Posted on 03/05/2025 9:32:51 AM PST by Miami Rebel
The ink is barely dry on Trump’s 10% tariff on Canadian energy, and already, fuel prices are bracing for impact. As Gasbuddy's Patrick De Haan puts it, “The real-world impact of tariffs won’t be to shift refining patterns, instead, it will be to add costs throughout the system.” Translation? Expect to shell out more at the pump.
So why can’t U.S. refiners swap out Canadian crude for American oil? Simple: decades of infrastructure, billions in investment, and the laws of physics. The pipeline system serving the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Rockies was built to transport Canadian heavy crude south—not the light, sweet variety coming from Texas or North Dakota. That’s like asking a downhill skier to suddenly ski uphill.
Then there’s the small issue of refinery compatibility. The facilities designed for Canadian heavy crude aren’t just being picky—they literally can’t process light U.S. shale oil without a multi-billion-dollar retrofit. As GasBuddy explains, it’s like filling a diesel truck with regular gasoline. Could it be done? Sure, if you don’t mind catastrophic failure.
Where will it hurt most? According to Gas Buddy, the Northeast is first in line for sticker shock, as it depends heavily on refined products from Canada. Prices there could spike 20-40 cents per gallon by mid-March. The Midwest and Great Lakes regions, where Canadian crude feeds local refineries, will see increases of 5-25 cents per gallon in the coming weeks. The Rockies won’t be spared either, with hikes of 10-20 cents expected.
Meanwhile, oil prices have already dropped on the news, with WTI at $67.31 and Brent at $70.27—a sign that traders anticipate demand destruction. But don’t celebrate just yet. Those lower crude prices aren’t translating to savings at the pump. Instead, consumers are about to get caught between tariffs, refinery bottlenecks, and seasonal price hikes.
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
I think it's a good time to be buying pipeline stocks.
I neglected to mention that gasoline is down almost 3% today.
Haven't a lot of voters in the northeast for decades been supporting politicians who vow to raise energy prices to make us wean ourselves off of energy?
And I think Trump is expecting to lift the tariffs in a few days.
It’s $2.84 at one of my favorite stations
My small Alabama town (which charges more than a larger metro area) just went from $2.85 to $2.79 a gallon today.
$2.46 at Bucees in Auburn!
It’s like Trumps first term and what he did never happened. They are saying what they hope happens not what history suggests will happen.
$3.69 in WA, of course as high as possible for Mommy Erf.
Has he re-opened the Keystone XL pipeline?
Sheeeeeyit. We pay $1.50 in taxes per gallon here in Commiefornia and I’ve never heard this foo bitch about the impact on prices. And our roads are still pothole obstacle courses.
Something about the law of supply and demand was lost on whoever wrote this. No tariff will have as much effect on the pump price as (even the prospect of) increased domestic production of oil and a negotiated end to the Russian Ukraine war.
U R a TDS anti tariff troll. Go away.
Here’s hoping.
But the price of fentanyl will go way up as well. Nice trade to make.
WTI prices aren’t sent on increased production. that requires long-term investing and takes time to have any impact whatsoever. And as for Russia-Ukraine, again, that’d be great but it’s anyone’s guess when it’ll take place.
By the way, I think something that gets lost on the people who say “Drill, Baby, Drill!” is that if I’m running an E&P company, I’d have to have my head examined if I were to significantly expand drilling when I believe that prices are due to come down. Why spend money to make a low return on my investment. Projects that look good at $80 WTI can bleed producers dry at $45.
Keystone never went anywhere.
TC Energy spun off its oil pipeline business in October last year into a new company named South Bow Energy. President Trump said on Monday he wanted the pipeline built, but South Bow said it had moved on.
TC Energy has sought to recover more than $15 billion from the U.S. government for cancellation of the project.
I own both South Bow (SOBO) and TC Energy (TRP.)
Gas is down from 2.89 last month to 2.64 same station now
DNC actions drove refineries out of US. Ditto for production and transport — except for RR owners that profited when the Keystone was killed.
Critics of tariffs are extraordinarily stoopid, even for Demos. Short term the (subsidized) suppliers will take a hit at sales — which will force sales back to US suppliers. Price increase? Sure. So wut? Buy American has always been more expensive. But, pull yer head out. Producing American means more jobs in US — and the $$ stay here.
Longer term, this will incent US producers to move production and jobs back to US — so that tariffs become less important to the market.
Communists are not real big on supply and demand. Midway down he says oil is down but gas is up.
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