Envisioning a Hellscape: Ukrainian Lessons for a Taiwan Drone Strategy

U.S. Naval Institute ^ | April 2025 | First Lieutenant Hunter Keeley, U.S. Marine Corps

[Retain Mike]

Hellscape manifested publicly in the recent sale of more than 1,000 of Anduril’s Altius-600M and AeroVironment’s Switchblade-300 drones to Taiwan.3 While this is a logical first step—and understanding that much of the United States’ and Taiwan’s deterrent planning will not be found in the public sphere—lessons from Ukraine suggest a stockpile of high-end U.S. unmanned aerial systems (UASs) alone will be insufficient to darken the Taiwan Strait for a month.,P.

First, planners must reckon that 1,000 drones is not a lot. Across Ukraine’s 600-mile front line, where an actual Hellscape of unmanned systems has been brought into existence, Ukrainian forces are said to be expending approximately 10,000 drones per month.4 While this figure includes smaller and cheaper drones than those recently sold to Taiwan, it represents the steady outlay of a relatively stable conflict. In contrast, the opening volleys of unmanned systems between China and Taiwan should be expected to churn through thousands of UASs on a daily, if not hourly, basis.

To understand sheer mass of missiles and drones required to cause significant attrition in modern conflict, consider Iran’s 2023 attempted strike on Tel Aviv. Along with more than 100 ballistic missiles, approximately 170 Shahed-style loitering drones were launched toward Israel from Iranian soil. The strike was promptly swatted out of the sky by U.S. and Israeli air-defense systems.

China likely will have comparable, if not superior, air defenses covering its landing force and shoreline. Even though the U.S. drones sold to Taiwan are the larger Switchblade-600 and Altius-700—which are closer in size and range to the Shahed system than the Switchblade-300 or Altius-600M—the recent sale would give Taiwan just four or five volleys of this nature.

[Retain Mike]

War should become an even more unhappy experience than in the past. Winston Churchill who fought in India, Sudan and South Africa had this to say, “War, which used to be cruel and magnificent, has now become cruel and squalid. In fact, it has been completely spoilt. It is all the fault of democracy and science. From the moment that either of these meddlers and muddlers was allowed to take part in actual fighting, the doom of war was sealed. Instead of a small number of well-trained professionals championing their country’s cause with ancient weapons and a beautiful intricacy of archaic manoeuvre, sustained at every moment by the applause of their nation, we now have entire populations, including even women and children, pitted against one another in brutish mutual extermination, and only a set of blear-eyed clerks left to add up the butcher’s bill. From the moment democracy was admitted to, or rather forced itself upon the battlefield, war ceased to be a gentleman’s game. To hell with it!”

[DIRTYSECRET]

Article appears complicated. Not an easy read.

Ukraine is flat-easy to attack. Taiwan. Start with air assaults and finding a way to take out communications, satellites and cell towers. Amphibious attacks are too vulnerable.

Something tells me a blockade will start it up. Taiwan has the money and technology to fight. China can waste a million men and it won’t matter. Might as well get it over with.

[Uncle Miltie]

I was reflecting on the Indian American Wars, and how the norm of civilizations clashing is usually throughout history Total War, in which ALL assets of either side are attacked, including women, children, infrastructure, philosophies, economies, etc.

This is horrifying, of course, but sadly completely normal. In WWII we firebombed Dresden and Tokyo and many others, incinerating hundreds of thousands to millions of “innocent” civilians.

This is the way of man. Would that it were not. But don’t go and get all appalled when starting a war (Germany, Japan, hamass) to find that it sucks on an unimaginable scale and then whine about it. 12% of Germans died and 4% of Japanese in WWII. In comparison, the whiny little brats supporting hamass are sure that it’s “genocide” when a mere 2.5% (according to hamass) have died in the war they started by raping little babies, girls and women so hard they broke their pelvises before shooting them dead in the vagina.

[Leaning Right]

Churchill had a way with words. But war was never much of a “gentleman’s game”. Armies on the march ravaged the countryside. And woe to some civilian who objected to his chickens being stolen.

After a successful battle a medieval commander might yell “cry havoc”, meaning his soldiers were now free to plunder, rape, and pillage.

Not very gentlemanly.

[Leaning Right]

The butchery perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, 2023 was almost unimaginable, and certainly on the level of the worst Nazi atrocities in WW2.

But for some reason, Hamas and its supporters seem to be winning the propaganda war that has followed. It’s very puzzling and very disappointing. Disgusting, actually.

John Fetterman (of all people) gets it. He might be the only one on his side of the aisle who does.

[Retain Mike]

I’ll speculate that WW I would have been the first war in history where more combatant were killed than civilians, if it weren’t for the Turks going after the Armenians.

[Twotone]

But for some reason, Hamas and its supporters seem to be winning the propaganda war that has followed.

_____

I almost posted a terrific article from Spiked-online. You might enjoy it:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2025/04/08/johnny-rotten-is-right-hamas-is-a-gang-of-jew-exterminators/

[kvanbrunt2]

Not to brag and i am not a real expert at this stuff but i can code up arduino chips and connect up RC chips for cars and boat operations so i could probably make some of these to fly in formation etc.

[PIF]

China can waste a million men and it won’t matter.

—
That is the perception in the West. In China its a different matter. China’s population seems to have taken a drastic nose dive from an estimated 1.4 billion to 500-700 million. No one can say why - lots of speculation. A million dead troops would have a huge impact.

Mostly because there are no social services in China - families depend on their men to supply income, the loss of which would make millions homeless, destitute and street beggars ( which BTW have completely disappeared, according to reports ).

Such civil and social upheaval would directly threaten the CCP and its rule. The central Party rule is: nothing is allowed to threaten the Party.

So not only will China not lose a million men, it will not invade either. It will just continue to bluff, threaten, and issue strong propaganda statements in its multi-billion dollar worldwide propaganda campaign.