The Trump Iran Strikes Were a Message to China - America just became unpredictable.

Front Page Magazine ^ | 22 Jun, 2025 | Daniel Greenfield

[MtnClimber]

One of the great weaknesses of American foreign policy has been our predictability. Our opponents have been able to pinpoint what we would and would not do.

While one President Trump’s greatest strengths has been his unpredictability. And on the Iran strikes, he not only kept everyone guessing until the last minute, but used sophisticated means to draw everyone off. Tucker Carlson’s pal Dan Caldwell was booted from the Pentagon over allegations of leaking. So were a number of others. When the strikes were actually launched, there were zero leaks despite claims by some in the media that they were getting information from anonymous “officials”. Everyone had learned to stay quiet on the big issue.

The media and social media analysts were misled about our staging prep for an attack which proceeded quite differently.

President Trump’s “two week” deadline may have been sincere but fell apart when Iran refused to engage in high-level negotiations, but it may have been another level of the feint.

Either way everyone was caught by surprise. Including yours truly. And that’s a good thing.

It’s also a message to China. The CCP believes that it can anticipate and predict us. When it can’t, it gets nervous. Any CCP plan for Taiwan just became a lot shakier because there is no way that Xi and top officials can look at what happened with Iran and believe that they can gauge America’s response with any degree of certainity.

The Israeli response after Oct 7 against Hezbollah and now Iran already showed how war plans by their allies could go awry through misdirection and sophisticated planning. The Iran strikes are a more direct warning to China that America’s moves cannot be predicted and that, like the Israelis, we might be capable of something more sophisticated than our actions in the last generaton would suggest.

China’s allies in the Middle East are losing. And America just became unpredictable. That might buy us the time we need in the Pacific.

It now seems likelier that Xi will push back whatever he was planning for after 2028.

[Tallguy]

China’s allies in the Middle East are losing.

I dunno. Pakistan came out on top of India in that aerial battle -- at least in terms of the exchange on aircraft. I'd count that as a 'win' for a China ally.

[MtnClimber]

Yep. I have heard no protests from the Suni countries.

[dfwgator]

Turkey will be interesting.

I’ve been saying they want to resurrect The Ottoman Empire, and having Iran out of the way as a potential rival would be important for that to happen.

[kvanbrunt2]

What if the bunker buster did their thing but the Iranians have enough ingredients elsewhere to actually build several bombs.

[MtnClimber]

I agree that Turkey will be interesting.

[coloradan]

So, in other words, the media is an enemy mouthpiece. Which most of us already knew.

[Red6]

But it’s soooooooo obvious.

Now that Trump, a Republican, is in office, the tone changes entirely!

[Captainpaintball]

And expect republicants and especially this administration to continue to do nothing to prevent the theft from happening.

[Opinionated Blowhard]

One benefit of the Iran bombing is that it probably did remind China that the US isn’t weak and that it now has its will back to use its military power. We’d probably already have an invasion of Taiwan right now if Kamala was president.

[MtnClimber]

Iran has known this was a possibility for months. I am sure they moved material to multiple other locations.

[logi_cal869]

I don’t believe that the CCP was shocked in any way, shape or form.

I bet that they were watching live and nodded their heads, commenting, “Yup” in Mandarin.

[tin hat on]

The larger question is whether they achieved their goals of ELINT from all the equipment they flew over in those 747s...and how close they were to the blast area.

[tin hat off]

[cuz1961]

I expect they’re wondering what three MOPs would do to the Three Gorges Dam.

\

/-)

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[rlmorel]

Just for context, 90% of Iranian oil via the Strait of Hormuz goes directly to Communist China. The Communists need to tread carefully.

This salient fact is not lost on the Communists, the Russians, the Iranians, or the Trump Administration. Everyone is cognizant. Closing down the Strait of Hormuz as they (and their allies in this country and around the world are nearly slaveringly breathless in their mouthing of this threat) like to constantly threaten has problems associated with it.

In 2025, oil shipped via the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 7% of our total oil imports (not 7% of our oil used in total, but 7% of all IMPORTS. Important distinction.

We import 10 million barrels of oil a day in the USA, and about half a million barrels of that oil comes from countries that ship it to us via the Strait of Hormuz.

For the USA, we are a bit player in that region now. The biggest are:

Saudi Arabia would not be happy if the Iranians shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

Then again, if the Iranian government shuts it down, they would cut their own throat. Part of me wishes they would. Imagine a world without Iran. (except for the Pistachios, of course)

[rlmorel]

See my post above at #33, of course the Communists are watching.

[cuz1961]

i saw an article yesterday that claimed that damn was so huge that it and the water behind it has altered the earths spin, made our day longer.

maybe if trump sees it as not only a threat to the us , but a real global threat ( unlike the climate grift )
it also deserves a b2 gbu57 visit.

[Carry_Okie]

Just for context, 90% of Iranian oil via the Strait of Hormuz goes directly to Communist China.

That is why I said what I did.

The Communists need to tread carefully.

So do we. Cut the jugular and they may retaliate. That is why I cited WWII Japan.

[rlmorel]

I don’t see Japan in 1936 seeking power through conquest of territory and Communist China in 2025 seeking power via dominance in industry and trade as the same thing.

The calculus is not the same.

That said, we are more over the barrel with industry and trade in 2025 with China than we were with Japanese conquest of territory for power in 1936 when they went into China.

Anyone who says there is no risk is whistling past the graveyard. But we should keep the risk in context.

Allowing a government (not just the people-the government) who , for the last 46 years have been screaming “Death to America” (and threatening to wipe both the United States and Israel off the map) to possess nuclear weaponry has far, Far, FAR greater inherent risk.

It has been my experience in life that when people threaten to kill you, it is the height of folly to ignore their threats as bluster.

Thanks to the Left in General, and the Biden Administration in particular, our country is wholly vulnerable to terrorist cells, and I fully expect Iran to leverage those as they attempt to develop “plausible deniability”. That is a risk we must accept.

[Carry_Okie]

The calculus is not the same.

You can do better than that. Please supply your rationale.

That said, we are more over the barrel with industry and trade in 2025 with China than we were with Japanese conquest of territory for power in 1936 when they went into China.

Not to mention that :public education" has assured that our people are now nowhere near as capable.

Thanks to the Left in General, and the Biden Administration in particular, our country is wholly vulnerable to terrorist cells, and I fully expect Iran to leverage those as they attempt to develop “plausible deniability”.

Actually, I would see the left using them to that end.

That is a risk we must accept undermine.

The real problem with the left is that their sponsors' ideological predispositions toward 'shaping a new world after catastrophe;' i.e., 'population reduction to protect the environment.' It's been the dominant thesis for 90 years. My research refutes its ecological, economic, and religious premises. We hardly have the capable labor available to keep native biodiversity alive and reproducing.

[unlearner]

Even Russia, North Korea, and China are taking a low-key response to the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The Democrats are Iran’s only true ally.

[logi_cal869]

Yes, “of course.”

Re the Straight: Forthcoming, “The Persian Gulf Turkey Shoot” and “TEL Hunt.”

I don’t think the CCP will care much if the price of oil averages sanity and they get the ELINT they seek. Iran will likely lash out.

BUT…

The worst thing Iran could do now is fill missiles with HEI and lob them at Gulf oil facilities.

The coming days/weeks should prove very interesting.