory of Ukraine already. Ukraine will not give up territory without a fight.

Putin will probably effectively insist to the end that:
1. Russian assets to be returned by the EU, US & UK (over a specified time),
2. Ukraine to not be a threat to Russia as follows: a. Ukraine to be neutral,
b. Ukraine not to be a member of any military alliance,
c. Ukraine not to have secret treaties,
d. no foreign military personnel, or any that have been employed by a NATO member government, to be on territory under control of Ukraine, or in its airspace, or on/in/above its territorial waters,
e. no nuclear weapons in Ukraine, or within its power,
f. no nuclear weapons development or production activity in Ukraine, or within its control,
g. no missiles with a diameter of more than that of a Patriot or long-range, or components thereof, to be in Ukraine, or within its control,
h. no long-range drones in Ukraine, or under Ukrainian control or in Ukrainian airspace,
i. no drones under Ukrainian control to be within 12km of striking distance of Crimea, the Kerch bridge, Moscow, or Saint Petersburg,
j. no stealth aircraft to be on territory under the control of Ukraine, or the airspace thereof,
excluding a certain number of F-35s to be flown only by persons only possessing Ukrainian citizenship,
3. full civil rights & anti-discrimination law protection for Russian ethnics and Russian language speakers resident in Ukraine,
4. Ukraine to enact and retain German-style anti-Nazi laws,
5. sanctions to be removed after a certain period of Russian good behavior.

Zelensky might insist that:
1. the agreement should state that it is a long-term armistance meant to preserve human life and property and that no territory is to be considered as ceded or any claim to territory relinquished,
2. Ukraine be allowed to have an unlimited number of trained military personnel of Ukrainian citizenship, artillery pieces, artillery shells, anti-aircraft guns, anti-aircraft missiles of types now in its service and future equivalents, tanks and drones of a range of less than a certain number of kilometers,
3. monetary aid from the US and EU to enable Ukraine to retain in military service its battle-hardened military personnel,
[I suggest up to $12 billion/year, up to a total of $200 billion.]
4. the Ukrainian right to buy listed weapons [Patriots, anti-aircraft weapons, artillery shells, missiles] from the US, EU and possibly the UK at prices in line with what the source entity government(s) would pay, if such would be in the interest of EU security,
[That's a security guarantee that I think EU citizens and Americans can live with.]
5. sanctions on Russia to be removed only after a certain period of Russian good behavior.

The front lines should those of any day after August 18th selected by Trump as justified by US intelligence evidence. The US should identify these lines to both parties ASAP so they can agree to them.

There’s actually very little to negotiate:
1. the base schedule for the return of Russian assets,
and asset return rate changes to ensure the good behavior of Russians and Ukrainians,
including their paramilitaries and other irregulars,
2. possible plebiscites to allow Ukraine to recover pro-Kiev areas,
3. the range limit for missiles and drones,
4. the allowable number of Ukrainian F-35s[48?],
and a possible reduction in size of their weapons bays and fuel tanks,
so they can't carry nuclear weapons to Moscow,
5. demilitarized zones, perhaps one kilometer on each side of the settlement front lines,
6. partially demilitarized zones, perhaps
a. no drone within range of the demilitarized zones,
b. no armored vehicle within five kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
c. no concentration in excess of 1,000 troops or 10 armored vehicles within any square kilometer area within 10 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
d. no concentration in excess of 2,000 troops or 20 apparently armored vehicles within any 4 square kilometer area within 20 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
e. no concentration in excess of 10,000 troops and 500 associated vehicles within any 10 square kilometer area within 50 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
f. no stealth aircraft within 50 kilometers of the demilitarized zones,
7. electricity arrangements,
8. pipeline transmission through Ukraine,
9. EU/UK/US funding and weapons provision to Ukraine,
10. the time period Russians must behave well before sanctions are removed.

Nice work but it’s much easier to read Putin’s own words. Russian chauvinists of his ilk consider Ukrainains to be Russians and Ukraine to be part of Russia. And they are perfectly happy to kill anyone who disagrees.

Note the 2021 date. Mere months before Putin launched his genocidal war of choice on the second biggest country in Europe.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

July 12, 2021

During the recent Direct Line, when I was asked about Russian-Ukrainian relations, I said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people – a single whole. These words were not driven by some short-term considerations or prompted by the current political context. It is what I have said on numerous occasions and what I firmly believe. I therefore feel it necessary to explain my position in detail and share my assessments of today’s situation.

First of all, I would like to emphasize that the wall that has emerged in recent years between Russia and Ukraine, between the parts of what is essentially the same historical and spiritual space, to my mind is our great common misfortune and tragedy. These are, first and foremost, the consequences of our own mistakes made at different periods of time. But these are also the result of deliberate efforts by those forces that have always sought to undermine our unity. The formula they apply has been known from time immemorial – divide and rule. There is nothing new here. Hence the attempts to play on the ”national question“ and sow discord among people, the overarching goal being to divide and then to pit the parts of a single people against one another....

“Ukrainians defend their nation so that their children aren’t murdered by Moscow and their national identity is not wiped off the face of the earth.”

Records indicate they are not fighting for their children or their country’s extermination. According to the latest figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), almost 7 million Ukrainian refugees currently live abroad. The majority of them, some 6.3 million, are in Europe. That figure includes some 1.3 million Ukrainians who fled to Russia and Belarus.

As for the military, the Ukrainian Army is facing an unprecedented desertion crisis. Due to many factors including battle fatigue, throughout 2024, tens of thousands of soldiers have decided to abandon their combat positions in order to go home. This comes at a moment where the AFU is already facing a critical shortage of manpower.

I’m not sure you know the military, but if Putin was to fight the war to win it outright and not destroy the areas and worth he wants back, then you’d know he isn’t trying to murder. That he could do much easier with the power he has.

wy69

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