Krista McCarville and Kari Einarson
Posted on 04/03/2025 2:51:49 PM PDT by Jonty30
Estimating the exact economic opportunity cost that Canada has imposed on Alberta since 2015 is complex and involves analyzing multiple factors, including federal policies, taxation, regulatory changes, and their impact on Alberta’s key industries, particularly oil and gas. While precise figures are not universally agreed upon due to varying methodologies and assumptions, I can provide an informed estimate based on available data and economic trends.
Alberta’s economy is heavily tied to its energy sector, which has faced significant challenges since 2015 due to a combination of global oil price fluctuations and federal policies. A major point of contention is the cancellation or stalling of pipeline projects like Northern Gateway, Energy East, and Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX), alongside regulatory hurdles such as Bill C-69 (Impact Assessment Act) and Bill C-48 (Oil Tanker Moratorium Act). These policies have been criticized for limiting Alberta’s ability to export oil efficiently, potentially costing the province billions in lost investment and revenue.
One key data point comes from the period following the 2014-2015 oil price crash. According to economic analyses, Alberta lost over 100,000 jobs in high-wage sectors like oil and gas, construction, and professional services between 2014 and 2016, with a total income loss estimated at around CAD 75 billion per year during that downturn. While this spans slightly before 2015, the recovery was hampered by federal policies post-2015. For instance, the Canadian Energy Centre and other sources have suggested that between 2015 and 2020, cancelled or stalled energy projects—partly due to federal opposition or regulatory delays—represented over CAD 150 billion in lost investment opportunities for Alberta.
Another perspective comes from Alberta’s fiscal relationship with Canada through equalization payments and net federal transfers. From 2015 to 2023, Alberta contributed significantly more to federal revenues (via taxes from its resource wealth) than it received back in transfers. Historical data indicates Alberta has been a net contributor to Confederation by hundreds of billions since the 1960s, with annual net contributions often exceeding CAD 20 billion in the 2000s and early 2010s. Post-2015, with a weaker energy sector, this figure likely declined but still remained positive. Rough estimates based on economic commentary suggest Alberta’s net contribution to federal coffers from 2015 to 2023 could range between CAD 100 billion and CAD 150 billion, money that could have theoretically stayed in the province to bolster its economy.
Adding these factors together—lost investment from energy projects (CAD 150 billion+) and net fiscal transfers (CAD 100-150 billion)—a rough estimate of Alberta’s economic opportunity cost tied to federal policies and Canada’s broader framework since 2015 could range from CAD 250 billion to CAD 300 billion over the decade. This figure reflects foregone GDP growth, stalled infrastructure, and wealth transferred out of the province. However, this is a high-level approximation, as it doesn’t account for global market dynamics (e.g., the 2015-2016 oil glut) or provincial policy decisions that also influenced outcomes.
On the flip side, some argue that federal policies aimed at diversifying Canada’s economy and addressing climate goals have long-term benefits that might offset short-term losses for Alberta. Yet, for Alberta specifically, the immediate economic hit—particularly in the energy sector, which contributed over CAD 71.5 billion to Canada’s GDP in 2018 alone—remains a dominant narrative. In summary, while pinpointing an exact number is challenging without a comprehensive, province-specific econometric study, Alberta’s economic opportunity cost since 2015 due to Canada’s policies and fiscal structure likely falls in the range of CAD 250 billion to CAD 300 billion, driven by lost energy investments and net fiscal outflows. This estimate aligns with sentiments expressed by Alberta’s leadership and industry advocates, though it’s worth noting that economic interdependence with Canada also provides Alberta with benefits (e.g., trade access, national stability) that are harder to quantify.
Alberta should leave Canada 🇨🇦 and join the USA. The people would be much happier,healthier and wealthier.
I think so. I would vote for it if a vote came up.
Yes, make it the 51st state, not all of Canada.
Certainly sounds like Alberta would be much happier as a US State...
Approx 7400 per person per year for the past 10 years
Or Manitoba, Saskatchewan, AND Alberta.
Me, too. It can get wordy. Ask it to simply and summarize.
It’s been my go-to for quick answers to things and it’s far better than wading full of 20 Google hits. So many web pages are AI generated repetitive garbage these days.
I got a new iPhone yesterday and had to turn off a feature (it shut off my music in my EarPods when I spoke). The Apple sales guy at the Apple Store was very helpful, but he didn’t know how to turn that off. I couldn’t find it on the Apple Support site. A quick question to Grok and i had the answer in seconds.
Grok estimated the cost to Alberta has been CAD 250 billion to CAD 300 billion. That seems like a low estimate to me.
Alberta is more American than almost all of New England.
And Ontario west of Thunder Bay.
Krista McCarville and Kari Einarson
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