Posted on 03/10/2025 7:08:14 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
President Donald Trump declined to explicitly rule out a full-blown recession for the U.S. economy this year, telling Maria Bartiromo in a recent "Sunday Morning Futures" exclusive that the country will see a "period of transition" as his policies take effect.
"I hate to predict things like that," he said of a recession. "There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing… it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us."
The president's comments come amid some business leaders' instability concerns over tariffs imposed on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as growing concerns of a potential economic slowdown.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve has predicted a contraction of -2.8% in the first quarter, Bartiromo pointed out.
Goldman Sachs raised the expectations of a recession within the next 12 months to 20%, while JP Morgan says the probability of a recession stands at 35%.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick offered a more definitive answer when asked about the possibility of a recession on Sunday, telling NBC News' "Meet the Press" he would "never bet on" one.
"There's going to be no recession in America… no chance," he said.
What’s your du screen name, newbie troll. Piss off.
First one through the wall always gets bloody. Always.
Moneyball
However, the 2 consecutive quarterly declines in real GDP is a simple, neat, and wrong definition.
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
“The NBER’s definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria — depth, diffusion, and duration — as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, the committee concluded that the subsequent drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that, even if it proved to be quite brief, the downturn should be classified as a recession.”
Now, I agree that politics likely enter into the NBER process, ie the Biden years were recession-free…sure Jan, sure.
But 2+*-dGDPq isn’t a hard-coded def.
284 K AMERICAN Jobs created in Febuary.
In the short run tariffs can be rough - in the long run - as a tactic or a reality - they’ll help with what we’re dealing with.
Trump is in a great position.
He is not running for re-election.
He’s not thinking about the next election.
He could care less about the Republican wing of the uniparty.
What has it EVER done for him but sabotage his first term signature issue of building a wall?
He owes them nothing while they owe him a lot.
He won by a landslide and the uniparty stooges could not translate that to more than a five seat House majority.
That is political malfeasance on the part of those running for election.
Trump is not worried about no stinkin’ recession.
Why not?
Because he is smart enough to know that he is going to get FRAMED with one by all the two fisted economists and Elite Stream Media anyway.
Remember what Harry Truman said about economists being two-fisted because if you asked them a question they would use double speak by saying on one hand you have this but on the other hand you have this.
You can see it coming, Elite Stream Media and the Deep State is going to try to say the economy is much worse than it is.
Trump ain’t buying it, he is going for TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE now because he knows, it’s now or NEVER.
I mostly agree with you.
It WAS a hard-coded definition, but NBER is the final adjudicator.
Similar to “credit events”. An entity fails to make a loan payment. This should define DEFAULT, but it turns out there is an organization — part of the global deep state/swamp — and they decided what a credit event (default) is. When Greece missed payments, they were not declared in default, because there were global systemic aspects to such a declaration.
Economics is not a science. It’s all silliness. Only oil joules remain joules regardless of politics.
President Trump is in a great position. But it’s not as though he has a blank check from the American public.
He did not run on a “difficult transition” platform. If a downturn is prolonged and inflation doesn’t ease, his political capital will begin to dry up, both with the electorate and with the Congress.
“any one who thought there would not be a period of adjustment with all this good change is a fool.
Tough times is the cure. stay in the boat.”
Exactly. Nobody should expect there to be no pain or discomfort while we are trying to purge the toxins and poisons that the radical left has been inflicting us with over decades. It will take some time, but it’s a sort of ‘rehab’ period that we’re in... and we will come out of it much healthier... and with much less addiction to debt and much less theft due to corruption. God willing.
You express the conventional view.
But conventional views will not explain Trump or how he sees his last term.
It seems to me Trump is working on a two year time frame.
He fully understands that the economy may go into "recession" however that may be defined and however it may be manifest in the 21st century which may be quite different that a 20th century recession.
I think Trump understands it is quite possible that the Republican wing of the uniparty will lose the House in the midterms.
However Trump will NOT be constrained by the conventional considerations that have constrained most presidents.
Trump is a builder and he knows that demolition is the first step in the rebuilding process.
It is not pretty and many think that you do not have to demolish so much and all that is needed is a little tinkering.
That is how we got to where we are.
Thinking incremental change proposed by "collaborative" input can lead to improvement.
It hasn't and it never has.
Neither does following "conventional" political wisdom.
In the case of Greece’s default, it was cured in 20 days. Most indentures or agreements provide for a Cure Period. Indeed, in most US banks a loan is GENERALLY considered nonaccrual after 90 days of being past due.
I believe there were a number of situations involving derivatives where ISDA didn’t declare a default event, even though there was CLEARLY a default. However I may have my stories mixed-up.
I disagree that economics is all silliness. Economists can be silly. But as a social science (which is about three towns over from physics and ten towns over from mathematics, but is not in the Sociology red lights district) it’s a very solid way of evaluating the efficient allocation of scarce resources.
We’re probably 90% in agreement. Nowadays that’s a win. Be well.
H-1B = high tech human trafficking
While you are likely correct, that was not what was promised.
Is that what he said or not? Doesn’t this also fall under promises kept?
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